Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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Just now, Brainbug said:
Number 2 nominal would certainly be a result far surpassing expectations though as always I am a Debbie downer who can’t help wondering about admits.
Legs will be equally good in $$ and tix though
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I would be surprised if it dropped from opening true fss to be honest. Thinking 50+ finish though if it comes in under still great
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2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Basically matched the Smile Wed/Mon. What I expected, but very good.
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4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
Well, since you asked...
$6M.
Do I have a comp? Nope.
I mean, I was tempted to give a Sound of Freedom comp - aka, a movie that normally appeals to a very narrow base, which came out of nowhere right before open with large presales and decent reviews, and then grew over OW from spectacular WOM that extended past its narrow base and into the public at large.
But, that comp would have to be an increase from this weekend...and as you said, The Boy and The Heron is gonna overlap a lot:)...
But, you did ask for a comp, and since we don't have a foreign movie that broke through its tiny market to the GA at large, I got more creative.
FWIW I think a small increase on true fss is possible. Always hard to call such things with only the current amount of data available though
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4 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:
Mentioned that the first time people noted how strong presales are. Very sad that this artificial inflation garbage is now being used to boost movies.
What’s artificial about it? Actual customers have decided to pay the studio the cost of a ticket in order to purchase a ticket,
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Don’t worry bug, Godzilla 250x IM
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2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Is there even a good smaller comp? Which big blockbuster this year opened to sub-$25M (b/c that's where Aquaman is tracking)?
Also you're one of the most accurate trackers/predictors on this forum
Aquaman's weekend will be hurt by the calendar but I meant a movie with smaller pre-sales for th. BB and SZH2 are the natural choices though they'll require some care handling differences in length until we hit final week.
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4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:
(0.372x) of The Marvels $2.45M Previews
(0.458x) of Indy 5 $3.30M Previews
(0.169x) of GOTG 3 $2.96M Previews
(0.459x) of The Flash $4.45M Previews
Comps AVG: $3.29M
Well, Blue beetle comp will probably spit out $6.5M. Not sure if I'm going to add it
3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:Blue Beetle and Shazam are much better comps than Guardians for this movie. Its smaller and they are also DCEU movies !!!
Just to add to this, would be useful to have at least one comp that is smaller than it instead of bigger. I'd feel more comfortable whipping out the Ole size adjusted comp at that point
I would do a few days of first N vs first N instead of the straight T-N though
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10 hours ago, Flip said:
For the 4 day 50 million isn’t too far of a stretch, it could play out like 6-12-14-5-13, if previews somehow could get up to that number
Pitch Perfect 3 turned a 20M 3daybinto 26.5 4day, a good bar for AQM the way things stand imo
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7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:
I mean I never thought it was gonna be that good, I just thought that there was alot of audience interest in it, and it's still gonna finish above HOG. The 3m previews prove that audiences were into it, but I can understand now why it isn't getting great legs.
My main takeaway is that a Napoleon movie in the near future which actually is what audiences want might have a lot of potential.
My takeaway from the Hunger Games (relative) success is that we’re past due for a Gregor the Overlander adaptation 🔥
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1 hour ago, Eric Bonaparte said:
Wowie zowie, almost like having one movie studio commanding 30% of the market share was actually a terrible thing all along and bad for all parties.
Disney doing great was good for the industry — the part of situation that was bad was everyone else being weak!
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I mean, if people won’t watch bad movies in theaters anymore, and Hollywood can’t make enough good movies, same end result 😛
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13 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:
"underperformance"
Seems destined to be the largest of the final 9 DDEU movies!
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11 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
it's the first time ever than we have two animation movies of the Annual Top 3
Woah, this is a wild stat
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6 minutes ago, Mulder said:
Like to elaborate on this 8/10 of the years in the 2010s had a Disney film at #1, and in the two years where they weren't they were still in the Top 3 highest grossers. This kind of massive brand collapse of like...everything Disney, not just one sub-brand is going to take a bit to recover from.
Wild how with 10s of B on the line they simply could not manage to write decent scripts 🤣
Not even like, great, just… not awful
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10 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-30: 56.59% Awareness
T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 93% chance of 50M, 71% chance of 60M, 64% chance of 70M, 43% chance of 100M, 7% chance of 200M
Low Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M
Incredible gap between quorum metrics and sales for this one
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14 minutes ago, CJohn said:
Any new Wednesday numbers? I sure hope Napoleon rebounded a bit because that OD IM DHD mentioned is absolutely atrocious.
The reception seems exceptionally bad too so I dunno if I’d expect much from 3day/wed.
Kind of mind boggling that this nov will probably lose to all since 1997 unadjusted — the average ticket price is like 250% of what it was then
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Najor Theater Chain
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FWiW since I had someone on Reddit ask me several time to put my AQM2 thoughts in this thread, my read of this start (mostly going off Porthos Lannister jat keyser) is ~3-4.5 previews, 5-6 IM (this may seem very pessimistic but the Fri Dec 22 release is really bad for IM — you make it up on total/ow), 4-5 legs unless reception overperforms. Midpoint say 3.5->20 -> 85, could get very close with Marvels
Absolutely dead genre which is awkward since it’s been propping the industry up for some half dozen years. A lot will hinge on whether Gunnverse and the at this point inevitable hard course correction of saga 2 can return to solid nums or not.
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21 minutes ago, Legion Again said:
another win for the buzz thread 😎😎🔥
Not a joke, folks — real meltdown energy is first days of PS, by the time ow rolls around megaflops are old news
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We’re in our JP3/PT era.
Problem is, can’t really take a 10 yr break and wait for nostalgia cycle to kick, so… more like JL era
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1 minute ago, Hatebox said:
52 pages. I guess the frenzy predicted by the hyper-cynical thread title never materialised.
another win for the buzz thread 😎😎🔥
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6 hours ago, Hatebox said:
But that’s my point - if those jobs are that dependent on MCU sustaining itself then the industry is already in a bleak place. In a healthy industry there’d be a ton of other projects they could easily work on outside of that, because in a healthy industry the mid-market wouldn’t have been gutted out.
Depending in part on something that could fail and depending in part on something that is failing are just very qualitatively different situations, I’m not sure what more to say 🤷♂️
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7 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:
It might take time, but the market always self corrects
Well, now we’ll get to see — but I don’t see much in the past 20 years of declining moviegoing to suggest that this is/will necessarily be the case
Weekdays Thread | #THU - Godzilla -1.0 $1.28M, TBOSS $1.148M, Beyonce $1.145M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
That’s my expectation