TomeRide
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Everything posted by TomeRide
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Barbie - $96.75M Oppenheimer - $51.2M
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I ran a few numbers and I don't think we're realizing how big this 2nd weekend could be. These are the 1st Thursday-2nd Weekend multipliers for the major Memorial Day openers from the since 2014: A Quite Place 2 – 4.95x Aladdin – 6.69x Solo – 6.68x Pirates of the Caribbean 5 – 6.44x X-Men Apocalypse – 6.4x Tomorrowland - 7.86x X-Men DoFP- 6.54x The obvious exceptions seem to be A Quiet Place 2 and Tomorrowland, with the former more affected by Covid (as well as being a horror flick), and the latter by far the smallest of the bunch. That leaves a pretty consistent range of 6.4x-6.7x. Basing on a flat Thursday, i.e. $14.82M, that would translate to $94.8M-$99.3M. Even just a 5x multiplier on a $14M Thursday gets it to $70M, which might be the floor for the weekend.
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Israel box office thread: 2022 admission numbers
TomeRide replied to Tower's topic in International Box Office
Holy fuck. I knew it was really successful here but this is just insane. Really annoying we don't get box office numbers regularly here. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
TomeRide replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
One comp that I barely see coming up in conversations is Dunkirk. While they differ in rating and genre, both are new, original, acclaimed releases from the biggest auteurs in town, both have basically the same release date, and they both draw an old crowd. Two years ago Dunkirk opened to $50.5M on almost the same amount of theaters, off of $5.5M in Thursday previews (6PM start), and legged out to $188M. I think its certainly possible we can see numbers in that ballpark, considering Thursday is already looking to deliver. With Leo on board it might even get a similar 36/64 split (may I remind everyone that he dragged The Revenant to $349M overseas and The Wolf of Wall Street to $275M). Of course there are Django Unchained and Inglorious Basterds to look at, but Django was a Christmas release on a Tuesday, while Basterds is already 10 years old. Hollywood might target their inflation adjusted totals $145M-$184M, but for a day to day basis, I think Dunkirk is probably the best comp, especially if Hollywood overpreforms and goes above previous Tarantino works. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
TomeRide replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
How fucking lazy and safe. They just took the 6-day total of Homecoming. And a sequel should be more frontloaded than its predecessor, so that would point to a sub-$300M total, which isn't happening. That number should be at the very least $180M+ (which would lead to around the same total as Homecoming), or in my opinion just $200M+. -
Only a 32% drop from last Wednesday. Amasing hold. Pretty much guarantees a $25M+ 3rd weekend. I can see it playing out something like this: Thursday - $4.7M (-8%). Friday - $7.5M (+60%, muted hold with SLoP2 opening and inflated Summer weekdays). Saturday - $10.9M (+45%). Sunday - $8.2M (-23%). 3rd weekend - $26.6M (-38%). That would give it a $234.4M 17-day total, which would basically lock $300M+, imo, considering next weekend's weak competition and the two boosts its going to get for its late legs with Toy Story 4 and The Lion King.
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With Endgame passing $800M at the domestic box office, its just accured to me just how popular the MCU has become in NA over the last decade. While I won't try to make the argument its more popular than Star Wars (I mean, The Force Awakens did sell 10M+ more tickets than what Endgame will end with), its prevelancy in the top of the domestic chart is pretty damn similar to Star Wars in its prime. 4 out the current 8 highest grossing films of all time are from the MCU with Endgame (#2), Black Panther (#4), Infinity War (#5), and the original Avengers (#8). Comparatively, back in 1983, Star Wars (#2), Return of the Jedi (#4), and The Empire Strikes Back (#6) occupied 3 of the top 6 spots.
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Thursday = $60M Friday = $80M-$83M (using Jatinder very early estimates) Saturday = $90M-$95M (up around 12%-15% from true Friday; IW was up 22%, iirc) Sunday = $80M-$85M (expecting Sunday to be slightly higher than true Friday like IW; would be just a ~11% drop from Saturday with the help of massive spillovers) Total = $310M-$323M
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The trades still won't call the $1B+ WW opening even with $200M+ already from China alone, and $300M+ WW just from Wed + Thu. SMH 😂
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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide
TomeRide replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
HOLY FUCKING SHIT GUYS. This movie was insane. That third act is as incredible as everyone says it is. Believe the hype!!! -
AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide
TomeRide replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Holy Fuck -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
TomeRide replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Its said to be from yesterday's AMC investor presentation: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000155837019003050/ex-99d1.htm -
Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
TomeRide replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
Can anyone post the updated presales for each day? -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
TomeRide replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
The MCU has offically entered Star Wars' level of presales.