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About reddevil19

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  1. Mid-50's would be considerably better than I was expecting even a week ago.
  2. That's not a continuity error, it's simply edited out of order for the trailer, to have that final impact shot with the crossed arms.
  3. Sandler's most likely not even being nominated. Uncut Gems is a critics darling, but it's hit-and-miss with the guilds so seems there's little support in the industry. Phoenix, Driver, Banderas, Egerton, Bale, DeNiro, Pryce... All will get in before Sandler does looking at the race now.
  4. Perhaps. But being nominated for the ACE today puts better odds on editing as of right now. We shall see how it goes with the rest of the precursors. But I think it's fair to say it's been doing extremely well everywhere except critics circles, which again shows the big disconnect on this movie between critics and everyone else, including the industry.
  5. It's not as good as 95-year-old DeNiro almost breaking a hip trying to kick a man, but still... impressive stunt nonetheless. Hahaha. Both these two movies being nominated are more about their overall support (The Irishman and OUATIH hitting both ensembles - with the latter actually having good stunts as well - shows they're the two front-runners with actors and in the overall race, and Joker's is a consolation, as putting it in the main ensemble, potentially at the expense of Bombshell and Little Women would have caused further consternation). I really can't see how it misses a BP nod at this point. Expect the PGA will further cement that and, if by some chance Phillips makes it in at the DGA, it will be absolutely locked for a nod.
  6. I think the big takeaway from SAG was its stunt ensemble nod. Clearly shows strong support - nominating for main ensemble would have been too weird given it's essentially a one-man show, but it's hardly John Wick in terms of stunts. It's essentially a show of support, just like The Irishamn hitting both ensembles. Also was nominated for the ACE. Right now, think the top 6 for the Oscar BP are: The Irishman OUATIH Parasite JoJo Rabbit Joker Marriage Story Last 2 keep switching around in my mind. It is definitely showing VERY strong industry support, in contrast to critics' circles. It's hit all but one guild so far. I'm expecting Driver (and Sandler and Banderas) to clean up on the critics award circuit, but Phoenix will win the Golden Globe and Oscar. Also think Joker is potentially looking at 8+ Oscar nods. Picture - 90% chance Actor - 100% Score - 95% Editing - 90% Make Up & Hair - 90% Sound Mixing - 90% Sound Editing- 90% Add Cinematography - 60% Then a 50-50 for Adapted Screenplay and Art Direction. A long shot for Director So, anything from like 5 to 11 nominations, lol.
  7. The trailer song made the difference, lol. And tbf, that's the most memorable aspect for me too. The song and the editing of the trailer to it was phenomenal.
  8. Yeah, sure, I'm not doubting that. It's other things in the trailer that make me think this will lean into camp, a lot of it to do with the action as well (using the tiara, for example). And, of course, the smirky villain risks coming across as a caricature of the era Wall Street "villain". On top of that, the fairly obvious Trump coding might lean into camp in order to not be categorised as overly political... As I said, campy and cheesy aren't necessarily bad, it will be down to execution. And to be honest, after we've had quite a few serious, dark comicbook movies, we may be reaching the point where going full circle back into camp - provided it's executed well enough to balance that self-aware camp with a few more serious character beats and emotional moments, most importantly maintaining the earnestness of the character as shown in the first movie - may be embraced.
  9. More so, yes. Don't necessarily think it will be a bad thing, but yeah, think it will be fairly campy.
  10. It will be down to marketing over the next 6 months. I honestly can't see any way it matches the original's legs, so in order to avoid a large decline, it has to show a large increase on OW (thinking a 40% jump is the realistic target - 140-ish OW with a 2.7x multi would get it close to 380M total, so a single digit % drop from the original, which would not be bad, all things considered). I don't see a big increase in Europe (will be curious what effect - if any - Euro 2020 will have, as it's such a different format than before, with it being played across 12 cities in 12 different countries across the continent), but China I think should jump quite a bit (wouldn't be surprised with a bump around 100%) and other Asian and Latin American markets might see a small, 10% jump. So, let's call it 550 OS, for 900-950 WW. I think that's a realistic target overall AT THIS STAGE, though of course we are still half a year away, so should the marketing not pick up steam and buzz fails to properly build, then we could be looking at lower openings than anticipated and still nowhere near the legs of the first.
  11. Doubtful - more likely in Jan, once the Oscar nominations are out, provided it gets Best Picture.
  12. Lol, what?! IF it makes it in, that will be the huge surprise, with so many people not thinking it has a real shot. Should it be left out, it would not widely be considered a snub. It would in no way "stain" the movie's performance. It's funny you talk about an active campaign against the movie, while participating in it. This is creating a narrative that Joker is some kind of Oscar bait movie that can't afford to miss the nominations lest its reputation be forever tarnished, all so that articles about how "Academy proves Joker is not up to par" can be written once the nominations aren't there is exactly the kind of crap we can expect... There is nothing about this movie's performance at the box office or awards circuit that is disappointing - it has simply obliterated all expectations, across the board so let's not move the goal posts now.
  13. Oh, delicious! That makes it that much more satisfying! Hope the same happens for the Oscars.
  14. Maybe good (though obviously that is always subjective) but probably not popular enough with this group. That's why I mentioned both options. Don't forget, the HFPA consists of 90 members. The fact that it has a lot of glamour around it obscures the fact that it is quite an insignificant award as far as recognition from inside the industry goes. Wanting certain stars/projects highlighted is what the HFPA does. Don't read too much into it.
  15. I agree he has no shot at Director come Oscars (especially since the backlash to lack of women directing nods has started in the media), but I think there's a chance at Screenplay. Think it 100% would have made it in at the Globes if they had Original/Adapted split. That will work in its favor, and there is precedent for a CBM there, with Logan. Reckon it's currently in top 5 there...
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