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Ed Raven

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Posts posted by Ed Raven

  1. 1 hour ago, Sheldon Cr said:

    Avatar 2 forecast: 45-50m all and get this Megan with 28-32m. Wow!. I hope actuals hit 50 for Avatar 2. Still 45million or better shows we are track for beating Tgm domestically and heading for 800+m!💪🦝

    Congrats to Megan I had a feeling it could hit 27-30m. Now officially the first big suprise  hit of 2023.

    Wonder if Megan can hit 90m-100m domestic? I don't feel it's a movie you watch more than once.

     

    So legs could be bad. Gave it a 5.8 out of 10 solid little horror scifi film.

    Cmon man, not even $700m is sure, how can you say it's heading for 800+m 

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  2. 2 hours ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

     

    You will when the studio reports actuals for the weekend.

     

    Aaand here is an update:

     

    Dec 25, 2022 1 $29,500,000 +97% -19%

     

    Updated 3-day weekend estimate for Avatar: The Way of Water is $64.0M (from 4,202 locations). Updated 4-day weekend estimate is $90.0M. Estimated total domestic gross through Monday stands at $287.68M. [source]

     

    • Like 2
  3. 13 minutes ago, Zamor said:

     

    Io mi vergognerei più di aver scritto sta cosa. 

    E' un mercato in linea con tutto il resto del mondo. Allora tutto il mondo ha gusti di merda. Ma qua parliamo con lo spettatore alpha.

     

    No, I should not be ashamed of what I wrote. At least I did it so everybody here could understand me, without hiding behind a foreign (to the board) language. Are you afraid of being banned?

    Respect my opinion. Italy has WORSE taste in movies then other similar countries, for me this is a fact. Or if you prefer we could say that Italians' taste in movies hasn't evolved. We expect and can only process/understand the same old sh*t. We like cheap thrills. 

  4. 14 hours ago, Nova said:

    Pokémon is a strong brand in Latin America and Asia too. That didn’t stop it from flopping there :ph34r: Thank god Italy has taste 

    :Gaga:

    Italy has SUCH bad taste (in movies) I'm ashamed of it. This film was pretty much garbage. The audience laughed when I just wanted to tear my eyes apart. Yet another awful movie we Italians decide to spend money on only cause it looks cute and/or the story is childish and brings back memories.

    And then we complain about Avatar's derivativeness...

    • ...wtf 1
  5. This movie is screaming for a final updated $500m OS total. It won't happen, I know... but it would put into perspective all the "series in trouble" talk ;) 

    Domestic b.o. was disappointing to say the least, but look at that OS figure... even with the problematic world of mouth of the unsatisfied fanbase, it still managed to gross (almost) half a billion. 

     

    COG's WW result underlines even more the unexpected success of FB's first installment.

  6. I started this comparison chart when the movie came out (click on image to enlarge):

     

    asdasdasdasdasdasd.jpg

     

     

    For the US and OS columns you have the weekend gross (green and blue) and in the line below the total and the weekend drop.

    For the WW column I put the combined total (pink) and in the line below the weekly gross and the weekly drop.

     

    As you can see, for the past three weekends FB2 OS drops have been better than FB's, a good sign after the mediocre 2nd-3rd-4th weeks, when the WW gap went from +33,8m to -111,6m. In the following weeks (5th to 7th) it "only" lost an additional 35m for a global 146m difference. 

    In the end, FB2 will have grossed at least 165m less than FB1.

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  7. On 12/10/2018 at 10:56 PM, Ed Raven said:

    After 4 weeks:   FB2  vs   FB1 (FB2 difference) 

     

    China - $57.1M  vs $83.8 (-26,7m) 4 weeks
    U.K. - $37.5M vs $53.3 (-15.8m) 4 wks
    Japan - $34.6M vs $36.3 (-1.7m) 3 wks
    Germany - $33.3M vs $27.2 (+6.1m) 4 wks
    France - $27.0M vs $22.0 (+5m) 4 wks
    Russia - $23.1M vs $22.2 (+0.9m) 4 wks
    S. Korea - $18.3M vs $32.4 (-14.1m) 4 wks
    Australia - $15.2M vs $19.9 (-4.7m) 4 wks
    Brazil - $15.0M vs $17.1 (-2.1m) 4 wks
    Italy - $14.3M vs $15.1 (-0,8m) 4 wks
    Mexico - $13.3M vs $14.0 (-0.7m) 4 wks
    Spain - $10.8M vs $12.3 (-1.5m) 4 wks

     

    Internationally, after four weeks of release FB2 is behind by 58m (425 OS for FB2 vs 483 for FB1). 

     

    Globally, FB2 is now 112m behind the first installment (570 WW for FB2 vs 682 WW for FB1).

     

    Germany and France, two happy islands playing their own sports. 

    For the next one they need to cast a Chinese superstar ASAP 😆

     

    Comparison at Week 5 (4 for Japan*):   FB2  vs  FB1 (FB2 difference) 

     

    China - $57.3M vs $84.5 (-27,2m) 5 weeks
    Japan - $40.6M vs $41.5 (-0.9m) 4 wks*
    U.K. - $38.9M vs $56.1 (-17.2m) 5 wks
    Germany - $35.9M vs $29.1 (+6.8m) 5 wks
    France - $30.2M vs $23.5 (+6.7m) 5 wks
    Russia - $23.3M vs $22.8 (+0.5m) 5 wks
    S. Korea - $18.4M vs $32.7 (-14.3m) 5 wks
    Australia - $16.0M vs $21.0 (-5.0m) 5 wks
    Brazil - $15.4M vs $18.3 (-2.9m) 5 wks
    Italy - $14.5M vs $15.3 (-0.8m) 5 wks
    Mexico - $13.4M vs $14.0 (-0.6m) 5 wks
    Spain - $11.6M vs $12.7 (-1.1m) 5 wks

     

    Internationally, after FIVE weeks of release FB2 is behind by 66m (444 OS for FB2 vs 510 for FB1).

    This past week the gap grew by a further 8m.

    Analysis: only two markets - China and the UK - count for the 67% ($44,4m) of that loss, a very significant percentage. If we count South Korea too, the loss share grows up to 89% (58,7m).

    Looking at how international numbers are settling (maybe with the help of a better exchange rate, especially in Europe), and not counting China and SK's unexpectedly low figures, the overall drops aren't too worrying. Germany and France softened UK's harsh - but expected? - drop, since the first one was an unexpected breakout over there (25th all-time in £ revenue, a staggering result). Will the next one suffer because of the non-European setting? Could be.

     

    Globally, FB2 is now 122m behind the first installment (596 WW for FB2 vs 718 WW for FB1).

    This past week the gap grew by a further 10m.

    Analysis: here, the undoubted black sheep is the US. A 27% drop (-56m) - a drop that will probably get worse at the end of the run - wasn't considered a possibility. Most people thought the film would gross between 190 and 250m. It looks like the film could even fail to reach $170m. What will WB do? Was Johnny Depp responsible for part of this disappointment? Was is that the fans were expecting something different, less grim and more Harry Potter-style?

    I think the main reason behind the overall decrease is the overdone intricacy of the plot and the left-aside humanity of the characters and their relation(ship)s.

     

    What are your thoughts? I trust JK and WB but I don't was this saga to keep falling until what could become a real box office flop (the fifth or even the fourth installment). The warnings are here. Drop David effing' Yates as a start and hire a real popular director. The man has directed 7 mega-blockbusters (8 with the next one, 9 if we count Tarzan). Give him a break. He needs to rest.

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  8. On 12/4/2018 at 2:59 PM, Ed Raven said:

     

    After 3 weeks:  FB2   vs    FB1 (FB2 difference) 

     

    China - $56.2M vs $82,4 (-26,2m) 3 weeks
    U.K. - $33.8M vs $48,2 (-14.4m) 3 wks
    Germany - $29.2M vs $23,6 (+5.6m) 3wks
    Japan - $25.4M vs $27,6 (-2.2m) 2 wks
    France - $24.4M vs $19,9 (+4.5m) 3 wks
    Russia - $22.0M vs $20,3 (+1.7m) 3 wks
    S. Korea - $18.0M vs $30,4 (-12.4m) 3 wks
    Australia - $13.9M vs $17,3 (-3.4m) 3 wks
    Italy - $13.5M vs $13,8 (-0,3m) 3 wks
    Brazil - $13.4M vs $14,5 (-1.1m) 3 wks
    Mexico - $12.5M vs $13 (-0.5m) 3 wks
    Spain - $9.4M vs $10,2 (-0.8m) 3 wks

    First of all, international and global totals went up from $423.3M and $568.5M to $425.1M and $570.5M, respectively. 

     

    After 4 weeks:   FB2  vs   FB1 (FB2 difference) 

     

    China - $57.1M  vs $83.8 (-26,7m) 4 weeks
    U.K. - $37.5M vs $53.3 (-15.8m) 4 wks
    Japan - $34.6M vs $36.3 (-1.7m) 3 wks
    Germany - $33.3M vs $27.2 (+6.1m) 4 wks
    France - $27.0M vs $22.0 (+5m) 4 wks
    Russia - $23.1M vs $22.2 (+0.9m) 4 wks
    S. Korea - $18.3M vs $32.4 (-14.1m) 4 wks
    Australia - $15.2M vs $19.9 (-4.7m) 4 wks
    Brazil - $15.0M vs $17.1 (-2.1m) 4 wks
    Italy - $14.3M vs $15.1 (-0,8m) 4 wks
    Mexico - $13.3M vs $14.0 (-0.7m) 4 wks
    Spain - $10.8M vs $12.3 (-1.5m) 4 wks

     

    Internationally, after four weeks of release FB2 is behind by 58m (425 OS for FB2 vs 483 for FB1). 

     

    Globally, FB2 is now 112m behind the first installment (570 WW for FB2 vs 682 WW for FB1).

     

    Germany and France, two happy islands playing their own sports. 

    For the next one they need to cast a Chinese superstar ASAP 😆

    • Like 2
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  9. On 11/26/2018 at 10:02 AM, Ed Raven said:

     

    China - $51.9M vs $72,5 (-20,6m) 2 weeks
    U.K. - $28.3M vs $37,6 (-9,3m) 2 wk
    Germany - $23.2M vs $17,9 (+5,3m) 2 wk
    France - $19.8M vs $15,7 (+4,1m) 2 wk
    Russia - $19.4M vs $17,2 (+2,2m) 2 wk
    South Korea - $16.6M vs $24,5 (-7,9m) 2 wk
    Japan - $13.0M vs $15,2 (-2,2m) 1 wk
    Italy - $11.9M vs $11,4 (+0,5m) 2 wk
    Australia - $11.5M vs $13,5 (-2m) 2 wk
    Brazil - $11.3M vs $11,2 (+0,1m) 2 wk
    Mexico - $11.2M vs $11,3 (-0,1m) 2 wk

     

    From these 11 markets alone FB2 is behind FB1 by $29,9m.

     

    According to the cumulative international total, however, after two weeks of release FB2 is leading by 5m (323 OS for FB2 vs 318 for FB1). 

     

    Globally, though, after the second weekend FB2 lost its 34m advantage and is now 35m behind the first installment (439 WW for FB2 vs 474 WW for FB1).

     

    -----          FB2    vs     FB1 (FB2 difference) 

     

    China - $56.2M vs $82,4 (-26,2m) 3 weeks
    U.K. - $33.8M vs $48,2 (-14.4m) 3 wks
    Germany - $29.2M vs $23,6 (+5.6m) 3wks
    Japan - $25.4M vs $27,6 (-2.2m) 2 wks
    France - $24.4M vs $19,9 (+4.5m) 3 wks
    Russia - $22.0M vs $20,3 (+1.7m) 3 wks
    S. Korea - $18.0M vs $30,4 (-12.4m) 3 wks
    Australia - $13.9M vs $17,3 (-3.4m) 3 wks
    Italy - $13.5M vs $13,8 (-0,3m) 3 wks
    Brazil - $13.4M vs $14,5 (-1.1m) 3 wks
    Mexico - $12.5M vs $13 (-0.5m) 3 wks
    Spain - $9.4M vs $10,2 (-0.8m) 3 wks

     

    From these 12 markets alone FB2 is behind FB1 by $49,5m. Dammit China and South Korea! :P

     

    Internationally, after three weeks of release FB2 is behind by 37m (387 OS for FB2 vs 424 for FB1). 

     

    Globally, FB2 is now 86m behind the first installment (521 WW for FB2 vs 607 WW for FB1).

     

    At this point FB2 won't even reach $650m WW. Honestly, very bad considering what the first one was able to do.

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