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About Ipickthiswhiterose

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  1. Fingers desperately crossed that this will go down two more days in a row too. If Im right the number admitted to ICU is quite a lot lower than 3 days ago when they last gave that statistic. Please to goodness may it be so.
  2. Yeah it's really alarming to see the positive test numbers rise up but with such an enormous backlog it is to be inevitable. As you say, the death toll will provide a more accurate piece of data for a good while. Though given the number hospitalised, that itself has inevitably got a certain number to inevitably go through before it will really start having any impact from isolation. But if they keep giving the new IC admissions numbers which seems only just to have started, this will give the most real-time accurate indication of how the isolation has worked out.
  3. The one (and tragically one thing only) to take from this is we know now given the discrepancy between the +4,480 confirmed new cases and the +241 intensive care cases that much more tests are being done in many areas, with much less waiting until hospitalised. From that I don't think we can take it that the huge number of reported new cases means the social isolation isn't working, so much as they're working through an enormous number of people who were already in hospitals and at home reporting symptoms. I hope. The death rates will stay the same or climb for another 5 days or so. If it doesn't start going down after a week is the time to hit a new level of concern.
  4. It's also incomplete information (number of new cases per day) without knowing what their rate of testing patterns are. Technically the rate of infection should be significantly slowing by now with the supposed average incubation period of 5 days, but we have no clue as there are not enough tests and not enough forums for us to know how many "invisible" patients there are showing mild symptoms. We also don't know how many - because we presumably it is a lot - cases by now are happening in medical environments. We also have little idea, for the most part, the extent to which much of the population is adhering to the isolation. We obviously know that this is the case to some extent in the major cities, but huge areas of course can't be policed and as mentioned above the Italians are not known for their adherence to government instructions. We can go off death rates to an extent, but we know the death rates will increase from the number of patients who have it - so those increases "shouldn't" be alarming.
  5. Something can be statistically zero without being actually zero. Chance of death by sharks, lightning or dog attack are statistically zero, but they happen. This has already been said...because the Spanish Flu became known by that name. This virus has a name. Already. Thus, changing the name after the fact specifically just to label where it came from - and where it is no longer most prevalent - is clearly a deliberate piece of manipulation. And It isn't necessarily that it's racist, it's that it's cowardly hand washing and blame shifting. And it's so utterly transparent.
  6. This isn't clear from the article, or any other I have read on the matter. EDIT: Elsewhere the same professor who is leading this does appear to be genuinely saying the trail indicates that 10 people never show symptoms for every one that shows symptoms.
  7. One thing to hold on to here: While this is very serious we WILL get exponentially better at treating this every day. The knowledge banks about this virus will be doubling nearly as fast as the virus will.
  8. Vo near Venice has trialled a system of testing EVERY resident and totally cut new infections doing it. One key finding: Only one in 11 positive for Corona show any symptoms. Sample/town size of 3,300. Source: Sky news
  9. There are so many people with symptoms, and indeed those without, who aren't being tested that at this point mortality rates are almost completely impossible to discern. In some countries like the UK they are going to look huge, but that's because basically positive tests are now just coming from people in hospital. In addition to which, any dynamics such as tendencies towards immunity or passivity caused by former viruses/genetic dispositions/smoking and other living behaviours/medication are all virtual guesses, even unknowns - all of which have the possibility or raising or lowering mortality rates.
  10. We tested loads early on. That's what makes the whole nonsense so staggering. We weren't ahead of the curve, necessarily, but we were doing okay and were ahead of it relative to others and, outside of London at least, were quite precise in knowing where the risk areas and cases were. Then we screwed it. Those tests are indeed a lot overall, but they've only gone up a little in the last two days.
  11. Starting to look like UK is separating into London and everywhere else. Only a handful (allowing for the nonsense about only testing severe cases, but its still data) of new cases in North West and other regions in the last few days. Some areas are expanding quickly but London is at a hugely different level to anywhere else. Uk would be better with a border inside London probably than its actual coastline most likely.
  12. This is where it's going to be really difficult to interpret the data, maybe impossible. If Europe (especially UK) is going to be using the young as a meat shield to protect the elderly, and especially if the young are also going to act more recklessly on the basis that they are less likely to be affected by the virus, then the young going to be infected in larger numbers to the point that even with a low probability of needing intensive care, the ones that lose that probability game will still stark making up large numbers of people. And that's before taking into account the young people who may or may not be aware that they themselves have latent immune, heart or lung conditions. This of course will interact with and cause difficulty in ascertaining whether this is also down to an evolving virus that is more damaging to the young as well. The UK model of course is literally completely ignoring the possibility for the virus to evolve in a more aggressive manner, which we've seen that it already has once. For what it's worth, a number of on the ground reports seem to state that most under 60s are smokers. This data is also because when choosing who to place on to long term/indefinite ventilation, the pragmatic facts are that the under 50s will be prioritised. This will also be a reason critical condition numbers are the younger will likely be a means of keeping the average fatality age as high as possible.
  13. If, eventually, there will be something positive to take from this. It will be that it has exposed the enormous flaws in the reckless individualism that as a philosophy was starting to really gain traction in the western world and restore a sense of balance that we, or at least most of us, are all living in an increasingly connected society. The above is simply a symptom of a pathological obsession with deluded and irresponsible notions of "freedom" that refuses to even acknowledge the existence of other people. In other comments I can't even start to imagine the state Iran is in. One wouldn't wish what is almost certainly happening there on anyone.
  14. This will be news to Denmark, which is in Schengen but just announced border shutdown. I'm not saying the UK strategy isn't on the advice of medical scientists. But it's not a full consensus of medical scientists either. It's not a Tory-specific policy, I'm not doubting. Again, I think there is a chance they know - or at least think they know - a little more than they're letting on either regarding the number of cases in the UK or the extent of knowledge they've acquired about the virus (eg. Whether herd immunity even works for Covid-19). What I will say is that while I didn't check for the big names (toilet paper/soap), I have just come back from the local shop where there was seemingly a full stock of basically everything. And not many people.
  15. There is literally no other reason it could be. The UK has much more cases and a much higher rate than many countries that are included in the travel ban. That's what we have been reduced to in our leaders. NB: There IS a chance. Not a likelihood, but a chance, that given the UK's policy, the USA's policy regarding the UK and the various, there is a sincere belief that the UK government low key thinks they've located most of those who have the virus and has things relatively under control. It would be a very odd and not very credible belief, but it might be there.
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