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Ah yes, TROS will be the first movie to have a presale multipler lower than 1.

Yeah I tried to account for those factors (also missing non-reserved theaters) by giving a more generous estimate. But while non-reserved theaters are easy to account for the ratio it's hard to factor in sellouts. So the estimated number could be off but in general I think the main point that it's running behind TLJ, but not by that much, is still true. Agreed that a Wang number will be very helpful.

I wouldn't worry too much for the OW if it comes in lower. Pre-holiday weekends don't lend themselves to high walkups so I don't think the internal multi will be that high. Once we get the opening 10 days we can really see where it'll land (just like with F2).

I guess it should be at ~$18 million for MTC1 roughly (well, depending on the sellouts too, but this is already definitely a higher number). That is 61% of Endgame at the same point. TLJ was at $22.8 million at T-8 and finished at $36 million. TROS shouldn't end up too far from that, though I think it will come in below unless final week comes in huge.

Eh, I think under 1 billion would definitely cause some serious reflection at LF. That would be less than half of TFA. I mean even Rogue One hit a billion.

He was definitely too extreme but SW skews a bit older than a lot of other mega blockbuster franchises. Not to the extent he was saying but for example Avengers tends to average about 50/50 split for O/U 25, while SW is in the 60-70% over 25 range for opening weekend.

Very unlikely looking at data we have. It appears to be doing a tad less than TLJ based on limited comps we have, that doesn't mean it's gonna bomb Solo style lmao.

Yeah, but this year sees the end of SW Saga, Avengers (for now), Disney has done its biggest remake, idk if future JW films will be able to improve from Fallen Kingdom. Avatar most likely isn't doing 200 million OW in December, it's not that type of film. That leaves Black Panther 2 as the next likely 200 million opener I guess? I don't know if opening inflation can counteract the decline in IP.

That's the case for all live action remakes. Lion King trailer 2 only got 9.8 million main channel in the first 24 hours, did 174 million total. Edit: I looked through YT reuploads and FB/IG/Twitter, you are right. Minus China, it's doing very mediocre. But in China it's doing gangbusters (even if shares are partially manufactured, that view count is pretty big and will only keep going up), so the overall number will be high.

I am comparing to EG trailers. Those 2 both had fewer likes than BW somehow. These numbers don't seem to have a regular ratio like Twitter does with likes/RTs. Edit: Shares to comments actually seems to be relatively consistent across the trailers I've looked at. It's just likes that are a bit wack.

https://m.weibo.cn/detail/4391570306161011#repost Mulan trailer 1 is at 366k shares (to 209k likes), didn't Gavin have that at 92k. I checked Endgame trailers and his numbers were correct for those. But this number makes a lot more sense as the trailer has almost 50 million views (compared to 8.5 million for trailer 2 so far, which somehow has way more shares).

Shares: Mulan-459182, BW-90311 Likes: Mulan-166275, BW-193199 Views: Not totally sure how to read this but it seems to be 8.48 million for Mulan?, and 11.37 million for BW Comments: Mulan-18697, BW-23176 I think something is definitely going on, but why would shares be manipulated and not likes? Seems a little odd. Edit: Likes discrepancy seems to be partially explained by the fact that BW has an unusually high amount of likes relative to shares for a big trailer.

Only thing is, I would be cautious saying this just based on the shares. In views, comments, and likes its behind the BW trailer so I'm not sure the increased shares completely translates to greater awareness. Definitely going to hit big but I wouldn't go crazy just yet.

I'm guessing there's some sort of patriotism aspect to it with people showing support for the movie as a proxy for opposition to HK protests? Bc otherwise it makes no sense for it to increase so much from the teaser.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like the new trailer already has 366k shares on Weibo which would absolutely destroy Endgame's record. Unless it's actually 36.6k and I'm reading it wrong.