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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer
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most disappointing performances for a sequel?
Menor the Destroyer replied to John Marston's topic in Classic Box Office Runs
Most disappointing performance for a sequel? How on earth could it even qualify?? -
Yes...this is indeed what Druig thought at the time. I don't get the confusion here. He later realized that it wouldn't work and so didn't bother going through with his plan of mind-controlling all of humanity. Also responding to stuff brought up earlier in the thread, I think it was quite obvious why Ikaris feels so strongly about following the Celestials. The entire movie his character is portrayed as the one who is obsessed with duty like when he apologizes to Ajak for having feelings for Sersi since it would distract him from his duty.
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Well, we'll see. If it's going as high as that then it will destroy everything but Endgame in PS. Will be way over TROS. Personally my target is 200 for now and would even be okay with like 150 OW (assuming decent-ish legs for 500 total). In actual predictions I'm IN the over Avengers club so probably 205 OW/650 total for now.
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Do we think that Mysterio will be back in this as well with the rest of the villains? We've seen people fake deaths many times in the MCU and he did have his own personal drones that could make some illusions. We know that his team had some sort of plan and presumably it was directed by him, and he doesn't seem like the type to care much about posthumous revenge. Personally I'd like to see more of the character especially since he was the one that instigated the whole movie (whether directly or through his team).
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I went through the tracking thread and used some of the regional tracking to get an idea of the amount sold on day 1, Endgame's first day should have been in the 300k range for MTC2 for previews. So at both MTCs it was about 3x TROS, MTC1 a bit more than that and MTC2 a bit less. Of course all these estimates have much bigger error bars than the data we have now but it shouldn't differ too much from there. Now the funny thing was that even 17 days out (when I took my first run), it had 350k+ tickets sold for Friday and Saturday and 200k+ tickets for Sunday! (adjusting for the 100 theaters we gained coverage for since then). God that movie was a beast. I wonder when we will ever see PS like that again.
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Ad hoc estimation I would guess maybe 1 million tickets at MTC1, maybe a bit lower? (I think it was publicly reported like $15 million gross) MTC2 all I have is 269k the week before release (on like 2/3 of the coverage we have now so that would be 400k, day 1 would probably be at least half of that but not sure exactly how much). Yeah. It was a monster.
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Maybe a bit under, thinking about it. For your club you probably want at least 35m previews. TROS was 40m, factoring in SW being a bit more presale heavy (though for a film like this, the difference would be less) would probably want at least 200k/110k between the MTC absolute minimum (i.e. 80%ish of TROS). Still, would rather see it higher to be more confident in crazy OW numbers.
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I mean we can say what we want but I think comparing this to any blockbuster post pandemic doesn't make sense (which is where a lot of you seem to be getting this ~400m stuff). I haven't seen this kind of rabid anticipation for a movie since Endgame. Maybe it's just a purely online phenomenon, maybe this movie actually has less anticipation than FFH. But I don't think so.
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Now that you mention it, pretty sure this character has been rumored for Guardians 3 (actually was it this thread where I read that? Not sure). Hmm...I think the other 4 you mention would be better introduced elsewhere, but we'll see. Especially Galactus, I honestly think his introduction would fit better with the Eternals at this point.