[New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!]

8 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

If Disney lowballs the weekend estimate to like 61m (basicaly flat SUN from SAT at this poiny) it would be peak clown behavior

But it's a good strategy, because afterwards Deadline, Variety & other outlets can have our favorite headlines:

 

ATWOW HAS ONCE AGAIN EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS 

[New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Also, maybe he meant $44 M for Saturday overseas and not Friday? Friday was $51 M.

Yes, he meant $44M SAT OS and $18M SAT DOM

[New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!]

1 hour ago, GOATPeterJackson said:

Realistically what are the chances of $2.2 billion+ WW for Avatar at this point?

I have been notoriously conservative with forecasts, but I believe $2B+ is more likely than not atp (+50%).

 

I still cannot see $2.2B WW for now, because I believe it will see some steep drops in many markets after this weekend. So, maybe 5%.

[New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!]

Love it how we are all calling it Orange Panther now

[South Korea Box Office]

Hello  any updates on SAT?

[Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!]

13 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

$20,117,061

 

ATWOW Thursday actuals.

Huge $97.1M Mon-Thur.

[Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

That's why i'm not even entering here anymore before more concrete numbers hahah 

 

This whole week, early numbers have a very wide range with a really low end, everyone keeps arguing about it just for the actual number came in the higher end or better 

 

Super early Friday estimate: $14.5M - $27M.

[Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

19.75
5.7

Great numbers!

[Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it]

Before its release, I had predicted $600M DOM, $400M China, $1B OS-China, for a total of $2B WW.

Even though I've overestimated China and underestimated OS-China, I think that ATWOW's WW total will be almost or around that mark.

 

Percentage-wise, I'd say the movie is:

- 95% likely to surpass The Lion King

- 90% likely to surpass Jurassic World

- 50% likely to surpass Spider-Man: No Way Home

- 30% likely to surpass Avengers: Infinity War

- 25% likely to surpass Star Wars: The Force Awakens

- <5% likely to surpass Titanic

 

[Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!]

3 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

Since my estimate of 16-24m nailed it for yesterday, let's go with 13-21m today.  I feel pretty comfortable that it might land somewhere in that range.  Maybe. 

I also feel like 12.8 - 21.25 for THUR, let's see how that goes

[Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!]

$20.58M actual for WED.

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

42 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Day	Date	Daily	% +/- YD / LW*		To Date	Daily in $	To Date in $	Day #
Fri	16 Dec 2022	¥162,296,000			¥162,296,000	$23,284,900	$23,284,900	1
Sat	17 Dec 2022	¥141,793,000	-12.63%		¥304,089,000	$20,343,300	$43,628,200	2
Sun	18 Dec 2022	¥94,020,000	-33.69%		¥398,109,000	$13,489,200	$57,117,400	3
Mon	19 Dec 2022	¥37,381,000	-60.24%		¥435,490,000	$5,363,100	$62,480,500	4
Tue	20 Dec 2022	¥31,181,000	-16.59%		¥466,671,000	$4,473,600	$66,954,100	5
Wed	21 Dec 2022	¥28,506,000	-8.58%		¥495,177,000	$4,089,800	$71,043,900	6
Thu	22 Dec 2022	¥26,734,000	-6.22%		¥521,911,000	$3,835,600	$74,879,500	7
Fri	23 Dec 2022	¥35,374,000	32.32%	-78.20%	¥557,285,000	$5,075,200	$79,954,700	8
Sat	24 Dec 2022	¥74,271,000	109.96%	-47.62%	¥631,556,000	$10,655,800	$90,610,500	9
Sun	25 Dec 2022	¥71,593,000	-3.61%	-23.85%	¥703,149,000	$10,271,600	$100,882,100	10
Mon	26 Dec 2022	¥27,853,000	-61.10%	-25.49%	¥731,002,000	$3,996,100	$104,878,200	11
Tue	27 Dec 2022	¥25,844,000	-7.21%	-17.12%	¥756,846,000	$3,707,900	$108,586,100	12
Wed	28 Dec 2022	¥25,006,000	-3.24%	-12.28%	¥781,852,000	$3,587,700	$112,173,800	13
Thu	29 Dec 2022	¥26,000,000	3.98%	-2.75%	¥807,852,000	$3,730,300	$115,904,100	14

 

¥286M 2nd week. Weekdays held well. Expecting ¥200M (+10%) 3rd weekend. Expect it to reach ¥1.35-1.4B ($190-200M) till CNY, if CNY releases don't move, run will mostly end, if they move and cinemas remain open, it will get a whole new life and can go on to post even bigger number.

Do you know why the numbers are different on http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/?

For exemple, as per this site, ATWOW has made $3.71M and has reached $115.97M as of yesterday, December 28th.

 

Nevermind, just realised that their ER is wrong.

[Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!]

So this will become THE FIRST $2B FLOP?!

 

OUTSTANDING!

[Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Japan is still a big question mark, very strange.

Whaling perhaps?

[Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!]

2 hours ago, Alexdube said:

  Hide contents

"putting my chips down and making this prediction: whether or not Rogue One is above A2 on Monday, it will never be above it again"

 

[Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days]

15 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

 

Monday up $770K

4-Day weekend only up $110K.

 

Are the official, actual numbers for FRI, SAT and SUN given somewhere? 

[Romania Box Office]

Avatar: The Way of Water has reached $2.5M in Romania by Sunday the 25th.

This is a great result, considering that:

- School holidays mostly started on 26th December

- People here don't go to the movies AT ALL on Christmas Eve

Thus, the movie should make a lot of money this week and the next.

[Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

@charlie Jatinder isn't this a gigantic overestimation?

[Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah with this amazing SAT, if SUN ended up matching or bigger than R1 (which seems extremelly reasonable), i think by next weekend it will be ahead of R1 already and should hold better in January

what amazing SAT? I can't find any confirmed numbers anywhere

[Romania Box Office]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Gonna use this thread for Balkan region.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Weekend

 

Romania - $1.36M (210K admits)

Greece - $702K (68K)

Bulgaria - $570K (73K)

Croatia - $328K (42K)

Slovenia - $273K (27K)

Serbia - $353K (51K)

Bosnia & Herzegovina - $78K (16K)

Albania - $36K (4K)

 

Total - $3.7M (491K)

 

There are probably $50-100k missing max.

 

I'd say it's quite debatable if Romania is part of the Balkan region (especially here in Transylvania, where I'm from), but I'll let that slide glad to see you around here.

[Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread]

1 minute ago, Bruce said:

Sat-sun only 25?

OS (at least Europe) is dead this weekend

[Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update]

Can't really understand why people are so sure about a $500M+ finish for A2.

It really did underperform up until now in the US.

O/U BP2 total DOM.

On the other hand, OS should bring in $900M, perhaps even more.

 

Gonna go with $1.3 - $.1.375B

[Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it]

7 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Second biggest opening weekend OF ALL TIME in Romania.

 

6.305.847 RON ($1.36M), probably over 200K admissions.

 

COMPS:

2.05 x Doctor Strange 2

1.94 x Spider-Man: No Way Home

1.5 x Avengers: Endgame

 

Just corrected this, it's actually the second biggest opening weekend of all time behind Fast and Furious 8.

[Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2nd biggest after Fast and Furious 8 - 7.443.186

True, my bad thanks!

[Romania Box Office]

On 12/11/2022 at 1:33 AM, Andreas said:

Biggest OPENING WEEKENDS of 2022, before the launch of Avatar: The Way of Water:

 

1. Teambuilding (Romanian Comedy): $973K
2. Doctor Strange 2: $663K
3. Thor 4: $478K
4. BP2: $456K
5. The Batman: $381K
6. JWD: $364K
7. TGM: $348K

8. Minions, The Rise of Gru: $331K
9. Black Adam: $330K
10. Mirciulică (Romanian Comedy): $320K

 

Important notes:

Avatar 1 is, by far, the highest grossing movie of all time in Romania.

Its 2022 re-release earned $131K on its OW (no. 1 that weekend, $131K is an above average opening weekend for a movie in Romania this year) and $320K overall.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water had the second biggest opening weekend OF ALL TIME ( behind Fast and Furious 8 ) in Romania.

 

6.305.847 RON ($1.36M), probably over 200K admissions.

 

COMPS:

2.05 x Doctor Strange 2

1.94 x Spider-Man: No Way Home

1.5 x Avengers: Endgame