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About Marathon

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    Indie Sensation

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  1. Marathon

    Perkele! Finland Box Office

    A very late update again. Last weekend was a bit deflated, especially Sunday, due to the parliamentary elections and the women's national ice hockey team playing in the World Championships final. After opened with a meh instead of a bang. 8 817 admissions over an FSS frame. Too tired and lazy to find any suitable comps, especially when this start means year-end irrelevance even at the local box office level (unless it goes absolutely nuclear next weekend, lmao). Hellboy didn't so much bomb as crater through the earth. It posted 475 admissions over an FSS frame. It was playing in 36 theaters, meaning slightly over 13 people per theater saw the movie over the whole weekend. Meaning, approx. 4.4 people per day per theater. So, I, theoretically, could have been a personal chauffeur for all these people as my Citroën fits 5 persons. Holdovers: Pet Sematary held surprisingly well - I thought it would be a frontloaded affair - dropping 41.6% in its second weekend. 31 094 admissions so far. Dumbo held OK again with a 45.7% drop. Nothing spectacular in the legs department so far, but ambling around solidly (wrong animal reference, yes I know, haha). 63 820 admissions so far. Shazam! could have done with a better drop, but it has to contend with a 50.3% drop from its opening weekend. Definitely a disappointing 2nd weekend drop, especially when the opening wasn't that sizable. 21 998 admissions so far. Maybe the vaunted Endgame Boost(tm) has now begun for Captain Marvel in earnest as it dropped the softest amount so far, 30.3%. 137 414 admissions in the bag now. Due to this drop, CM didn't lose as much ground to BP as it had previously, but still, the gap narrowed again, and is now only 9 302 admissions. Goes to show how impressive BP's run was here, as it started from a much lower base than CM. Us dropped 39.6% from last weekend. 35 683 admissions so far.
  2. Marathon

    Perkele! Finland Box Office

    An extremely late update on last weekend's box office action, and I'm exhausted after a busy week so this will be short 😛, but nevertheless: Pet Sematary opened over a normal FSS frame and posted 15 664 admissions. An ok-ish start for this reboot, but it's not going to rip up trees as far as box office is concerned. A finish over 50k admissions should still happen. Shazam! likewise opened over a normal FSS frame but didn't do that well. With 11 748 admissions it's one of the lowest superhero openers in recent years. Wonder Woman is not necessarily a good comp for a variety of reasons, but its opening (over an FSS frame) was in a pretty similar ballpark, with 13 729 admissions back in summer 2017. WW had a leggy run, though, and finished with a 5.44x multiplier. That would take Shazam! to 63 909 admissions. I honestly don't know where it will land, but unless word of mouth is toxic it should still get over 50k admissions. Holdovers: Dumbo enjoyed a solid drop from its opening weekend, 43.5%. It has 50 360 admissions so far in its trunk. Captain Marvel had its worst weekend-to-weekend drop so far with 43.5%. No sign of Endgame boost just yet. And once again Black Panther gained on CM in their respective runs. CM's total admissions are now 132 260, and BP is only 12.6k short of it. Us suffered a harsh 58.4% drop from last weekend, but the biggest explanation is probably the opening of Pet Sematary. Us should drop softer this weekend. Total admissions 32 367 so far. Milestones: Bohemian Rhapsody continued its ridiculous run and crossed 450k admissions, with 450 047 to be exact. The multiplier from the opening weekend is now 8.51x, which is pretty nuts considering the OW was big in its own right. A Star Is Born is also still going strong. It is looking to go over 190k admissions soon, even if 200k might be a bridge too far (perhaps?). The total admissions so far are 186 370. The multiplier from the OW is now 12.74x. A 13x multi should happen.
  3. Marathon


    The only way EG would decrease from IW is if it's insanely frontloaded. At least for my market IW was already about as frontloaded as can be, so I find it hard to believe the legs would be even shorter. Of course, never say never, but it would be a shock if EG decreased anywhere from IW in local currency.
  4. Where the, ahem, hell is Hellboy? At this rate it's going to need a hell lot of walk-ups.
  5. Marathon

    Perkele! Finland Box Office

    Yes, apparently it's a new 24h presale record, last held by The Last Jedi.
  6. Marathon


    First approx. 2 days of presales in Finland (largest theater chain only): Wednesday (OD): 11166/14556 = 76.7% of available seats sold Thursday: 4339/12116 = 35.8% of available seats sold Friday: 4803/12116 = 39.6% of available seats sold Saturday: 4463/14737 = 30.3% of available seats sold Sunday: 2105/14737 = 14.3% of available seats sold ____________________________________________________ Some observations/notices: - The opening day capacity was increased after last time of check. - 26 876 opening weekend admissions already secured. Hopefully will cross 30k by the start of next week.
  7. Yeah, Shazam would have done better with a more forgiving release date, but thankfully the budget is not too high.
  8. Marathon


    First approx. 12 hours of presales in Finland (largest theater chain only): Wednesday (OD): 9832/13520 = 72.7% of available seats sold Thursday: 3584/12116 = 29.6% of available seats sold Friday: 3918/12116 = 32.3% of available seats sold Saturday: 3593/14737 = 24.4% of available seats sold Sunday: 1546/14737 = 10.5% of available seats sold ____________________________________________________ Some observations/notices: - Unfortunately I don't have Infinity War's presale data because I didn't track it back in 2018. - There's only one IMAX theater in Finland, so those tickets are going like hot cakes: the opening day IMAX screenings are all sold out and the rest of the opening weekend's IMAX screenings will also most likely sell out. - The presales are so far massively concentrated on the opening day. They even added a 10:30 AM screening slot in Helsinki for the craziest cats out there, lmao! Hopefully the OD ticket uptake will proceed at a brisk pace so that the other days will start to get some "spillover" love as well. - That's 22 473 admissions already in the bag as far as opening weekend is concerned. Infinity War opened (over a similar 5-day frame) with 95 542 admissions back in 2018.
  9. If the exchange rates were at circa 2013 levels, I would be pretty confidently in. However, with the current exchange rates this is basically touch and go. The presales need to continue at bugnuts crazy levels, and even the mature OS markets (especially mainland Europe) have to vastly overperform relative to previous superhero films on OW. But I'm juuuust about IN, because it would definitely be fun to have a $1b global opener.
  10. Marathon


    The situation with exchange rates is very frustrating. And the bigger your movie is (in terms of OS gross), the more punishment the weak exchange rates hand over. Oh well...
  11. Marathon

    Perkele! Finland Box Office

    Dumbo opened very solidly. With 26 942 admissions (and no previews!) over an FSS frame, Dumbo has every chance to get over 100k admissions at the end of its run. A good comp is hard to find, though. A spring release, live-action remake, CGI animal(s) in prominent role? 😂 Let's go with The Jungle Book (2016), even though that was more of an adventure movie. TJB had a 5-day opening back in mid-April 2016 and posted 27 029 admissions, so Dumbo almost matched that despite a shorter opening. TJB finished its run with 94 162 admissions, a 3.484x multiplier from the 5-day opening. The multi from the FSS portion was 4.426x, a solid if not spectacular multi especially for a family-skewing film. So using roughly the same multi should get Dumbo to over/under 120k admissions. Again, a solid if not spectacular end result. Of course, things can still swing either which way, but using 120k as a goal at this point seems reasonable. The holdovers: Captain Marvel dropped in a very similar ballpark as the previous weekends, 38.8%. Overall admissions so far 124 499. Once again Black Panther narrowed the gap in their respective runs, the difference now only slightly under 17k admissions. Interesting to see how small the gap gets before, assumedly, CM will match BP's end total admissions. Us dropped 37.9% from its opening weekend. Overall admissions 26 105 so far.
  12. It would be exciting to be in, but unfortunately the woeful exchange rates mean Frozen 2 faces a daunting (too daunting for me) task to reach $1b overseas. Out.
  13. Marathon

    Perkele! Finland Box Office

    Finally something to report... 😛 Us opened over a normal FSS frame and posted 12 430 admissions. It's a very big improvement percentage-wise (94.5%) over Get Out which opened (with a similar FSS frame) back in May 2017 with 6 391 admissions. Get Out finished its run with 27 257 admissions, a 4.265x multiplier. A similar multi would give Us a final total of 53 014 admissions, which sounds about right (if not sky-high, but then again, this is a very domestic-skewing movie box office-wise), so let's go with that projection. Although how much Pet Sematary could hurt it early April remains to be seen. Holdover business: Captain Marvel dropped pretty solidly again, 41.2% from last weekend. It has accumulated 110 612 admissions so far. However, I don't want to put too lofty, or at least any loftier targets for CM to reach (I got a bit ahead of myself after last weekend) because its best comp, Black Panther, had very strong legs, so even matching BP's final total would be great. After its 3rd weekend BP had accumulated 91 858 admissions, less than a 19k difference despite CM having a 5-day opening, and actually BP posted a better 3rd weekend haul than CM now did (14 272 vs 13 082). Unless CM starts dropping softer, BP is going to close the total admissions gap in their respective runs quite soon, certainly sooner than I thought. But, perhaps the proximity of Endgame will give CM a late-legs boost. We'll see. Milestones: A Star Is Born is still going strong. It's almost at 180k admissions now, with 179 264 to be exact. However, the most impressive thing about ASIB? Legs. It has racked up a ridiculous 12.25x(!!) multi from its opening weekend already. Even 13x multi might still be possible... 🙊 Bohemian Rhapsody is very close to 450k(!) admissions now, with 441 787 to be exact. BR's multi is also pretty outrageous considering its huge OW: 8.36x!

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