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About VanillaSkies

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    Sleeper Hit

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    Ottawa, Canada

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  1. I saw it last night and quite enjoyed it. Between this and what is supposedly a strong performance in Honey Boy, Shia is back in a very big way this year!
  2. This will get painfully close to 400 million, but I don't think it will be close enough for Sony to push it there, unless they decide on a Labour Day expansion, as those generally add a little cash for the 2-3 week period after labour day as well...
  3. Except TS4 has opened in 90% of markets now, and we therefore have evidence that it is performing similarly to TS3 in almost all market (not many 4th movies in franchises can say that!), so it's hard to think it will deviate too much considering this. You could be right it will make no more than 12m, but I wouldn't bet on it given it's performance in all other markets compared to past films in the franchise.
  4. Oh yeah, 600m is a lock at this point, and more likely that it will make 650m. It's been holding very strongly in Japan despite competition, and it's OBON festival this week. That market alone still has 30-40 million left in it, which would bring it's currently overseas to about 590. It's still making money in other markets as well, and then ofcourse still has quiet a few more markets to open in. Comparing it to TS3, that film made 17m in Germany, almost 4m in Poland, 5m is Sweden, 5m+ in Finland/Norway... There is still a lot more money to come in both internationally as well as domestically. Such a great late run for this.
  5. Anywhere even close the 4 million preview number for Scary Stories would be incredible! Even if frontloaded, would blow past expectations for the weekend. Dora is doing about as expected. Should do decent walk-up business over the weekend and make it to the 20 million mark, but with Angry Birds coming out Tuesday (I was shocked when I saw this data on Mojo) it has very little room to breathe.
  6. Dora should have opened Wednesday, give it a full week breathing room before Angry Birds 2... Still not sure if it was a good idea to move to this date, lots of family competition. It still might have done better in July.
  7. I saw Hobbs and Shaw last night, and pretty much the entire movie was thinking, how on earth did they manage to spin off a hugely successful franchise and make a movie that is arguably better than any of the films in the franchise itself. The first 2/3 of the movie is more Mission Impossible than F&F, which I enjoyed because it's more rooted in reality. The third act is where the ridiculousness of the F&F movies comes in, but that said it was still a lot of fun. The surprise cameos got huge reactions from my crowd, and also sets up a nice team for any sequel. Regardless of what this makes domestically, overseas will guarantee a sequel, and I think with goodwill from this one a sequel could do quite well.
  8. Just an FYI to everybody, much of Canada has a holiday this Monday, so that should ever so slightly help Sunday drops....
  9. It does seem by their wording that they didn't adjust for West Coast numbers even after it gave the previews a big bump last night. They say in the article that there is room to grow is West Coast saves it again... why wouldn't they assume it will? In fact, it's even more likely on a Friday night when many people don't have to work tomorrow and can go to later shows.
  10. This is so frustrating. Some of these films could have co-existed with the other films in July. Why release so many in August?
  11. While not impossible, highly unlikely. Many drive in theatres close in September/October when colder weather comes, reducing the amount of available theatres in North America by a few hundred. This is why most records are achieved in the summer. With the largest of the mega blockbusters now released for the year, we may have to wait until next summer for this to happen. I still don't understand the logic of them adding additional theatres this weekend when the overall gross has declined so much.... oh well
  12. It's incredibly early of course, but Hobbs starts with 94% user rating on RT with over 200 verified user votes. Will go down of course, but not a bad place to start from at all. Hopefully some decent WOM will bring out the crowds this weekend.
  13. Correct me if I'm wrong, but how does it make sense to compare H&S Thursday tickets to OUATIH Thursday tickets when Hobbes starts at 7pm and Once started at 4pm. It has a full extra showtime on Thursday. Does that not skew things a little?
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