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    Indie Sensation

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  1. Yeah, $100m OS seems like a good prediction.
  2. CA trailers lacked conviction... offering mostly generic spy action with a bit of soapboxing on top. Not exactly a riveting combo. Unless you were a stan of the lead actors, the trailers offered very little urgency to hit the cinema.
  3. I had forgotten Ford v Ferrari opens this weekend in most places, whoops. That might make $15m a pipe dream, but anything between $13-15m will be obviously great.
  4. How much can we hope for this coming weekend? Is $15m possible?
  5. In my market Joker has now spent six weeks as #1. Will surpass Endgame this week to become the most watched movie of 2019 and the most watched CBM of all time.
  6. The USD was very weak until the latter half of 2014 (when it started strengthening) due to a variety of factors, including extremely low interest rates and money printing by the Fed. Since then the Fed hasn't been as aggressive about keeping a lid on the currency (others increased their easing measures as well though).
  7. Very impressive hold in my market as well: only a 4.4% drop despite a big opening (55 672 admissions). In fact, if you compare the "pure" weekends - no previews included - it actually increased by 6.2%! All bets are off for this movie.
  8. Underwhelming. The final four markets need to some extra heavy lifting... China on 18 October, then Japan, Poland, and Taiwan on 25 October.
  9. Should have known something was up / the holds were going to be (no pun intended) absolutely batcrap insane when I went to see the movie on Tuesday in my small town cinema. Weekdays are usually pin-drop quiet, with basically a handful of people at most attending, but this time the line stretched outside, and only the very first neck-breaker row of seats was vacant.
  10. @Tag 2 The Lion King did 72 728 admissions over a 5-day frame. I'm too busy right now to start scouring for comps, but it should be able to match Beauty and the Beast live action remake's total admissions (259 558) at the end of its run. Over 300k could be a bit tougher, unless the word of mouth is really great. Matching the original animated Lion King's first run admissions (462 058) here seems extremely unlikely. More info in this article (via Google Translate): https://translate.google.fi/translate?sl=fi&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elokuvauutiset.fi%2Fsite%2Fuutiset2%2F8979-leijonakuningas-sai-viidessae-paeivaessae-yli-70-000-katsojaa
  11. IM3 was inflated by very favorable exchange rates, a luxury FFH doesn't have. $805m overseas for IM3, a crazy amount of money for a solo superhero movie. Will be tough to match that...
  12. Finally some good news! Spider-Man: Far From Home opened over a 5-day frame and posted 53 644 admissions. That's a huge leap over the last Spidey (Homecoming) which opened (over a similar 5-day frame) with 29 196 admissions back in 2017. A +83.7% improvement!! Homecoming finished its run with 88 557 admissions, a 3.03x multiplier from its opening. Since the word of mouth should be (much) better for FFH, it should be able to at least match that multi despite a bigger opening. Holdovers: The Secret Life of Pets 2 dropped 55.1% from the 5-day, but only 10% from the FSS! That's fantastically well. It has already crossed 100k admissions (107 418), so the pet owners, restless kids, and desperate parents haven't yet given up on this franchise. 😜 Annabelle Comes Home dropped 67.3% from the 5-day, but 41.5% from the FSS. Not overly frontloaded so far. 37 670 admissions in the bag. Yesterday dropped 38.6% from its opening weekend. Hard to say how this bodes for the rest of the run, but at least it's not falling off the face of the earth. Still, the subsequent holds would need to be pretty insane for this movie to have any relevance whatsoever at the year-end box office. Milestone: Aladdin crossed 150k admissions (158 418), and is not showing any signs of slowing down - in fact, in weekend-to-weekend admissions it had a slight increase, +1.1%! - so even 200k admissions are still very much on the table! Fantastic run.
  13. I'm expecting a strong OW from my market. I live in a small town and 5-day openings are usually pretty frontloaded here, but I went to see the movie today and it was well packed. Chatter amongst the patrons also confirmed very positive word of mouth.
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