Legion Again

I guess other movies will give us a pretty good indication of how weather depressed fri was.

Jesus, a 25% jump. That's waaaaaay different than the last few.

Hard to tell with the weather, but I like my spot

That’s better for moonfall than I expected then, probably 9ish

It’s hard to say exactly how the lingering meteorological issues will affect Sat/Fri, but fwiw Jackass 3 and 2 both dropped 14% on Sat from Fri despite good reception. There’s a real degree of fanrush to these things.

Big boy Fri Maybe 22-24ish

2-4.2-2.9 9.1

Huh? The SB only borders Valentine’s like 28% of the time

Just wait for 2027 when the Superbowl is on Valentine's day and is also Pres Eve.

Despite my personal revulsion to all the marketing material I’ve been exposed to from the franchise, yeah. Jackass 3D’s Ow was jussssst outside the top 100, ~77M today by rank.

Great to hear, Nile may be my only theater movie between Spider and Bat.

Yes

Man I forgot CM’s run was crazy long. Stupid FFH with its stupid Tuesday release 😒 Those+joker are the 3 2019 CBMs with reasonably close overall expectations, but yeah, I guess neither really work. BW isn’t the worst thing in the world… I guess.

Well, to get a little more nuanced, generally when people say “$ABC comping from xyz” they mean “if its relative sales from here until day 0 match xyz, here’s what the comparison to xyz final sales gives.” So like, using the same reference movie for remaining growth pace and for final sale:gross calculation. Which is convenient, but not really logically required in any way. I think the latter becomes outdated more quickly, whereas the former is more sensitive to raw size/hype/intensity of day1 rush and such. So I would probably reject any 2021s for pace, and reject any 2019 or older for final sale calculations, and want to stick some 2019 trending patterns into 2021 final sales ratios.

NWH seems terrible in the opposite direction, whereas BW/sc/Eternals are a bit too small. I will probably want to look at some 2019s as annoying as that is.

Is this really true, or do we just see examples where negative news catches more attention than positive news catch more attention than examples where positive news catches more attention than negative news Seems to me like NWH vs Moonfall vs Jackass OD could end up in any permutation this weekend,

Jesus, is that the thread we’ve been in Somebody should just move this crap to the jackass thread, my b

Fwiw, the fact that it looks like it should be a 5M Dom total movie to me makes the sales seem more impressive, not less. I am definitely following the sales closely and it will probably be one of the top openers this Feb, so that's something. I think the main issue here is condescendingly implying that true box office followers should be familiar with this franchise, which at the end of the day is still small potatoes with a fairly specific audience appeal and has been long dormant.

If it's not obvious why a new entry in Dom top 3 is more exciting than a movie opening 10% of a recent OW, don't really know what more to say.

You seem to think following box office means needing to care about every movie, even ones basically making pennies. I assure you, this is very much not the case.

I seem to recall some rather low numbers from you as well from the first few weeks

Also, 150M is puny. 3D was the highest performing one at what, like barely top 25 of the year or so? It's not like the movies are big enough that you would should just know them by their box office legend or something.

Gotta say, did not see this of all things becoming a points of contention 😂 The last entry was 12 years ago. Many board members were literal middle schoolers at the time and not following BO. Now in one sense that's the exact jackass target demo, but on the other hand almost all of these people were middle school nerds which is like the antithesis of the target demo. If you weren't following BO in 2010 and aren't a stunt comedy fan there's really no reason why you would ever have heard of it.

I agree that the info is still valuable if you know whether someone is a pessimistic and you should adjust their nums up or an optimist and you should adjust their nums down -- but newer people aren't going to know and ideally shouldn't have to try to keep track of those idiosyncratic prediction tendencies of long time members. Really it is best to always aim for pure accuracy rather than either conservative or aggressiveness.

Yeah, to be a little more serious I'm familiar with plenty of movies, but jackass is a nice low profile franchise. It's not exactly odd to have been unfamiliar with it.