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Lokis Legion

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Everything posted by Lokis Legion

  1. I’m back in the Bay Area right now and it’s nuts how many stores are still requiring masks for no reason. Feels like one of the slowest regions in the nation to return to normalcy behaviorally despite having great virus numbers for a long time now.
  2. Man, just great numbers this week. It feels like March 12-March 19 2020, but in reverse. Expecting Wednesday to be even better, with perhaps a weekly increase or two. Unless the Friday jumps suck this is a really really good sign for the summer imo.
  3. Some Juneteenth going on today, unclear just how much, so watch out
  4. (3) Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway Sony Pictures $833,787 -55% -11% 3,346 $249 $21,140,834 11
  5. Shaft went +9% on its OW despite awful reception and R rating. It’s absolutely true that this Father’s Day underperformed relative to Sat — but the Sat was stronger than the last few Sats. Imo Sat had a little Juneteenth boost and that’s why even the strongest Father’s Day movies decreased from it slightly.
  6. WB screwed up the movie more. Conditional on having the movie they have I think they released it fine — does anyone think this would have avoided flopping with a different release date, marketing, or even distribution plan? It just doesn’t connect that much with prospective audiences. Disney screwed up the release more imo. Even if they really want it as a D+ goodie could go 0-day free hybrid and pick up some additional $$.
  7. Please don’t make claims like this unless you actually know what you’re talking about. GvK had Father’s Day+Canada, not fudging. You can see a very similar drop from Demon Slayer this weekend, and even Cruella and AQP2 are in a pretty similar ballpark.
  8. BOM does just suck since the redesign. This might be pretty close to what you want though the musical category is a little fuzzy to begin with imo. https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/genres/musical
  9. As I remarked some time ago this seemed inevitable in time for BW, and it has been one factor (mildly) increasing my expectations for continued healthy sales. I wasn’t sure they’d do it in time for F9, could add a couple % there I suppose.
  10. From Deadline today (emphasis mine): This doesn’t appear to be live yet, probably sometime this week. It will leave a lot of 1 seat openings in attractive BW showtimes 😆
  11. Boxofficemojo Guru has DS at 240 vs 300 last weekend, cume of 48.8. 50M should happen with even a few hundred k from Canada.
  12. From following the PS pretty closely, I’d take 65->175. Summer legs should be better than Easter legs. That would indeed be pretty in line with other countries, basically 0 % down from my non-pandemic expectations.
  13. Cruella Sun looks a little optimistic to me — is this really a Father’s Day movie?
  14. A matter of expectations I guess. From a 1.3 True Wed it could have done something truly dreadful (say, 1.3 1.1 2 2.4 2.4 for 12M). The Fri jump was pretty robust and I now think it’s heading for more like 11M on the 3-day, which could take it to 35Mish. Considering the fluky circumstances behind the 1st I was never expecting much more for it.
  15. Est revenue is up 62% in MTC2 but only 60% in MTC1 vs last week?
  16. In the Heights is Out of the Top 5s Nice for AQP2 at least, and solid for Cruella/HWB
  17. This doesn’t explain the temporal backloadedness of the negative reviews, which was far outside the norm. I don’t think there’s much conspiracy-ish to “digital pressers made it easier than usual for only friendly critics to see it first.”
  18. I think the WW84 review trajectory was caused in part by the lack of physical screenings. It let them really target who to send the movie to initially. I doubt we see something like that now that things have largely returned to normal in terms of screenings.
  19. F9 long range tracking history: 6/18/21 -- 50-70 (geomean 59) 5/14/21 -- 60-90 (geomean 73) I thought we had got some before the shutdown, but actually we didn't. BW long range tracking history: 6/18/21 -- 65-90 (geomean 77) 3/6/20 -- 90-130 (geomean 108) So BW is ~30% below the pre-covid forecast, would be closer without PA.
  20. Some Long range tracking factoids: For a 100M OW, BW would need to beat the initial OW point estimate by 30%. This has happened 5/21 times (afaik no long range tracking was issued for IM1 or Hulk) -- 24%. Alternatively 3/17 solos (18%), 2/6 summer releases (33%), or 1/5 July releases (20%). Full list: TFA, TA, gotg, BP, Endgame. To go below a 150 total, it would need to go below the initial total point estimate by 20%, which has happened 0/21 times -- though AoU was close. Accordingly, there will be no bonus option for my club after all, it is already a nice b
  21. Also general reopening and Canada specifically could help legs a little bit compared to, say, Spider-man. It is pretty sui generis but I'd say that's more a reason to crank variance on the legs up than mean down.
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