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Arendelle Legion

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Everything posted by Arendelle Legion

  1. Frozen 3 or Incredibles 3 seem like the most obvious candidates to me.
  2. How’s Brahms OD looking, if it’s not too much trouble. As putrid as the Thurs?
  3. Black Christmas 10 Underwater 17 Horror has been on an epic streak since the holiday season began.
  4. Haha, brutal commentary on F2. I kind of agree though. This market was a disappointment in the end.
  5. Yes, it is. Smaller films are going to come out, sure, that we expect to miss 1B. But just because we expect them to be low doesn’t mean they aren’t low.
  6. Frozen 2 will likely win in Deadline’s profit estimates. The diff of 200M in gross is about 90M in revenue given their similar DOM/OS-C/C splits, so Frozen’s 110M advantage in production budget will put it ahead.
  7. Well, below 1B is a bit of a disappointing result for an MCU movie at this point. Don’t see what’s so inflated about that.
  8. ThFSS equivalent for FFH was only 140 or so imo. Doubtful SM3 can 200 even with the cliffhanger.
  9. Not great for Sonic, not awful. This thread being so dead is kind of a bummer, albeit many OS threads are dead right now because we’re lacking in movies doing big OS business. If someone provides me a source for where to see weekend numbers (is $R or USD) I’ll make sure there’s at least one post per weekend.
  10. Shazam OS-C-J 15.7 WTh 56.3 FSS 30.4 weekdays 31.3 2nd wknd BOP 7.8 WTh (49.7%) 38.7 FSS (68.7%) 14.1 weekdays 23 2nd wknd (73.5%) Shazam added ~50M after 2nd weekend, maybe 40-50M for BoP although possible VD bump makes me nervous. OS still headed for about 125+5 from J imo, exactly what I had last weekend. DOM maybe 95, 225 or so finish.
  11. People hoping VGMs will be the CBMs of the 20s just don’t want to acknowledge that CBMs will be the CBMs of the 20s.
  12. Sonic targeting Bad Boys opening figures. Jumanji targeting a 10th weekend above Endgame. Now, I know what you’re thinking — “but Arendelle, wasn’t Endgame notoriously frontloaded? Are its late weekends really meaningful comparison to anything?” Well the thing is... that was the weekend it got rereleased and increased over 200%
  13. This doesn’t seem at all realistic with the history of kids/family bumps on the post-Pres Friday. E.g. 5 2 The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part $2,192,036 +94.9% -50.2% 3,833 $571 $75,796,075 15 6 4 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $1,346,038 +132.3% -27.9% 2,519 $534 $382,980,253 66 4 2 Peter Rabbit $2,845,620 +116.3% -30.1% 3,707 $767 $61,591,322 15 2 2 The Lego Batman Movie $4,249,572 +136.9% -42.2% 4,057 $1,047 $118,256,150 15 4 2 Kung Fu Panda 3 $2,875,390 +131.6% -25.3% 3,448 $833 $107,479,974 22 4 3 The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water $4,013,127 +108.4% -37.9% 3,680 $1,090 $113,684,961 15 1 1 The Lego Movie $7,275,739 +169.2% -43.2% 3,890 $1,870 $158,985,835 15 9 5 Frozen $1,023,438 +125.6% -40.1% 1,891 $541 $380,727,773 92 I think you’re underestimating the effect of the weekday break. Thursday being just 33% bigger turns a +200% Fri into a +125% Fri.
  14. Sunday being inflated hurts the 3-day multiplier though. Someday I will look more thoroughly into how those two factors net out with each other.
  15. Optimistic: 3-18-23-18-13 (75M 4-day/62M OW) 5-3.5-3 (86.5 Oweek) 6.5-13-8.5 28M 2nd wknd (-55%) 1.5 (116M 11-day, 41M Tues-Mon) 116+41*5/3=184M
  16. I don’t think it’s a Great idea to complain Now about specific aspects Of a movie when we Really don’t know how things will be Executed
  17. What about the 300M+ hit currently making over 6M in its 10th weekend 😛
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