Star Wars had a rough drop as expected. $500m will not be easy to get to, but I still think Disney can push it. Even if it does $1 billion WW, I know Disney expected a lot more especially for a finale.
Jumanji's chances at $300m aren't impossible. Of course, it will be tough to beat its predecessor but it still has already beaten the 1995 Jumanji in terms of ticket sales. It will still make tons of money for the studio.
Little Women (which barely has any nominations at the Golden Globes) held well enough to a point where it will reach $100m. OS is looking good for it, which means another financial success for the studio and Greta Grewig.
The 2020 Version of The Grudge will open even worse than Rings and it will be lucky to pass a 2x multiplier thanks to its F CinemaScore. Clearly, audiences still have a grudge against The Grudge.
Frozen II would need to hold very well to get to $500m. Too bad its drop was a little higher than all the other holdovers but its still done well for Disney and already made tons of money.
Spies in Disguise held well and may reach $70m. If it wasn't for its high $100m budget, it would be a modest hit for Fox/Disney. It needs a good overseas run to avoid a loss.
Knives Out had a Greatest Showman-type drop. If it were to hold like that throughout its whole run and it was the frontrunner for best picture, $200m would be on the table. However, TGS had its soundtrack going for it. Still, even if KO gets shut out by the GG and Oscars, its still on the way to $150-160m+ and will be the highest grosser for an original movie since Crazy Rich Asians. In fact, it will be the highest grosser for a movie to never reach #1 since TGS (just mentioned about that, haha).
Even with the 300 theaters added, Uncut Gems held better than expected considering its disappointing C+ CinemaScore. Even if it only gets a 3x multiplier from now on, passing $50m is locked at this point. If it gets enough Oscar buzz, $60m isn't impossible. Still, it's a lock to beat Lady Bird at this point.
Cats will miss $30m (won't even make it to $100m globally just like last year's First Man missed) and will lose more than 2,000 theaters next weekend. Bombshell will end up as a box office disappointment unless it can garner significant award buzz. However, at least it won't lose too much money compared to the former.