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Legion Again

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    Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    54 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Day 1 forecast you say? Hmmm

     

     

    I'll let you figure out the geomean of those ranges

    James Franco Flirt GIF

      Legion Day 1 M37 Day 1 Halfway
    Th 3.674234614 4.472135955 4.053600464
    IM 5.477225575 6.123724357 5.791460926
    OW 20.1246118 27.38612788 23.4762687
    Legs 4.472135955 5.215361924 4.829472806
    DOM 90 142.8285686 113.3780013


     

    👍

    • Thanks 1

    Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    20 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

     

    Completely unrelated but. . .

     

    you said 3.5 --> 20 --> 85 :hahaha:

     

    tumblr_n3mci9MIxA1roja8qo1_500.gif

     

    /s (I don't care it was close enough anyway)

    I said 3-4.5*5-6*4-5, jury is still out ;) 

     

    Those geomean to 90 which I still think may be within 15% or so which would be pretty good for a day 1 forecast 😛 

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    And a quick check in from me on AQM Sacto after porthole noted it as an overperformingnmarket:

    11 hours ago, Porthos said:

     

    Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-4]

    930/16554 (5.62% sold) [+60 tickets] 98 showtimes

     

    1.03911x TSS: at T-4                   [4.82m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
    0.49311x Black Adam: at T-4     [3.75m]
    1.50485x Shazam 2 at T-4         [5.12m]
    0.20857x AtSV  at T-4                [3.62m]
    0.42350x The Flash at T-4         [4.11m]

     

    Size Adjusted: 4.7M

    Geomean: 4.25M

     

    Down from:

    On 12/15/2023 at 3:07 AM, Porthos said:

    For what it's worth, Aquaman 2 is doing relatively well in Sacramento:

     

    Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-7]

    759/16797 (4.52% sold) [+52 tickets] 101 showtimes

     

    1.46525x TSS at T-7                   [6.79m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
    0.54331x Black Adam at T-7      [4.13m]
    1.51800x Shazam 2 at T-7          [5.16m]
    0.25058x AtSV at T-7                 [4.35m]
    0.43772x The Flash at T-7         [4.25m]


    Size adjusted: 5.3M 

    Geomean: 4.85M

     

    Suggests a likely finish of ~3.5M from Sacto as well imo (split the difference and about 4.5M now, down .6 in 3 updates with 5 to go (obviously change in comps isn’t linear with number of updates but often these perform surprisingly close to that)).

    • Like 3

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Is there a BB final somwhere? Last posted updates were:

     

     

    Even the most voracious walk-up films - like Fast X, Jurassic - top out at +67% on that final day, and that would still only get BB to 72.5K, not 80K. Given the reported preview was $3.3M would think it finished under 70K in reality (like 65K would be a $51 PSM)

     

    Do agree with the 70-75K expected finish for Aquaman 2 here, just that it will be slightly above BB, not below, so like $3.7-$3.8M or so

    I just saw 79k on a spreadsheet but double checking that was a projection rather than actual, good catch. 
     

    But looking at BB’s pace on T-1 I do agree with hst spreadsheet entry that it very ended up 70k+. Still more likely then not in my mind, on balance, that AQM will be a hair below at mtc1 final bell but by maybe like 2% instead of 10%. Narrowing from 3-4.5 from a few weeks ago to like 3.2-3.8

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

    Wonka T-8: 70.89% Awareness

    Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

    Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

    This is very funny. I wonder if you have some people answering like “yes I’m aware of the wonka movie” but they’re thinking of one of the other ones 😂

    • Haha 8
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