TheUndertaker

I mean, it's at 314M domestic, so it can't really reach 700 OS before the billion WW. Even if domestic stopped, it would reach 1 billion at 686M OS 😜

This version of Charlie's Angels is basically just a modernization of the TV series, aiming for what younger audiences may enjoy now (for a specific demographic), unlike the 2000s movies which were half-parodies of the 70s mixed with over the top 2000s shlock action. In a way it looks more in line with the spirit of the original, but then there's the realization that perhaps the only thing that makes the TV series interesting today IS the retro stuff. But even if you make Charlie's Angels retro without it being a parody, the younger generation would just find it lame. Anyway, a lot of younger people apparently don't know the 2000s iteration is not the "original".

One of Joker's strenghts to be nominated for best picture is the fact that the Academy is mostly comprised of actors, and many have already voiced their admiration for Joaquin's performance. Having such a great performance definitely helps to get more votes from them.

I did the math and Terminator Genysis was over 300M by its 2nd weekend in every country (including China), so about 100M ahead of Dark Fate (which even has 3rd weekends in some countries already).

Joker is #8 at Gold Derby's experts odds and it's been going up the last few weeks. Of course it's not certain, but I think it'll happen. Specially after making so much money. They know they need a movie with a lot of popularity.

My second calculation was correct, maybe actuals will bring it up to 985M 🤡

Genysis wed-to-wed was -69.4%. DF's fri-to-fri was -73.4%.

That's why it dropped much worse than Genysis on the 2nd week (wed-to-wed, fri-to-fri, or weekend-to-weekend)

It depends on the definition. Forbes and other trades are using the Return On Investment metric of profitability. It is the most profitable in terms of revenue/cost, and it probably is the most profitable in terms of profit/cost. In terms of pure profit, if Deadline is more or less correct it will probably pass Infinity War's 500 million. Endgame's profit has been rumored to be around 700 million. So Joker will probably become the 2nd most profitable comic book movie.

Redid my calculations this time using the weekly drop for worldwide mon-tue numbers from Mojo (-31.4% DOM; -47.6% OS; -43.9% WW), and it shows 984.5M by sunday. It will be mid to high 980s.

We always get apprehensive around this time but it always does better than expected. Last week we thought it would drop around -40% but it dropped under -30%. Not to mention November 1 wasn't a public holiday in many big markets like UK, Mexico and Brazil (in Mexico and Brazil, November 2 was a public holiday, but that was on saturday) November 15 will be a holiday in Brazil, by the way.

Since this is the third time it's happening, I think I got the hang of it. Mojo update: through tuesday Screendaily update on friday: through wednesday Last week Hollywood Reporter reported through thursday and it was higher than Screendaily's report, which was higher than Mojo's update. 2.9m DOM/10.6m WW maintains the ~27% DOM share of last week. Going by that split, if it reaches 313m DOM on Sunday (13.8m since last sunday), it would make 51.1m globally since last sunday (around -40% drop), reaching 988m.

Not to mention it already passed FFH when you take the China grossing out.

I think they didn't want to release 2 DC movies one month after the other

Not at all. The optimistic forecast is over 990M. 980-990M is reasonable.

Just sort of trivia, but if Joker drops less than -40% this weekend, it will have a larger 6th weekend than Avengers Endgame

-33.8% from LW 😮

Very early on I imagined it would do something like 700M because of the IP. I figured that much of the success of Suicide Squad was due to Joker being in it (and even if most fans apparently dislike Leto's take on the character, he's still kinda popular among GA). But then closer to release I remembered that it wouldn't have a China release, and when it won the Golden Lion and the conversation around the film started to be so controversial and divisive, and the fact it was a heavy drama with no real action, I thought general audiences would maybe like it but it wouldn't break out. Even after the 250M OW, which was 100M above the industry expectations, I still expected it to make only 500-600M, expecting some mediocre drops. It was only when Charlie started getting hyped for a billion during the first week that I started to consider 700-800M again. Still didn't believe in more than that though.

Next sunday 980-990M In a way it's disappointing that there will still be no CBM in the 900s range 😛

350M with Oscar expansion if it happens next year, 1.1B WW maybe.

Even if it drops 50% every week now it will still reach 1B in less than 3 weeks.

It will probably near 930M if not pass it, and if Joker gets nominated for Best Picture and gets an expansion that performs similarly to Gravity, I risk saying that it may even beat TDKR. With those OS numbers through thursday, it probably crossed 900M on friday, not today, actually.

From Deadline It seems the industry itself is taking this element into consideration.

Maybe the post-Halloween soft friday is bringing Deadline's estimates down more than it will actually happen.

So, with a 1.88M thursday DOM, Joker made 7.75M DOM during the weekdays. With 22M overseas, that would be 29.75M WW. 7.75M DOM out of 29.75M is 26%. If that ratio holds over the weekend, with a 13M DOM, global grossing on the weekend would be 50M, making Joker reach 930M.