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TomeRide

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  1. One comp that I barely see coming up in conversations is Dunkirk. While they differ in rating and genre, both are new, original, acclaimed releases from the biggest auteurs in town, both have basically the same release date, and they both draw an old crowd. Two years ago Dunkirk opened to $50.5M on almost the same amount of theaters, off of $5.5M in Thursday previews (6PM start), and legged out to $188M. I think its certainly possible we can see numbers in that ballpark, considering Thursday is already looking to deliver. With Leo on board it might even get a similar 36/64 split (may I remind everyone that he dragged The Revenant to $349M overseas and The Wolf of Wall Street to $275M). Of course there are Django Unchained and Inglorious Basterds to look at, but Django was a Christmas release on a Tuesday, while Basterds is already 10 years old. Hollywood might target their inflation adjusted totals $145M-$184M, but for a day to day basis, I think Dunkirk is probably the best comp, especially if Hollywood overpreforms and goes above previous Tarantino works.
  2. The Amazing Spider-Man dropped 45% on its second weekend, off of the same Tuesday release. I don't that's asking too much from FFH, especially with better wom.
  3. How fucking lazy and safe. They just took the 6-day total of Homecoming. And a sequel should be more frontloaded than its predecessor, so that would point to a sub-$300M total, which isn't happening. That number should be at the very least $180M+ (which would lead to around the same total as Homecoming), or in my opinion just $200M+.
  4. Only a 32% drop from last Wednesday. Amasing hold. Pretty much guarantees a $25M+ 3rd weekend. I can see it playing out something like this: Thursday - $4.7M (-8%). Friday - $7.5M (+60%, muted hold with SLoP2 opening and inflated Summer weekdays). Saturday - $10.9M (+45%). Sunday - $8.2M (-23%). 3rd weekend - $26.6M (-38%). That would give it a $234.4M 17-day total, which would basically lock $300M+, imo, considering next weekend's weak competition and the two boosts its going to get for its late legs with Toy Story 4 and The Lion King.
  5. With Endgame passing $800M at the domestic box office, its just accured to me just how popular the MCU has become in NA over the last decade. While I won't try to make the argument its more popular than Star Wars (I mean, The Force Awakens did sell 10M+ more tickets than what Endgame will end with), its prevelancy in the top of the domestic chart is pretty damn similar to Star Wars in its prime. 4 out the current 8 highest grossing films of all time are from the MCU with Endgame (#2), Black Panther (#4), Infinity War (#5), and the original Avengers (#8). Comparatively, back in 1983, Star Wars (#2), Return of the Jedi (#4), and The Empire Strikes Back (#6) occupied 3 of the top 6 spots.
  6. July 2011 handled both Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II just 2 weeks apart from each other. That was 2011. July 2019 will be fine.
  7. Tbh, this number just makes me appreciate DH2's midnights all the more. $43.5M in half the time that Endgame had, and with 2011 ticket prices. What the actual fuck.
  8. Thursday = $60M Friday = $80M-$83M (using Jatinder very early estimates) Saturday = $90M-$95M (up around 12%-15% from true Friday; IW was up 22%, iirc) Sunday = $80M-$85M (expecting Sunday to be slightly higher than true Friday like IW; would be just a ~11% drop from Saturday with the help of massive spillovers) Total = $310M-$323M
  9. The trades still won't call the $1B+ WW opening even with $200M+ already from China alone, and $300M+ WW just from Wed + Thu. SMH 😂
  10. HOLY FUCKING SHIT GUYS. This movie was insane. That third act is as incredible as everyone says it is. Believe the hype!!! (repost from the International thread as I posted there incidentally out of excitement during the credits, lol)
  11. HOLY FUCKING SHIT GUYS. This movie was insane. That third act is as incredible as everyone says it is. Believe the hype!!!
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