Belle

Well for starters I2 made around 9M more on its first Monday then JW2. 14.5% is insane itself when many other films drop after making that much on their first Monday.

That 15M in previews means its 2-3M above initial estimates iirc and just a little below its predecessor. I still don't know why some were so sure in saying it would have a sub 100M opening weekend, But we'll see I guess. This movie will likely have a lot more walk-ups though.

I guess I was quick to judge. But we'll see.

Those numbers were very outlandish. It would need a multiplier greater then 3.5x. And only one film that opened past 150M has ever gotten that. Force Awakens but that's only because of the way Holidays work. Even Black Panther with all the love and cultural zeitgeist it has going for it and 5 weeks of no competition and an Infinity War boost didn't receive a 3.5x multi nor Dark Knight despite all the praise it got.

Tickets these days cost so much more these days, iirc they said last year ticket sales were down but in terms of money it was as much or bigger iirc, You have 3D, imax, Imax 3D, special seats, whatever other gimmick there is. And the overseas markets have grown so much in recent years. The numbers will always get bigger and these box office records have as much weight as any other record. 2B also isn't the new billion yet because unless you're Avatar you still need a big performance both domestically and overseas. That said, as already mentioned in an age of internet, expensive tickets and franchises, this trend of big numbers makes sense as large groups of people are probably only gonna go see one or two big movies per year and then pirate or not give two craps about everything else. Nostalgia helps too. Many movie that have made near or past 500M domestic since 2015 have been based on IPs that many people want to see due to nostalgia and cross-generational appeal (Jurassic World, Finding Dory, Rogue One, Beauty and the Beast, Force Awakens, and Incredibles 2 once it gets past that mark).

I agree. In the 2000s I know we had Batman/Spiderman but Harry Potter, Twilight, Shrek, Pirates were doing pretty well. If superhero movies in theory were to be a fad like vampires around the time of Twilight, we'll just move on to the next genre. Yes Superheroes movies are successful but there are thousands of movies released every year and many smaller-mid size successes every year. Last year the top 5 movies worldwide weren't superhero movies for example. Anyways, I wouldn't be surprised if I2 drops over 50% this weekend. Not because of Jurassic World 2, but because these numbers are HUGE. A 24M Monday (if it follows say Jurassic World's projections it should make around 83M from weekdays) and 183M ow for 7 day total of around 265M? That's a lot to burn through in one week.

This run is the movie I'm looking forward to the most this year. An animated, Family-Rated movie opening this high but also had an A+ Cinemascore and very good reviews? I think it has a shot of finishing at around 600M but I'll be cautious of betting it to go higher then that.

So Incredibles is likely getting 600M domestic right? It needs a 3.28x and given the reviews and word of mouth plus summer weekdays chances seem very high.

If they nail the special effects for the underwater scenes the Little Mermaid could do bonkers worldwide. Though Avatar 2 I believe is rumored to be doing underwater scenes (?) Idk don't quote me on that. Not so sure about Mulan though. Appears that many of the elements of the original are being shifted around and the lead actress well I've seen some of her films and eh. But hey I could be wrong.

Holy shit. Now I'm now much more confident that Lion King will likely beat 200M+ opening but I'm still iffy on if it can beat say Force Awakens opening weekend record. That said, I'm ready for this run. A family animated flick opening this high? We haven't had that since last years Beauty and the Beast remake but that didn't summer weekdays or as strong a reception.

Looks like studios are expecting a 42 percent drop on Monday for IW. But since its still early I assume it will have a Monday drop off closer to 25%.

We'll likely get one eventually. Its hard because you're trying to change being the character vs watching them from afar. Because of that many video games mechanics and story structure just doesn't work in a standard 2 hour Hollywood movie. EDIT: I think many video games can work better as live action tv series or cartoons. And even if we do get one to break that barrier, I doubt the vast majority of video game adaptations can be all 3: Faithful to the source material, Function properly in a movie format and Check all the boxes on what many would say every "great" movie has. I say that because there's a reason why 40+ adaptations (per BoM) have been very bad to mediocre at best. Its not a coincidence. And as for mentions of Last Of Us, just saying we had The Girl With All the Gifts, Cargo, Logan, The Road, Book Of Eli, Children Of Men, etc.

Just saw Solo. It's okay. I wish after Rogue One Disney stopped with this spin off every other year stuff. Star Wars isn't built for that.

So a drop close to 60% for IW? Next week I can see it playing like Guardians 2 with 40% decrease over the Memorial Weekend and then a 50%ish drop Post-Memorial weekend. I know I said Deadpool 2 could get past 150M ow but I don't know why I sad that. Looking back It seemed very obvious that was a stretch but eh.

So Deadpool 2 has a big shot unless its very front loaded to get a 150M+ opening.