Aurora
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Posts posted by Aurora
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I don't know if this is suppose to go here, but I always wondered, if memory serves right, the 2D version of Avatar was pulled out of theatres early but the 3D version was allowed to stay. Did this have any notable impact on Avatar's final total? Could it have made more then 204M?
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So how much do you think should be a reasonably expectation from Japan for Aladdin when it comes out? Beauty made a little over 100M.
I'm also curious to see how well Lion King could do. I want to make a bullish prediction and say it could make 200M+ but I'm no expert on this haha!
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I LOVED it. Not perfect but very entertaining.
I thought it wouldn't do well but that's because I put too much stock into the "controversy/backlash" online from the casting, genie and other new plot points. All the people I know irl and on my personal social media accounts weren't aware/never heard or cared about said "controversy". many of them liked the movie. And it's Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes is 93%.
I think it can do 200-250M domestic. Maybe 300M is a little too high unless it has very good legs (and that's not out of the question). I wonder how it will preform in Japan...
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18 hours ago, WittyUsername said:
I mean, Nicole Kidman is only six years older than Patrick Wilson and yet...
Estelle Getty was one year younger then Bea Arthur and well if you've seen Golden Girls..
18 hours ago, AndyK said:weird since they are all supposed to be 2000 years old.
Yeah it's a fantasy movie where a woman in her early 30s can portray someone whose suppose to be thousands of years old.
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44 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
RIP titanic,
Titanic will be always remembered as a better film than EG, fight me..
If it's any consolation, Titanic made 600M domestic and 1.24B overseas in 1997/1998 (and before 2012 re-release, no premium formats to help bolster everything) and I believe it made more then double the previous record holder (Jurassic Park).
While records will be beaten and numbers will keep getting bigger, To me Titanic's numbers are way more impressive then the numbers that Avatar and Endgame made.
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I'll go middle ground. 42M Friday, if we compare it to the previous Avengers movies, a 45-60% increase on Saturday followed by a 20-25% drop on Sunday gives a total of 149M-163.5M second weekend. The Saturday jump could be much bigger though.
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4 hours ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:
I hope if Endgame passes TFA it either does it past the adjusted number on BOM or doesn’t pass it at all.
I can already hear the constant complaints that Endgame “didn’t really” beat TFA if it hits something like 940
I really don't understand the "adjusted" argument. In this day and age movies keep breaking IMAX, 3D, 4D, whatever premium format records and despite some reports claiming that "3D is dead", many big blockbuster movies can make around half (or more) of their opening weekend from 3D/IMAX/3D IMAX/whatever premium formats alone. So unless movie theatres or studio CEOs start telling us exactly how much tickets were sold, I normally ignore the adjusted argument.
Anyways, if it ends up with a 21.5-22M Thursday, I can see around a 100% increase today, then a 50% increase on Saturday and a drop of 20-25% on Sunday for around a 160M finish.
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33M. So That's a 10% decrease from Monday. For comparison on their first Wednesday, Avengers fell 23%, while Ultron and Infinity War were around 28%.
Just taking a random guess, I'm leaning towards the Wednesday drop being closer to the latter two movies then Avengers 1. But who knows.
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Given how big Let It Go was and how it seems like many girls/women of all ages I knew watched the movie, I'm kind of shocked Frozen made "just" 400M domestic.
It's been 6 years since the original and it seems to promise more adventure and possibly more catchy songs so I think it has big shot at making more domestically then the last one.
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4 hours ago, Walt Disney said:
I don’t think its target audience was the type to rush out and see a movie on OW. I think it caught on as a novelty and became an event, and that’s where the strong legs came from. You can see the difference in results between WW and JL. The hardcore superhero fans and DC fans were there for JL. The difference was the added audience because of the novelty factor.
I think WW84 will have a bigger OW, but worse legs. I could see it grossing $375-$380M domestically, which will make it a massive success. But, I don’t think it’ll surpass WW and I don’t think everyone who went for the novelty factor of the first will view it as “their franchise” and continue to see it in theaters. I think it’ll mostly be the crowd who likes superhero movies that will see this movie.
Wonder Woman had strong legs because many of its tickets were being bought by women, older people, families and a few other groups who view movies infrequently as word of mouth spread.
I think WW 1984 will have a much larger opening weekend because of the younger crowd and a roughly equal male/female split. its legs will depend on re-watches and if old people/other infrequent movie going groups who came out for her first movie will come around a second time and watch the sequel.
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If that 34.5M sticks, following the other three Avengers movies it's Wednesday drop could be around 23-28% and all 3 previous Avengers movies dropped around 8.5-9% from their first Wednesday-Thursday numbers.
Possible Wednesday: 24.8-26.5M
Possible Thursday: 22.3M-24.2M.
Off the top of my head, I think the only movie that had a Thursday number above 20M that didn't open on Wednesday was Force Awakens. It increased 80% from its first Thursday (27.4M) to get a 49.3M second (Christmas) Friday. And Avengers 1 and Infinity War increased 47-48% from their second Friday and dropped 21.5-28% on Sunday. So following that:
Possible Second Weekend:
Friday: 40M-43.6M
Saturday: 59.3M-64.5
Sunday: 42.7M-50.6M
Total: 142M - 158.7M (55-60% drop)
EDIT: 160M-200M+ is very much possible depending on the Friday/Saturday, assuming its Thursday is around 22-25M.
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On 4/10/2019 at 2:51 AM, UserHN said:
This can help EG in Japan. Conan is very popular.
Funnily enough, wasn't IW beaten by Conan last year?
Personally my three highly anticipated runs in terms of Hollywood movies in Japan are Frozen 2, Aladdin and Lion King. Beauty did like 12.4B there and we know how big Frozen was so it's gonna be interesting to see the likely drop off in Frozen 2 and if Aladdin/Lion King can match or exceed Beauty's gross there.
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Hi! I'm just wondering does any Japan box office expert think that Detective Pikachu will be a giant hit there? I know Japan aren't big fans of Western movie adaptations of their properties, and I can only speak for the Japanese friends I know but they all felt indifferent towards the trailer.
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So since the Friday estimates are pegged at about 61.4, Saturday so far is about 52-54. Other March openers typically dropped around 23-33% from Saturday-Sunday so my guess given all the estimates we have right now:
61.4M Friday,
I'll go the middle route and say 53M Saturday,
Sunday: 35.4-40.8.
So the total is around: 149.8M-155.2M.
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18 minutes ago, Nova said:
Maybe this is an unpopular opinion but I would rather have someone be like The Rock and promote the hell out of movie regardless of how it is doing financially or critically than a movie star who hides away/is ashamed when their movie is not doing well.
I'm glad he promotes his stuff but I wouldn't. I remembered the Rock's social media meltdown when some of his movies flopped or were trashed by the critics. I think it was Baywatch and Skyscraper?
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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:
So 200M OW is dead? 😞
Incredibles 2 managed 634M dom off 182.6M OW. Surely CM can managed over 500M with 160M+?
Almost zero chance it gets part 500M. Assuming it lands around 150-165, it would need legs around 3-3.33. Landing in the 400M range seems likely.
the hype for this movie is likely slightly inflated due to it's circumstance/novelty and unlike Black Panther it has no where near the universal love or praise. It likely not getting an A+ cinemasocre and it seems to be that many like the film but it is nothing "Mind blowing" or "groundbreaking". So I wouldn't bet on legs being super amazing because it's already opened much higher than the other MCU debuts (barring BP). So Maybe legs around 2.6-2.85x.
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9 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
Oh my God, why won't people get that women's day IS NOT A REAL HOLIDAY
I know that it's not a holiday. But there are women around the world who are skipping work and school to protest and go to rallys.. You don't think that there's gonna be zero impact today's sales? That maybe there might be a little more business than usual because some women might want to go watch the MCU's first female lead movie?
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"Just" 20.7? Beauty and The Beast's title is definitely safe. There will likely be frontloading because it's Women's Day today.
I'd say 145-165M seems like a good range.
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I'm betting on around 22-24M.
I wonder if Thursday/Friday might be a little inflated because of Women's day? I guess we'll see how word of mouth plays over the weekend. Seems pretty positive. This thing could make about 180M and take the title from Beauty.
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On 3/6/2019 at 11:24 AM, UserHN said:
That's for A Wrinkle in Time, a movie directed by a black female director, starring mainly female persons of color. So how is CM connected to Brie's comments about A Wrinkle in Time? Anyway, don't answer me. I don't want to further engage in political discussions.
On 3/6/2019 at 12:13 PM, Rebeccas said:I think we just have to accept that it's not because of poor wording or misunderstanding, for some people (white men mostly), inclusion of others means less for them, which is obviously inevitable and they probably know it but they hate that someone is actually saying it out loud.
I liked Brie's comments on inclusion and diversity is good and needed, especially in a diverse country like USA. But Brie's comments were related to America, For many countries, the American/Western concept of "race" does not exist in their society and the idea of being "white", or "black" or "brown" varies drastically on who you ask.
So I don't know why someone brought up Brie's comments in a thread about China of all things. The movie potentially being deemed "boring" or "not good" will be what will determine wom in Overseas markets and not Brie's comments at some American gala/awards ceremony.
That said, so it's at an 8.9 so far? it will probably drop a little bit to a mid-8 on Maoyan. I've read some reviews in other Asian and European markets and a general consensus seems to be that the movie is "decent" but nothing "out of this world" (pun intended) just like American reviews. So I'm curious to see the legs on this movie worldwide.
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The one review from a site called "Koreaherald", which is an English-language Seoul based newspaper basically states that Captain Marvel is decent and fun but some aspects like the action sequences were a mixed bag. That actually seems in line with what many critics are saying in America.
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I've seen two recurring complaints for this movie. The first being the "Everything we've seen so far look horrible or cheap" complaint. Which I kind of agree but the movie could be decent. We're still months away. Beauty And The Beast, in spite of many saying it was inferior to the 1991 version, people complaining about Emma Watson's singing and an overall circle jerk and video essays on why it didn't do "justice" to the 1991 movie, still made almost 1.3B worldwide.
And two, there are still people who want it to fail because they're still salty about the cast of Aladdin, especially the leads because of a "whitewashing" complaint. Though not perfect, they did cast Arab actors and Arabs can be as pale as a ghost to dark brown in skin tone and have many different hair and eye colors and all that. Plus by American standards, (and several other countries in the West) Arabs are seen as "white", and many either look "white" or no different than a "white person who has tans a lot/has olive skin tone". So I don't get it.
Regardless, I'm still gonna watch opening weekend and this movie will more than likely be at the very least decent. I doubt it will be beating Beauty and the Beast or be seen as some "masterpiece" but it doesn't need to, I think it has a good shot at 1B+.
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I loved the teaser. Got me SOOOO hyped. I wonder if that brown haired girl has "autumn" powers and maybe the villain.
I think this can make more domestically and worldwide over the last one. I think it has a realistic shot at 500M domestically and 1.4B worldwide. Many sequels dwindle domestically after but that's generally because they come out shortly after the first movie and fail to re-capture the audience. There's been a whole 6 year wait so pent up demand will be there and if it delivers something new like the trailer suggests I think it's possible.
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Argentina Box Office - Minions: first movie ever to do $35m+!!!
in International Box Office
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Does anyone know how much tickets Titanic sold in Argentina?
It made 23M according to Box Office Mojo and it's 3D re release made 2.8M so I'm curious to know how much tickets it made there, especially considering how cheap I assume ticket prices were 22 years ago.