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About Justin4125

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    Indie Sensation

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  1. Interesting bit of trivia. If Afterlife gets 16.5 friday, it looks like a 39m weekend. Its initial long range tracking was 45m - 65m, so a 39m weekend would be ~14.5% below the low end of tracking. That is the exact same amount Eternals underperformed the low range of its initial, long-range tracking (82m - 102m). At least BOT is consistent Since Afterlife is skewing towards families, a higher than normal SAT jump could easily screw this up
  2. Not bad for Eternals. I wonder if Sat increases are normal (not sure how the holiday on Thursday impacts weekend business), but if it is, we're looking at around a 62% drop. Better than I expected given my perception of WOM. The sky-is-falling "Eternals failure" crowd can shout a little less loudly on BOT this weekend, though that might be asking a little too much ...
  3. Not suprising, the MCU is the most consistent franchise ever in terms of critic and audience reviews, this is one hell of an interesting outlier. Who knows, morbid curiousity may help balance out the loss of those who are deterred by the negative reviews haha I've seen some people mention the tepid response overseas. Eternals is rated significantly higher than other recent films with mixed reviews (like V2 and WW84) in places like France, Spain and Germany (based on Allocine, Filmaffinity and Filmstarts respectively), also much better than Captain Marvel or Birds of Prey. I would s
  4. I would also point out that the film's performance supports the strength of the IP. The pattern of its performance (very strong in mature markets and weaker in emerging) is highly consistent with other successful adaptations of book series. With a little more digging, I'm sure I can show that the trends in its BO performance largely follow the geographic dispersion of its book sales
  5. About being niche, when it comes to major book franchises that haven't been adapted in decades, Dune has to be one of the biggest properties out there. Sales of the Dune novel prior to the release of this movie are fairly comparable to those of other major franchises prior to their big, modern cinematic adaptations (like LOTR, which, like Dune, had an initial film adaptation around the same time). Maybe its bigger in Switzerland where I live than in the US, but lets not downplay the success of the books (and overall awareness of the property) prior to this film's release (just look at trailer
  6. Not giving GVK enough credit imo. Since GVK had a five day opening, that 3-day figure doesnt count previews (which it didnt have) plus wed+thur depressed the 3-day. GVK would have opened to 40m with a standard 3-day opening weekend, so personally I feel that's the number to beat (which Dune will do handily)
  7. They are in the same franchise, made by the same producer/studio, based on the same comic book series and they ultimately overlap into the same movie. To criticize the saminess of MCU films is to me, a pretty lazy critique (no disrespect to you) that chooses to ignore what makes them different. If seeing all the movies was required to enjoy them, I would agree with you, but it isnt. The fact that the standalones are self-contained means those interconnected bits are just bonuses for the fans. I'd also add that they're mainly great by comparison. We're not talking about auteur filmmaking here,
  8. Box office is NOT back to normal. Shang Chi's decent performance by pre-covid standards does not mean the box office is magically back to normal, and arguments about what people THINK the film would have made pre-covid in order to justify why the box office is back are, all due respect, unfounded (I'm looking at you Scott Mendelson). So are arguments that Shang Chi was hardly affected but most other films were. All movies are still being hit. Aside from box office numbers, infection rates and surveys on moviegoing, studios have far more data on audience behavior than we do, if we were fully ba
  9. Its so true. I just went back through Wan and Clint's filmographies. Wan gave WB the highest grossing DCEU movie and one of (if not the) most successful horror franchise of all time and there is an argument to be made that Clint is the adult-skewing BO king. Both directors have been (and still are) some of the most bankable and consistent directors in Hollywood, and the studio is totally bungling the release of their movies back to back. Regardless of the current circumstances, its a damn shame
  10. I'm with you. I didn't love the movie (but I do respect it), and it didnt deserve to be dropped so unceremoniously. Marketing is all too often used as another excuse for a film's poor performance, but in this case, I'm racking my brain trying to remember the last time a movie with this budget + directorial talent had so little fanfare and pre-release buzz. This will be an example to cite in future discussions about how a failed marketing effort and release strategy can bury what might otherwise have been a (at least moderately) successful movie
  11. We have absolutely no way of comparing a film to a counterfactual "normal" world. We do know, however, that domestic surveys suggest that far fewer than 85% of people feel comfortable going to the cinema and every film has significantly underperformed (at least in the last two months) expectations of "normal times" internationally. MCU films do crazy numbers because of their four quad appeal and we also know families and older people have been shunning cinemas in particularly high numbers (just look at theatrical exclusives targeting those markets) All that in mind, that Shang Chi only s
  12. The movie seems to have the best WOM of any major release this year (in terms of audience ratings, including the cinemascore, PostTrak exits, RT audience etc). Anecdotally, I don't think my friends have talked this much about a Marvel film since Endgame. WOM is excelllent, obviously fan loading will account for a steeper drop than what we would expect from a non IP driven film, but still, if WOM on this film "isnt enough" I simply don't know what kind of WOM would be Aside from fan loading, the Sunday was inflated due to the holiday. I know we don't know whether Labor Day inflated or defl
  13. Toy Story 4 was terrible? It wasn't my cup of tea, but it was clearly a quality film. I just checked it has ridiculously good reviews from both critics and audiences, you can't just write that off because of a personal bias (which is obvious given that you prefaced Toy Story and Lion King with "terrible" and "awful", but did not comment on the quality of movies like pets 2 and angry birds 2....) Also most of those movies, while not all big hits, were at least solid at the domestic BO. It would be a pretty big stretch to call any one of those a bomb. Yes, Pets 2 and HTTYD made less
  14. That ARPU will increase a bit if Disney doubles its monthly sub fee to on par with HBO, but yea HBO has a bigger presence in the US than D+. I think when HBO max expands globally it will challenge D+ in subscriber count. The trades are always talking D+ numbers, but HBO max has been a smash hit as well. I think maybe it was D+ kind of working from scratch whereas HBO max started with inbuilt HBO subscribers, but at this point that start isnt so relevant, I feel like Warner deserves as much respect for HBO max as Disney seems to get for D+
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