Legion Again

Just popping in briefly at the tail end of things here: size adjusted comp from rehpyc (-JW) T-7 to T-2 11.1, 10.8, 10.6, 10.3, 10.6, 10.55 Fairly steady, but I would guess t-1 will be ~10.0 based on how other regions are faring Personally thinking ~ 2+9*8=74 — that IM seems high from fundamentals, but fss sales are solid, so 🤷‍♂️ Perhaps low PSm’s will resolve the tension Sounds like you guys had some exciting days but from perspective of D1 to T-1 semi checked out guy seems very little has happened 😂

Just that there have only been a small handful of movies post NWH that I’ve gotten interested in enough to really get into the nitty gritty on predicting them. My best work was in like 2019 and 2021 imo

Best I think I can realistically hope for is Loki (I hate it but goes over okay with GA)

Hi 👋 It’s fine making another one as long as you aren’t evading but I bet the admins can find your old info if you want it

I’d be shocked if this clears a 5.5x IM but previews should be 25-33ish I guess

Nah, the R rated isn’t a huge barrier and 250M isn’t even really that big anymore in terms of how many people show up. It’d still be a much less impressive opening than say Matrix Reloaded and par-ish with Passion of Christ. Like +33% DP1 admits on true FSS.

Last 6 mcu did poorly welcome to Doomer Legion era

I’m not really quite sure how that even happened tbh. I do think I’m usually pretty solid (shocking 😛 ) when I really pay attention to a movie’s data but I’ve only done that a handful of times in the past 2 years or so

It’s true, every word from my keyboard is pure unadulterated facts of the future Anyway from 2012 to 2019 it was was hard to go wrong betting on the MCU, but from 2022 through 2023 it’s more like hard to go wrong betting against the MCU, so… I’m torn on this one. If they all released in an environment of equal franchise health, pretty confident this would be the 2nd biggest post Infinity Saga after NWH, with maybe 250/600/1.3B or whatever. As is, not really feeling confident it can match MoM/BP2 kind of nums. The trailer was eh for me, needed more kick (prolly wolverine), though the title suggests that will be coming. Extreme concerns about quality given heavy TVA involvement. I’ll throw out like 140/350/750 with some room for upside if the product delivers

Those are at least both female led marvel movies! It’s not crazy to think that one performance might have some useful info for the other. Web and Dune have almost nothing in common 😛

I would, in general, strongly caution against this sort of reasoning. If movie A does much better than you expected it’s a sign that movie A had more interest than you thought, not that movie B will have more interest than you’d thought!

Haven’t been looking closely at Dune and don’t plan to, but being a sequel instead of a first entry is another pretty important variable. Verrrrrrrry loosely from this start thinking like 8-12*6-7.5 for 55-75ish

Now that L&T is out it’s actually quite an interesting parallel to 84 especially with both of the predecessors being 2017.

The problem with this comp of course being reception. If WW84 was received like WW1 I would say more like 180/525/1.1 or something

Depends on the release date. Before COVID it was scheduled for June 5 2020, so assuming that I would say perhaps 110/275/550? That’s a very crude estimate at this point though, I bet I said something in the thread for it like 3 years ago and I’d put more trust in that num whatever it was 😂

The numbers shows 106 for calendar gross (including 24 holdovers, releases,etc). Mojo agrees. For in year releases mojo showing 100 exactly and don’t see anything else that could get in without significant rerelease

Soul had very good reception and legs internationally in its original release despite the ease of piracy from the release model. I do feel good about hitting 300+ dom still in a world where COVID never happened.

An excellent point. TLJ did 2.1x OWeek whereas TCP will miss so much as 1.45x — Jedi redeemed by facts and logic

Thinking Godzilla will finish between Hero and Life is Beautiful @Brainbug

Wonder if ABY can be #2 next wknd 🤔

Smh kids these days don’t even know their 40 year old political ad references I think lemon was just talking about me though 😛

It’s morning in America, bodes well for Nov 😎

I mean we’ve still just got one day or hard data but that looks about right

Looking at any Sats here @keysersoze123? Or all eyes on Xmas at this point?

One claim I’m relatively confident making already is that the midpoint will be closer than either of our doms. Another W for wisdom of the crowd aggregation 😛