charlie Jatinder

Abigail MiniTC2 Previews - 1305/21076 (100 showings) $16.5K Good walkups after low sales. Normally these sales would imply ~$850K previews, MTC1 is much better than that. Maybe it hit $1M after all. Horror doesn't under-index here normally.

10.65 3.85

@keysersoze123 can you check Spider-man?

Huh. With MiniTC2 doing well I thought MTC1 wont overindex but seems like it did.

Civil War MiniTC2 Previews - 4438/30783 (114 showings) $60K Really solid result with walkups. Normally would mean $3M but think will underindex here. $3.25-3.5M seems about right.

I think all the shows are MTC 1. Only 20 shows non MTC1 in last check.

Spider-man MiniTC2 T-8 Days Monday - 2363/6965 (32 showings) $15.8K

AMC Empire 25 - 705 (5) Lincoln Square - 302 (1) Kips Bay - 163 (2) 34th Street - 152 (2) Newport - 105 (2) Americana - 482 (4) AMC The Grove - 287 (3) Universal AMC - 297 (5) Montebello - 323 (4) Burbank - 605 (3) Century 15 - 360 (4) Orange 30 - 495 (3) Disney Spring - 670 (3) Mission Valley - 202 (1) Chula Vista - 329 (5) 5477 - 15 locs - 47 shows @keysersoze123

GxK looked like 13M+ last I checked

Imagine $=10 peso. Then imagine 25M admits of EG, with market growth probably 27M. 80 peso ATP. 2.16B peso gross aka $216M

Not really. They are paying $10-20M for Indian films itself. $30M for American films will be on low end

Netflix would have spent that $30M for streaming only, now they got bonus $10M from theatrical along with marketing spend by Universal giving film awareness and now they can get good viewership when it streams.

Not sure but may be Netflix has kept streaming rights and sold just theatrical rights. In that case no losers there.

Challengers is my pick for April winner.

First Omen MiniTC2 Final Previews - 1063/10331 (61 showings) $13K Also low. Would normally mean $650-700K previews.

Monkey Man MiniTC Final Previews - 1393/14702 (70 showings) $16K Very low numbers and walkups were meh. Was thinking 2K was possible but fell way under. Would normally mean $800K ish previews but since MTC1 is much better, should be better than that. I will guess MTC2 is around $175-200K from MiniTC2 numbers, coupled with MTC1 that shall give $1.5M ish.

Wonder if it could be 40%.

Something we have to just go with. Though from my experience, its okay to just ignore EA before MON of release. Especially in this case where actual weekend of release is well short of EA. In MiniTC2 EA - 480/5191 (30 showings) Thu - 11/11332 (57 showings) Fri - 2/26366 (125 showings)

Would suggest ignore EA for comps. Too far out and too different from actual weekend sales.

Wonder how high MTC1 ratio be because sales are low elsewhere.

I get the forecasts are subject to change, just that I think the purpose of traditional tracking is to give a picture with polling before sales aren't there. Once sales are there, there are rare chances of surprise. That said I don't think Dune 2 had any kind of change in one month of pre-sales run. Always looked like $70M or so start.

That had oscar buzz which was huge so it did well but all other Dev Patel films are non openers in India or Indian diaspora in US.

Indian diaspora goes for face value, Dev Patel has none.

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Are these final prediction comparison day before release or so? I don't think tracking should be judged by that because by then pre-sales are already out. Will like to see how TQ, BOP and NRG compares say 6 weeks or 3 weeks out. Edit: Based on your previous post, 6 & 3 weeks out forecast for major films. https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/6WOFTR-03.01.24.pdf Dune 2 - $42-49M & $58-65M - ❌ KFP 4 - $46-53M & $46-53M - Acceptable Imaginary - $18-22M & $14-17M - ❌ Arthur - $13-16M & $13-16M - ❌ Ghostbusters - $50-57M & $50-57M - ❌ Godzilla - $46-53M - ❌ Only 1 title had an acceptable result I think. Not really a good track record IMO. In comparison BO Pro, using 3 weeks out. BO Pro rangers are unreasonably big so will be using their midpoints and +/- 5%. Dune 2 - $61-69M - somewhat acceptable KFP 4 - $33-37M - ❌ Imaginary - 16-19M - ❌ Arthur - $13-16M - ❌ Ghostbusters - 39-45M - ✅ Godzilla - $43-50M - ❌ One Win for BO Pro, One acceptable. Rest pretty much same for other 3 titles and 1 big miss compared to Quorum.