Jump to content

Legion Again

Gold Account
  • Posts

    22,369
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    17

Posts posted by Legion Again

  1. 39 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

     

    Fall Guy seems to lean a lot on its romantic angle, much more than Bullet Train or Free Guy. As in, probably enough to bring quite a few women to the theater, something that I doubt Free Guy or Bullet Train did.

     

    I'm bullish on it, studio seems bullish on it as well, it has a lot going for it both with men and women, and it seems that it picked its leads perfectly for a movie coming out in 2024.

     

    I think it can break 200M if the quality is there.

    and this is how I learned that the Fall Guy movie people have been talking about was not a years late video game adaptation 

  2. 10 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

    9xatk7luc1lc1.png?auto=webp&s=6d4376453c

     

    tumblr_n3mci9MIxA1roja8qo1_500.gif

    That was for 2023 release Dune

    On 1/27/2024 at 8:14 AM, Legion Again said:

    Haven’t been looking closely at Dune and don’t plan to, but being a sequel instead of a first entry is another pretty important variable. Verrrrrrrry loosely from this start thinking like 8-12*6-7.5 for 55-75ish

    Here is 2024 release Dune

     

    My prediction a few hours ago would be 11*6.73 ;) 

    • Heart 1
  3. On 2/26/2024 at 7:33 PM, rehpyc said:

     

     

    I guess I'm really just here to confirm what the other great trackers have indicated.. current trajectories of each of the mentioned comps are looking around a 10M average (excluding EA) should their current growth patterns remain. Avatar, Dune, and Oppenheimer are particularly flat and likely the best indicators, indicating a range about 9-10M, with Oppenheimer edging that lower end.

     

    Dune 2 T-7 to T-4 (excluding EA)

    Oppenheimer: 9.65, 9.46, 9.28, 9.09

    Avatar 2: 9.60, 9.59, 9.61, 9.52

    Dune 1: 10.13, 10.06, 10.01, 10.02

    Jurassic World 😧 15.26, 14.82, 14.46, 13.85

    Barbie: 16.70, 15.63, 14.77, 13.73

     

    8 hours ago, rehpyc said:

    A bit late on providing an update on this from yesterday's sales, but I'm trying to stay on top of things as best I can for you all.

     

    Dune 2 T-3 to T-2 (excluding EA)

    Oppenheimer: 9.40, 9.38

    Avatar 2: 10.22, 10.52

    Dune 1: 10.34, 10.36

    Jurassic World: apparently I deleted it?

    Barbie: 13.28, 12.64

    Just popping in briefly at the tail end of things here:

    size adjusted comp from rehpyc (-JW) T-7 to T-2

    11.1, 10.8, 10.6, 10.3, 10.6, 10.55

     

    Fairly steady, but I would guess t-1 will be ~10.0 based on how other regions are faring

     

    Personally thinking ~ 2+9*8=74 — that IM seems high from fundamentals, but fss sales are solid, so 🤷‍♂️

     

    Perhaps low PSm’s will resolve the tension 

     

    Sounds like you guys had some exciting days but from perspective of D1 to T-1 semi checked out guy seems very little has happened 😂

    • Heart 1
    • Thanks 2
  4. 5 hours ago, MAZE animations said:

    Hi guys, it's me Logansluckyrun

    Don't know if you remember me but I used to hang around until 2020 or so. I made a new account bc I couldn't remember any of the login stuff for my old one.

    Im so excited for DP3.

    Also, where can I change my profile picture?

     

    Its not against the rules to make a different account is it? I was never suspended on my old one.

     

    Hi 👋 

     

    It’s fine making another one as long as you aren’t evading but I bet the admins can find your old info if you want it :) 

    • Like 1
  5. 4 hours ago, YM! said:

    Tbh even assuming an environment that the MCU was healthy, 250m OW for an R rated movie wouldn’t happen. Not even too sure about 200m.

    Nah, the R rated isn’t a huge barrier and 250M isn’t even really that big anymore in terms of how many people show up. It’d still be a much less impressive opening than say Matrix Reloaded and par-ish with Passion of Christ. Like +33% DP1 admits on true FSS.

  6. On 2/11/2024 at 4:32 PM, HummingLemon496 said:

    We need the prophet @Legion Again to give his prediction for this

     

    On 2/11/2024 at 9:42 PM, HummingLemon496 said:

    No, that's u/Sliver__Legion or @Legion Again

     

    Everything he says is the truth ;)

    It’s true, every word from my keyboard is pure unadulterated facts of the future

     

    Spoiler

    In a, you know, multiversal sense :ph34r:


    Anyway from 2012 to 2019 it was was hard to go wrong betting on the MCU, but from 2022 through 2023 it’s more like hard to go wrong betting against the MCU, so… I’m torn on this one. If they all released in an environment of equal franchise health, pretty confident this would be the 2nd biggest post Infinity Saga after NWH, with maybe 250/600/1.3B or whatever.   
     

    As is, not really feeling confident it can match MoM/BP2 kind of nums. The trailer was eh for me, needed more kick (prolly wolverine), though the title suggests that will be coming. Extreme concerns about quality given heavy TVA involvement.   
     

    I’ll throw out like 140/350/750 with some room for upside if the product delivers

    • Like 2
  7. 22 minutes ago, fede75 said:

    yeah, that's similar to the " if the marvels underperform a lot then madame web is obviously going to underperform a lot" that a lot had two months ago and were clearly wrong

    Those are at least both female led marvel movies! It’s not crazy to think that one performance might have some useful info for the other. Web and Dune have almost nothing in common 😛 

  8. 3 hours ago, iEnri said:

    If Madame Web somehow makes over 30M opening weekend, dune is locked to make over 75M because it has way more hype than that mess

    I would, in general, strongly caution against this sort of reasoning.  
     

    If movie A does much better than you expected it’s a sign that movie A had more interest than you thought, not that movie B will have more interest than you’d thought!

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
  9. 2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

    Unrelated, but how much would have this movie done in normal times (OW/DOM/WW)?

     

    Kristen Wiig Ww84 GIF by Wonder Woman Film

    Depends on the release date. Before COVID it was scheduled for June 5 2020, so assuming that I would say perhaps 110/275/550? That’s a very crude estimate at this point though, I bet I said something in the thread for it like 3 years ago and I’d put more trust in that num whatever it was 😂

  10. 5 hours ago, grim22 said:

    Last Jedi was the last movie before The Colour Purple released during the Christmas holidays to get an A Cinemascore and not get a 3x multiple from OW.

     

    5 hours ago, JustLurking said:

    Technically speaking TCP is over 5x its OW 😉

    An excellent point.  
     

    TLJ did 2.1x OWeek whereas TCP will miss so much as 1.45x — Jedi redeemed by facts and logic

  11. 3 hours ago, Porthos said:

     

     

    Reasonably sure you're misinterpreting Legion's subtext here. 😉 

     

    (which is fine as I think the folks who left reactions on Legion's post misinterpreted it as well.)

    Smh kids these days don’t even know their 40 year old political ad references

     

    I think lemon was just talking about me though 😛 

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.