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Justin4125

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Everything posted by Justin4125

  1. Haha I think you're just trying to start some shit because I dont think youre much of a Disney fan, but yea let's leave Disney out of this. Let's enjoy this run, this will probably usher in a whole new era of darker, R-rated CBMs. Its going to be really really hard for future such movies to top this one though, Joker + festival wins (and Oscar buzz) + pent up demand for darker R-rated CBM fare + controversies + novelty of it all = an incredibly potent combo, not one you can really plan for
  2. I mean, ER today is only about 1% off what Deadpool (2016) faced on OW, but yea ER in general is rough, 3% down since AEG and ER was super low at that point too
  3. If it only hits 91M it'll be as front-loaded as Endgame. I think it'll do better than that, my guess is 95M, but if the younger demos come out in force it could surprise to the upside on Saturday (under 25s rated the movie the most highly by a big margin, but they were in the minority compared to 25+, there's room for them to come out given how strong the WOM is in that demo and push the film higher Saturday). Still quite front-loaded from an internal multiplier perspective but that shouldn't be surprising. Internal multis should not be compared to R-rated dramas/thrillers, this is first and foremost a movie about the Joker. All things considered, just normal CBM frontloading
  4. For what its worth, I just completely shocked myself looking at seating charts for Joker in Switzerland (can be found on Cineman.ch). Joker doesnt release in the German part until the 9th, but most theaters across the canton Zurich are about 40% filled (there are seating charts for each theater). Switzerland may be one of the least presale heavy (most walk up heavy) countries in the world, in part because they never seem to get hyped about anything, let alone movies, but they are hyped about Joker. It truly is remarkable. Switz BO falls in line with Germany and France. I know this is very anecdotal, but I haven't seen such strong early sales since Endgame here in Switz (not that I expect Joker to do AEG numbers, but Joker is clearly going to be a box office force here)
  5. Past Golden Lion winners have made a killing in Spain. It was the 3rd highest grossing region for both Brokeback Mountain and The Shape of Water and the 4th highest grossing for The Wrestler. The Venice platform will give Joker a very nice boost in Europe, Spain and Italy in particular (though in the examples of past Golden Lion Winners, Spain outgrossed Italy in each case). Its not a big sample to be sure, but it helps highlight the importance of Venice as a platform
  6. Oh please. I mean technically yea, but at the end of the day this isnt just an R-rated character study. This is CBM featuring one of the most iconic CBM characters of all time. Between festival glory and controversies, its also one of the most talked about, attention grabbing movies of the year. Lets not pretend this is Taxi Driver, this is ultimately a highly marketable movie of which awareness and interest levels have been sky high since the film's announcement. Its aping the festival buzz and messaging that typically elevates even unknown movies to box office glory and combining it with the ravenous fan base and global awareness of one of cinema's greatest icons. To just compare this with true-to-form R-rated character studies does those movies a massive disservice
  7. Aquaman is without a doubt an exception. Bumblebee, Spiderverse (despite a more frontloaded release date before the holiday kickoff) and MPR all outlegged it, hell Jumanji even pulled a 10x the year before. So yes, that 4.9x multiplier means nothing comps wise, its the only Xmas CBM release of its kind. Shazam had normal legs (though its opening was so low I would say thats an exception on its own in the DC universe) and WW, well WW had fantastic legs no two ways around it. So sure, WW and Shazam had amazing to normal legs. I dont think you can discount every other DCEU movie though, it'll take a win or two more before we can forget about DC's previous multipliers. I think, though, it speaks more to the proportionately higher fan rush component to DC movies. Prior to WW, DC films (Nolan trilogy included) had notoriously poor OW internal multipliers. There's an article about it I can attach, about how Marvel had more backloaded OWs since they played to a broader audience (another way of putting it is a comparatively lower fan rush component). That has obviously started to change for Marvel EDIT: Also I wouldnt call Suicide Squad's 2.43X multiplier in August normal legs, its one of the most backloaded months. Then again, given the hype for the film and resulting fan rush (as well as poor reviews) I certainly wouldnt call them terrible legs either all things considered
  8. I know you're joking, but its conceivable they do a TDK style expansion in late Jan. That added low single digit millions (from 531M (earning sub 10k weekends prior) to mid 533M, not the 2012 re-release which pushed it to 535M). If Phoenix actually takes home best actor that might be worth a bit more who knows, but given the hype surrounding the film, I have a really hard time seeing this play out like other awards buzz films who were notoriously backloaded and released closer to awards season
  9. Feel compelled to reiterate that DC films, especially those including Batman/Joker, are some of the least walk-up heavy/most advance sale (Thursday) driven CBM movies (Nolan films as well, since BvS and Suicide Squad had reviews to weigh them down even more, TDK was much much more presale and Thursday-driven than its time-and-genre appropriate peers Spidey 3 and Ironman 1 & 2). In this case though its hard not to see a perfect storm brewing. Ridiculous first choice tracking metrics, awards buzz and controversy (which stirs tons of free media + adds curiosity + throws social media into a frenzy (all of which duh, only helps the movie, and the huge added bonus that divisiveness sells in today's world)) make me feel like 100m+ is an eventuality. If that isnt yet borne out in the tracking info, then in some way I guess I agree with you.... Though I still think in the end it will be more presale or Thursday heavy than most CBMs
  10. Not bad, not bad. I have doubts about this film's playability in China, but OS-China should be able to get to at least 120M - 140M. Factor in an alright China BO (they like Brad Pitt and space movies) I could see this film saving some face. Should be able to cut the bleeding and minimize loss. I think Fox did the right thing selling the China dist rights, would've been tough to be fully exposed to the 80M-100M budget
  11. At least 8x I agree, even though its a beloved character we've seen before, I have a hard time seeing it play out like a sequel multi-wise WB did contend that the shooting had an impact in general, but they gave multiple reasons why it didnt reach Dark Knight numbers (I would argue no argument was needed, following up one of the most defining films of our generation would be a tall order regardless). Even if the shooting had a big effect, at the end of the day it played out like a typical massive blockbuster sequel to a massive breakout. Other fan rush films had even lower multis. HP8 a year before opened 4x from midnights (43m to 169m)
  12. So? Demos are all that matter. The MCU has a distinct kid problem, but this also means that BOP should not be affected by the R-rating. Endgame's demos were indistinguishable from Deadpool's. I can't speak to their advertising, but in terms of who is showing up at the theater, its overwhelmingly driven by the over-25 crowd (71% of Endgame's OW audience). The Ant-man franchise was the MCU's attempt to break into the family market, but even that film was 58% over 25 and about 25% family (Deadpool 2 was only 62% over 25 OW). Even Ant Man is closer to Deadpool 2's OW demo than something like Incredibles 2 (66% under 25) or SLOP2 (50% of the audience was younger than 12). The point is that the R-rating will not restrict BOP, or at least not significantly. If we look at the Avengers franchise, you can maybe knock 10% off of BOP's opening due to the age restriction, but given Deadpool's demos, I would argue that isnt necessary If it makes you feel better you can chide the adults who drive the MCU's box office all you want, but at the end of the day the MCU has built its success on the over 17 crowd (over 25 even more so), so I see no reason why BOP should struggle to pull the same audience. As an aside, I think the overt targeting of the family audience by both Ant Man and Shazam (which had nearly identical OW demos) is a big reason for why they struggled compared to their respective franchise peers. In both cases DC and Marvel sought to plunder the younger demos, but both came up short. Instead they pushed away the older audiences who drive SH BO receipts DC clearly recognizes the demos of the CBM movie fanbase and is giving up on families. Marvel needs to keep their films four-quad, not because they rely on kids for the box office (since clearly they cant), but because kids and families help drive non-theatrical revenue streams (merch and parks)
  13. I agree, the R-rating will hardly impact it. Look at Endgame's OW demos, 71% adults (primarily over 25) and 80%+ over the age of 17. With the age restriction Endgame would have still made close to 300m OW, and that is not counting under 17s who could have gotten in accompanied by an adult. Most MCU films (outside of the Ant Man franchise) have OW demos similar to Deadpool. I think studios are starting to understand that the lower BO results accompanying R-ratings have less to do with the rating and more to do with the type of film. It also seems that R-rated SH films have their own draw, so I am not worried at all about BOP's box office prospects
  14. Whats the big deal with that? First Man was tracking at the same level and Universal put in 3640 theaters. I think its awesome that Disney is willing to push an adult oriented artsy sci-fi movie that they know is far from a surefire win. Besides, Disney isnt really used to batting at this lower level.... Im happy theyre respecting the legacy Fox assets
  15. This whole rotten tomatoes bias is bullshit. Joker has what, two 3/5 reviews that are rotten? MCU movies have them too, IW has a 2.5/4 rotten (which is 3.125/5) and Black panther, in addition to 3/5 rottens, has a 7/10 score marked rotten! There are publications posting articles about Joker's unfair treatment, just megaphoning the thoughts of angry fans despite the baseless nature of the claims. Isnt the whole point of rotten tomatoes to give us something more than just a numerical score? Read a rotten 3/5 review and a fresh one, the difference is immediately clear. RT uses the same program to grade each score, Joker's rotten 3/5s are no different than those from the MCU, and I dont remember anyone rallying against RT when Black Panther got a 7/10 marked as rotten On the flip side I for one am proud that Joker is engendering polarizing responses, why not just own it instead of fight with rotten tomatoes to increase the film's score. Though I have not yet seen the film so I cannot say anything, I am reminded of this article https://blog.taste.io/why-great-art-is-inherently-polarizing-what-terrence-malick-and-michael-bay-have-in-common-69c36bf26a6e
  16. I personally doubt it. Critics had some problems with it but audiences largely ate it up. Also better critical reception may have boosted it a bit in the states (maybe closer to the 650m box office pro originally suggested) but at least in Europe reviews were great as was audience response (internationally the narrative was quite different and RT hardly plays a role). Counterfactuals are a bit foolhardy to begin with, but I would argue the film is playing pretty close to its full potential and that 2bn was probably never in store, if cinemascore and social scores across the world (barring China) are any indication, I dont think Disney left much money on the table with this one As an aside I would argue the film is largely the best version of itself. The technology and realism both enhanced the must see nature of the film (pulled in many curious about the the lifelike quality of the animals) and held back its heart. If they had opted for more expressionful and soulful depictions of the animals that would have detracted from the live action component and would have bordered on a 3D reimagining, it may have made fans happier, but it could have risked the justification for the film's existence. TLK was made to be animated, more than anything I think the film affirmed the value of more traditional animation and the limits of realism
  17. Brazil is a relatively mature market, it doesnt experience such crazy market growth. However, the cinema industry only "matured" (or at least hit a state of relatively steady progression) not more than 10 years ago, it makes sense therefore that all the top movies are recent. Also inflation has been unable to offset ER depreciation, so the market hasnt grown over the last 10 years in dollar terms (again, partly because Brazil is not China and is far a more established market). Its far from guaranteed that the top movies will be so easily supplanted, it depends on the upcoming slate and in the next 2 years I think its hardly a given that we'll see such turnover in the top 10
  18. Some great news thanks. With strong runs in France and Japan (at least as high as the first It, which may be unlikely) I think It2 wil smash 500m WW, that would be a big win (227.5 DOM (2.5 multi), 258.5 OS-France and Japan (2.5 multi, I think it will do slightly better internationally legs wise) and 40m+ from France, Japan and other territories still to open = 502.5m+
  19. I agree that blaming Disney is a bit hyperbolic and certainly unproductive, but I take serious issue with your use of the word "flop". It2 is a smashing success expectations be damned, and Shazam and Pika were both successes, albeit on a more modest scale (if you factor in that they were well-liked and that each launched a new franchise, Id even say they were quite successful). Also both movies played around EG, so while its not like EG (and by extension Disney) prevented them from being billion dollar hits, that movie certainly sucked a lot of oxygen out of the box office. KoTM is closest to my heart and I was the most active Ive ever been on this forum when it released. I dont recall a single person blaming Disney for its relative underperformance. Also to clarify again, while its hard to argue that KoTM was a success, it certainly wasnt a flop either
  20. My god you guys. There is nothing Disney is doing that other studios arent or cant. They are unbeatable when it comes to building massive, franchiseable IP, and there is nothing nefarious or underhanded about it. You dont have to like Disney, but to malign them at every opportunity or somehow suggest that they have inherent competitive advantages is baseless. Every studio wants and tries to release Disney-like tentpoles (though I really really like the direction some (mainly WB) are taking in carving out their own niches to dominate (horror, adult-oriented, etc). If you take Live Actions out of the equation (a bit of snake eating its own tail situation) Disney is where it is because of its emphasis on talent and story telling. At the end of the day (over the past almost 100 years) those two things are perhaps the most accountable for Disney's success. Disney cuts no corners budget or timeline when it comes to developing their films, and generally profit through years of old fashioned good will and consistency across sequels. It seems like everyone has a problem with Disney, and I hear more about Disney's malicious tactics than I do about any other studio, but its just too much. Clearly Disney's success hits people at an emotional level not an intellectual one Also, can we stop shaming audiences here. Its a lot harder to make a movie that everyone wants to see than some of you are making it seem. Every studio is doing everything it can to accomplish that goal, but audiences are fickle. Iger ushered in a new era of M&A, which when combined with Disney's movie making process, has turned Disney into the goliath we see today. Disney is the industry leader for a reason, and it got there without any advantages or villainous intent. Every studio "weaponizes nostalgia". You dont have to like Disney's movies to accept their current place in the pole position (itll change soon, it always does) but just keep in mind that we are in the midst of an unprecedented year. Without genuine competitive advantages, its only a matter of time before another studio beats Disney at their own game, so no need for Disney conspiracies btw lab276, in my limited experience exhibs love Disney because they more often than not respect the theatrical window and rarely ask for 6 week guarantees (as many other studios do, even for smaller releases). Every studio pressures exhibs on their tentpoles, Disney just has more of them. Ive heard some rumblings, but the word on the exhib street (at least between 2008- 2011) was very positive regarding Disney (in stark contrast to what I read on these kind of forums)
  21. It totally is though. Look at gross in USD relative to admissions. Exchange rates in Brazil have over-powered inflation. Go back as far as Titanic's gross 20+ years ago, ATP in dollar terms is close to that of 2019
  22. I don't think it has enough gas left. For some reason this seems to be a contrarian position, but to pass JW it needs $163m more and it just grossed $38m globally. With summer weekdays winding down, I would be surprised if it passes JW. Grosses in Japan and Italy (the two regions it needs to perform well in in order to pass JW) tend to collapse when summer ends. It can do it, but its not a lock
  23. It just had a $38m global weekend and you think it can do $190m more? Especially with summer coming to an end its hard for me to see that
  24. It seems its rank 4 all in Europe (if not its very close). The whole EG underperforming in Europe is overblown. Sure there are some territories where franchises stand out (like the Tolkien films in Germany), but EG is consistently high across each country in Europe. In relative terms its performances in the US, LatAm and Asia are more impressive, but it still kicked ass in Europe
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