Legion Again

Predicting G:Empire to open with 40-60M

Starting so early for a small nonIP like this basically makes any D1 stuff useless, as well as the middle period. I wouldn’t want to draw anything but the most broad conclusions (“looks like single digits guys”) until at least like t-10

My first comment was going to be that I think the baseline scenario would be lognormal rather than normal… but the 2nd graph (with exponential x-axis) basically covers that perfectly. And we did indeed get my suspected triple peak, exactly where I was suspecting it Perhaps unsurprisingly this would be my 2nd comment, although it shouldn’t make a huge difference in 2015vs 2019 or 2021 vs 2024 I feel like nominal introduces a bit of noise whereas admits/adjusted would reveal more of a real pattern across time. Definitely not going to change the big picture takeaway though. If we didn’t pull anything 90-100 then the 100-110ish range is suppressed a bit by only getting 50%+ of the adjacency window that the other values have, right? This is another thing that doesn’t really affect the main point just want to make sure I’m understanding the process correctly. The lowest hanging fruit going forward imo would be seeing the graphs for like 5% or 20%, but this is already a very cool dynamic to have quantified a bit more

Hmm, I guess Panda could kill gap 🤔

Look if you wanna sell “Turning White” to the boys in marketing, be my guest

Ooh, that’s a great choice of metric. Although, I feel like +/- 10% would also be very interesting. And of course you can turn parameters up or down — I wonder if it’s possible to get a meaningful triple peak

Gotta initiate talks for Turning Redder

All one tick below genre avg, how sad

I mean, it was a better guess for OWeek then total — but it basically came true for total, so very much a moment

We are still talking quite a bit down from KFP2 tickets tbf

Yeah I feel like mostly thread had been expecting/I had been expecting based on thread 3-4*12-15ish, which comes out to 41-53 or so.

Pretty crazy moment for "since last summer" when you consider that the two films combined don't make for an especially large number of tickets

I mean I was OUT at closing time, so

No it had the expected Previews of 12 and expected IM of 7. The Golden Path

Still nothing 216-298 since SC

Sat PS looks good, maybe 33-29-22

11.5-21-25-18.5// 76

😈

HummingLemon pulling zaslav's strings

The prophecy marches on

Always hard to tell how much being an aging franchise with some aging fanbase will weigh on the scale until it happens but I have been thinking like 12-15x fwiw

and this is how I learned that the Fall Guy movie people have been talking about was not a years late video game adaptation

I mean in general a performance is always a bit of movie specifics+background market content, right. The bad news here is that even if you think the background market context is reasonably healthy there are very few movies this years with the specifics to do serious biz

That was for 2023 release Dune Here is 2024 release Dune My prediction a few hours ago would be 11*6.73

Just popping in briefly at the tail end of things here: size adjusted comp from rehpyc (-JW) T-7 to T-2 11.1, 10.8, 10.6, 10.3, 10.6, 10.55 Fairly steady, but I would guess t-1 will be ~10.0 based on how other regions are faring Personally thinking ~ 2+9*8=74 — that IM seems high from fundamentals, but fss sales are solid, so 🤷‍♂️ Perhaps low PSm’s will resolve the tension Sounds like you guys had some exciting days but from perspective of D1 to T-1 semi checked out guy seems very little has happened 😂