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Legion of the Ten Crores

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Everything posted by Legion of the Ten Crores

  1. I know we’ve got a lot of big movies in the pipe right now, but BOP does have Many Saints doing like 10M and Addams like 15 for the upcoming weekend, which are bigger than anything the past few weeks. If anybody is planning to track them, a quick glance in the next 35 hours or so would be appreciated.
  2. I will be extremely shocked, I thought that was like a 3-6M kind of flick.
  3. Yeah, unclear how much they'll blow their load, but... we are talking about Sony here. If they put in like Tobey vs Dafoe, Cox, and a 3 spideys shot it's not obvious to me it would decrease. There's plenty of other stuff that could make the internet go bonkers tbh. This is just me brainstorming and not based on any rumors -- I doubt most of it is even in the movie. But stuff like: Kingpin or other Netflix characters She-hulk Tom Hardy Spider-verse miles A spider-gwen 3 spideys talk about uncle Ben Tobey giving great power responsibil
  4. Apparently this does give SC the MCU record for days at #1. TA and IW were stopped convincingly by MIB3 and DP2, whereas BP lost to Wrinkle in time by 200k with previews rolled in.
  5. Welcome! If your first wknd here was the SC weekend I guess you already know whose projections to pay attention to 👀😉
  6. All good points. On the other hand, range balancing is really more of an art than a science, right @Shawn? For instance, NTTD is currently (for free folks) 56-85. Now, the range could have been 55-86 instead. That's strictly less informative, but also strictly more likely to contain the true OW, without changing the point estimate. On the other hand, the range provided could have been 57-84 -- same average, strictly more informative, strictly less likely to contain the true OW. Unless they are intended as 90% confidence intervals or some other quantitative measure
  7. For sure. DEH like 2.5 vs SC 3.5+ -- I actually don't think DEH will win even with previews rolled in.
  8. I don’t know that reviews really matter here. Hoping for a fun photo finish vs Free Guy in the 125-135 zone.
  9. Could you go into more detail on your comp process? I notice these don’t quite line up with a basic “ticket #/ticket # * comp movie preview.” Edit: Nevermind, I was looking at the wrong numbers like an idiot.
  10. Wonder what % of November this can pull. DS1 and Ragnarok won their Novs, but by relatively paltry margins (22% and 28%). Though actually, it looks like the typical November schedule with Thanksgiving leads to a very evenly spread out month — the largest % of November was claimed by F2 with just 28.1%! Eternals should beat that with ease given what the month looks like.
  11. 50% drops? Is that from medium reception, harsh upcoming competition, or just how the market is (I think of Taiwan as having solid legs bit it’s biased by mostly only paying attention to runs that are big, which are disproportionately likely to be having far better than usual legs).
  12. I know there's estimated hour adjustment, but that makes it better to check pace rather than worse (though gotta make sure hours are lined up for the other movie, which I forgot about here). And it was over 3 days, so some decent averaging out of errors. Could try an average pace over like 5 or 7 days instead to smooth out even more, but then you're getting different parts of the U curve and have more stale data so it's harder to capture recent movement.
  13. You seem to think the MCU is more fanheavy than it really is. This was an issue around this time in SC run iirc. SC isn't a perfect comp by any means, I think it will improve on a straight SC comp for sure though. F9 may be an issue in the other direction though. Anyway, agree on bolded. Not that interested in this movie to begin with, so "wait and see" sounds like a good way to go.
  14. Got SC 10-7 at about $150k or $50k/day from @charlie Jatinder sheet. Didn't realize the V2 t-10 was from 9AM, thanks for pointing that out. Makes the numbers even worse. If it runs like 80% of SC from here that wouldn't be bad per se (certainly kills my club) but I struggle to see where Keyser is getting 9 either.
  15. Yeah, the review drop complicates stuff but it's also the case that V2 has no review bump coming up to compensate 😆
  16. The reason I’m waiting another few days is to see how it can do vs SC in run rate as we approach that critical final week. For the first few days after t-10 it seems to be pacing around 100% at mtc1 and more like 60% MTC2.
  17. Yeah, I mean, usually a disagreement in final projection will come down to what is being assumed for final few day growth, right? I think this will beat SC in % growth since it has a smaller base, but I don’t know about beating SC final few days in raw sales, which would certainly be needed to go past 8.5 given the comparable PTA. The F9 comp will end up being a bit misleading imo, but it’s hard to say for sure ‘til we see it.
  18. MTC data looks more like 7-8 to me, will try a more detailed projection in a few more days of data.
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