Yep, SC is the bar.
Alternatively if Sonic 2 is around the first or worse and Morbius breaks out, we have a realistic shot at achieving an all CBM post-pandemic top 10 weekend grosses
(NWH, DS2, Bat, V2, BW, SC, Et, Morb, +NWH&DS2 2nd weekends)
March 25-April 22 is a 5 week stretch with a lot of releases. Will be the first time the market is out of “domination by a single CBM” mode since dec. Then we go back to that mode for a month or so, and Lightyear Dominion combo is when we permanently get back to a normal schedule.
Quite frankly, it’s surprising that omicron took this long. It’s pretty clearly past the containment phase now, probably gonna rack up over 500M infections on the next couple months, reaching every region. Depending on the attempted government+Societal response could pretty much wipe out BO until June.
To formalize this observation a bit:
NWH Sat %
Dog %
uncharted %
nwh%/dog%
Nwh%/uncharted%
3/12/22
169.8%
164.9%
3/5/22
192.0%
170.0%
164.0%
113%
117%
2/26/22
212.0%
193.0%
181.0%
110%
117%
2/19/22
182.0%
147.8%
139.4%
123%
131%
Sat bumps are weaker OW, so I wouldn’t pay too much mind to 2/19. The other two are pretty consistent. Uncharted and dog are identical bumps as last Sat per EC’s latest updates, so Occam’s razor suggest 92% for NWH for 1.84M. That would be disappointing without the snow but with it, harder to judge. I would hope for perhaps a 25% Sun drop to a 4.2M wknd (7% drop) but more conservatively perhaps 4.1M (9% drop).