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About Justin4125

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  1. Haha I think you're just trying to start some shit because I dont think youre much of a Disney fan, but yea let's leave Disney out of this. Let's enjoy this run, this will probably usher in a whole new era of darker, R-rated CBMs. Its going to be really really hard for future such movies to top this one though, Joker + festival wins (and Oscar buzz) + pent up demand for darker R-rated CBM fare + controversies + novelty of it all = an incredibly potent combo, not one you can really plan for
  2. I mean, ER today is only about 1% off what Deadpool (2016) faced on OW, but yea ER in general is rough, 3% down since AEG and ER was super low at that point too
  3. If it only hits 91M it'll be as front-loaded as Endgame. I think it'll do better than that, my guess is 95M, but if the younger demos come out in force it could surprise to the upside on Saturday (under 25s rated the movie the most highly by a big margin, but they were in the minority compared to 25+, there's room for them to come out given how strong the WOM is in that demo and push the film higher Saturday). Still quite front-loaded from an internal multiplier perspective but that shouldn't be surprising. Internal multis should not be compared to R-rated dramas/thrillers, this is first and foremost a movie about the Joker. All things considered, just normal CBM frontloading
  4. For what its worth, I just completely shocked myself looking at seating charts for Joker in Switzerland (can be found on Cineman.ch). Joker doesnt release in the German part until the 9th, but most theaters across the canton Zurich are about 40% filled (there are seating charts for each theater). Switzerland may be one of the least presale heavy (most walk up heavy) countries in the world, in part because they never seem to get hyped about anything, let alone movies, but they are hyped about Joker. It truly is remarkable. Switz BO falls in line with Germany and France. I know this is very anecdotal, but I haven't seen such strong early sales since Endgame here in Switz (not that I expect Joker to do AEG numbers, but Joker is clearly going to be a box office force here)
  5. Past Golden Lion winners have made a killing in Spain. It was the 3rd highest grossing region for both Brokeback Mountain and The Shape of Water and the 4th highest grossing for The Wrestler. The Venice platform will give Joker a very nice boost in Europe, Spain and Italy in particular (though in the examples of past Golden Lion Winners, Spain outgrossed Italy in each case). Its not a big sample to be sure, but it helps highlight the importance of Venice as a platform
  6. Oh please. I mean technically yea, but at the end of the day this isnt just an R-rated character study. This is CBM featuring one of the most iconic CBM characters of all time. Between festival glory and controversies, its also one of the most talked about, attention grabbing movies of the year. Lets not pretend this is Taxi Driver, this is ultimately a highly marketable movie of which awareness and interest levels have been sky high since the film's announcement. Its aping the festival buzz and messaging that typically elevates even unknown movies to box office glory and combining it with the ravenous fan base and global awareness of one of cinema's greatest icons. To just compare this with true-to-form R-rated character studies does those movies a massive disservice
  7. Aquaman is without a doubt an exception. Bumblebee, Spiderverse (despite a more frontloaded release date before the holiday kickoff) and MPR all outlegged it, hell Jumanji even pulled a 10x the year before. So yes, that 4.9x multiplier means nothing comps wise, its the only Xmas CBM release of its kind. Shazam had normal legs (though its opening was so low I would say thats an exception on its own in the DC universe) and WW, well WW had fantastic legs no two ways around it. So sure, WW and Shazam had amazing to normal legs. I dont think you can discount every other DCEU movie though, it'll take a win or two more before we can forget about DC's previous multipliers. I think, though, it speaks more to the proportionately higher fan rush component to DC movies. Prior to WW, DC films (Nolan trilogy included) had notoriously poor OW internal multipliers. There's an article about it I can attach, about how Marvel had more backloaded OWs since they played to a broader audience (another way of putting it is a comparatively lower fan rush component). That has obviously started to change for Marvel EDIT: Also I wouldnt call Suicide Squad's 2.43X multiplier in August normal legs, its one of the most backloaded months. Then again, given the hype for the film and resulting fan rush (as well as poor reviews) I certainly wouldnt call them terrible legs either all things considered
  8. I know you're joking, but its conceivable they do a TDK style expansion in late Jan. That added low single digit millions (from 531M (earning sub 10k weekends prior) to mid 533M, not the 2012 re-release which pushed it to 535M). If Phoenix actually takes home best actor that might be worth a bit more who knows, but given the hype surrounding the film, I have a really hard time seeing this play out like other awards buzz films who were notoriously backloaded and released closer to awards season
  9. Feel compelled to reiterate that DC films, especially those including Batman/Joker, are some of the least walk-up heavy/most advance sale (Thursday) driven CBM movies (Nolan films as well, since BvS and Suicide Squad had reviews to weigh them down even more, TDK was much much more presale and Thursday-driven than its time-and-genre appropriate peers Spidey 3 and Ironman 1 & 2). In this case though its hard not to see a perfect storm brewing. Ridiculous first choice tracking metrics, awards buzz and controversy (which stirs tons of free media + adds curiosity + throws social media into a frenzy (all of which duh, only helps the movie, and the huge added bonus that divisiveness sells in today's world)) make me feel like 100m+ is an eventuality. If that isnt yet borne out in the tracking info, then in some way I guess I agree with you.... Though I still think in the end it will be more presale or Thursday heavy than most CBMs
  10. Not bad, not bad. I have doubts about this film's playability in China, but OS-China should be able to get to at least 120M - 140M. Factor in an alright China BO (they like Brad Pitt and space movies) I could see this film saving some face. Should be able to cut the bleeding and minimize loss. I think Fox did the right thing selling the China dist rights, would've been tough to be fully exposed to the 80M-100M budget
  11. At least 8x I agree, even though its a beloved character we've seen before, I have a hard time seeing it play out like a sequel multi-wise WB did contend that the shooting had an impact in general, but they gave multiple reasons why it didnt reach Dark Knight numbers (I would argue no argument was needed, following up one of the most defining films of our generation would be a tall order regardless). Even if the shooting had a big effect, at the end of the day it played out like a typical massive blockbuster sequel to a massive breakout. Other fan rush films had even lower multis. HP8 a year before opened 4x from midnights (43m to 169m)
  12. So? Demos are all that matter. The MCU has a distinct kid problem, but this also means that BOP should not be affected by the R-rating. Endgame's demos were indistinguishable from Deadpool's. I can't speak to their advertising, but in terms of who is showing up at the theater, its overwhelmingly driven by the over-25 crowd (71% of Endgame's OW audience). The Ant-man franchise was the MCU's attempt to break into the family market, but even that film was 58% over 25 and about 25% family (Deadpool 2 was only 62% over 25 OW). Even Ant Man is closer to Deadpool 2's OW demo than something like Incredibles 2 (66% under 25) or SLOP2 (50% of the audience was younger than 12). The point is that the R-rating will not restrict BOP, or at least not significantly. If we look at the Avengers franchise, you can maybe knock 10% off of BOP's opening due to the age restriction, but given Deadpool's demos, I would argue that isnt necessary If it makes you feel better you can chide the adults who drive the MCU's box office all you want, but at the end of the day the MCU has built its success on the over 17 crowd (over 25 even more so), so I see no reason why BOP should struggle to pull the same audience. As an aside, I think the overt targeting of the family audience by both Ant Man and Shazam (which had nearly identical OW demos) is a big reason for why they struggled compared to their respective franchise peers. In both cases DC and Marvel sought to plunder the younger demos, but both came up short. Instead they pushed away the older audiences who drive SH BO receipts DC clearly recognizes the demos of the CBM movie fanbase and is giving up on families. Marvel needs to keep their films four-quad, not because they rely on kids for the box office (since clearly they cant), but because kids and families help drive non-theatrical revenue streams (merch and parks)
  13. I agree, the R-rating will hardly impact it. Look at Endgame's OW demos, 71% adults (primarily over 25) and 80%+ over the age of 17. With the age restriction Endgame would have still made close to 300m OW, and that is not counting under 17s who could have gotten in accompanied by an adult. Most MCU films (outside of the Ant Man franchise) have OW demos similar to Deadpool. I think studios are starting to understand that the lower BO results accompanying R-ratings have less to do with the rating and more to do with the type of film. It also seems that R-rated SH films have their own draw, so I am not worried at all about BOP's box office prospects
  14. Whats the big deal with that? First Man was tracking at the same level and Universal put in 3640 theaters. I think its awesome that Disney is willing to push an adult oriented artsy sci-fi movie that they know is far from a surefire win. Besides, Disney isnt really used to batting at this lower level.... Im happy theyre respecting the legacy Fox assets
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