Justin4125

Doesnt say anything. Italy has never really represented BO in Europe. Joker made almost twice as much as TLJ in Italy, but TLJ made much, much more in the majors (France, Germany and UK) Italy has always underwhelmed for tentpole flicks, its a very different market for movies

I mean that's not necessarily how it works. The series has been on a steady decline in China. TLJ made less than Rogue One (which was also a spin-off). SW just doesnt really vibe with Chinese tastes, we have always known that. In a way its a success just to reverse the downward trend These films just arent mega tentpoles in China, so the marketing doesnt quite work that way as it does in the US. The "finale" /"episode" bump will only work if the film really is an event, it just isnt an event in China

I don't get it? Spiderman FFH had a high RT score, wouldn't that make it very likely that most movies would have a lower RT score? Or is it the fact that its a Spiderman/MCU movie that gives rise to your personal incredulity. It doesnt matter what franchise a movie is a part of, they all have the capacity to be well-liked and well-reviewed Or maybe you just disliked Spiderman FFH? But if that's the case I hope you realize critics, as well as people in general, do not necessarily share the same opinions as you About TROS RT score, didnt we establish it doesnt matter a great deal? Clearly for this particular franchise critics and fans are divided, as long as the film performs well (80%+), I dont foresee reviews negatively impacting box office at all. I think JJ's talents are pretty well-suited for this franchise, I really don't think we need to worry about reviews. Also about those people complaining about critics' bias for SW films, regardless how you feel as a fan, these movies are incredibly well-made compared to most blockbuster fare. I don't think critics are particularly kind or biased, it seems very much more a case of fans being particularly harsh

Wow this is incredibly insulting. I'm not the franchise's biggest fan, but I had a fun time watching the movie. Its funny, the cast has chemistry, and the movie has heart. Sure its disposable in an academic sense, Jumanji certainly isn't providing us another lens through which to carefully examine the human condition, but the film almost undeniably has entertainment value. I don't think you can ascribe the film's success to an "average" audience, which by the way is perhaps one of the most condescending comments I've read in a long time, but rather to the strength of the cast and the film's sense of wish fulfillment and fun. Based on online reviews it doesn't seem that moviegoers walked out of Jum3 thinking it reinvented the movie wheel, rather they largely felt satisfied that the film had made good on its promise to deliver more of the heart, comedy and character shenanigans that made the first film such a breezy and entertaining watch. If you judge the film purely on all ages entertainment value, which is clearly the goal the makers set for themselves and what audiences are asking for from this particular franchise, then I think it was above average. If you're comparing it to brilliantly written dramatic films or ground breaking vfx films, then yea, in those categories the film is extremely average, but lets not move the goal posts here, that is entirely besides the point

Detective Pikachu's trailer had twice as many views prior to OW than the trailer for TROS, simple math TROS OW should be around 25M-30M. I feel bad for you guys going through all this pre-sale data.... Seriously though I completely agree, the insane variation in trailer views to OW ratios on boxofficereport should put the trailer view argument to bed. Trailer views might help indicate interest for movies in a very general way, especially for movies where we have poor comps and little data, but for movies like TROS they are more or less irrelevant

You're not asking me, but still slightly more conservative estimates owe primarily to 1) its earlier release date (so it'll leg it out following the second weekend drop as opposed to during its first and second week, as most school holidays are in Jan) 2) It being a sequel to a breakout hit (typically means lower legs) and 3) it coming before TROS, whereas the first one opened after TLJ (which will likely lead to higher OW/lower legs, whereas last one had a deflated OW/bigger legs) Still I think ~700m+ is feasible and is a massive success for this from the ashes franchise

Disney does not want TLK marketed/considered as animation at all. That was the whole gimmick. They wanted people to consider this as a live action film. The whole "is it animation debate" is coming from people outside of Disney. I would say while yes, it is animated, it doesnt belong in the animation category. If something is made to look life-like, its no longer an "animated" movie. I think "animation" describes a style, not just how the film is made (hell, many FX heavy movies are essentially animated anyways)

Ok, so if Jum3 only does an average 3x from these markets, that brings it to 323.5 OS (3x would be low considering the deflated OW to legs ratio of this release date and the backloaded nature of the film). Anyways, add in Brazil, Australia, Italy, HK, Colombia and the rest of markets yet to open, and that should bring it to a conservative ~400m OS. That gives us something of a floor of around 650m (with 250m dom) with the very real possibility of 800m given its WOM and more typical holiday legs. Amazing, just amazing. Did not see this coming at all Granted TROS could completely rain on its parade and screw this all up. Still, even "just" 650m WW would be a big win for this film

Not that it matters, but SLOP2's budget was 80m, dropping that multiple down to 5.375x It is very possible that Jum3 will hit that multiple or higher (750m WW would be 6x multiple, same multi as SLOP2 gets it to 671m WW)

I feel bad about even responding to this, but what?? The MCU has had 4 of 7 200m+ openers (the other two of which are SW) and 8 movies that opened above 150m+, that is as big as it gets franchise-wise. Those are also, however, non-Dec openings (which are proportionally smaller, putting Ep7's 247m opening in Dec in a similar ballpark to EG's April 357m opening) and the MCU does not rely on domestic as much as SW does, so the comparison is mostly irrelevant. Anyways no one is questioning whether TROS will or will not make world class money domestically. It will. The debate is about directionality. Much of the hype about the MCU "ruling the world" has been its mindblowing ascent to box office superstardom. SW is different. Its box office royalty in the purest sense, dominating the box office for decades (a test the MCU hasnt yet faced, and it may not be able to replicate such sustained interest like SW has). A 180m+ opening is great, but for SW its a slight indication of declining interest given the mindblowing openings of the past two episode films Anyways, openings are more about past films than anything else. TROS might have to pay for the Last Jedi's reception, the question is whether its quality will help it reap the full benefits of its uber leggy release date. The release date is better than Last Jedi's, mainly given where the main holidays fall in the calender and the fact that the holidays are closer to its first weekend than they were for Last Jedi (which lost a lot of steam following that second weekend drop). I think that audience reception is the most important component. If it can regain the trust of its audience, even if the BO is a slight disappointment, it will help set SW up to remain at the top of the Box office food chain for the decades to come Lastly, this isnt the end of SW. If the movie does "fail" the ship can still be righted. People seem to constantly underestimate the size of SW's fanbase and impact on culture. Give the franchise a multi year break, take the franchise in a different direction or do something else to freshen it up, and I think the next SW film has a chance at the dom record again

Jumanji is as much a comedy as any MCU movie and as much a kids movie as any four-quad movie in general. I'd say its much more a kind of action adventure type film for all ages (clearly with a strong comedic bent, but its absolutely not a traditional comedy and shouldnt be compared to those films pre-sales wise). I think the low presales can be pretty easily explained. There isnt much of a Jumanji fanbase, its targeted to general audiences and walkups like the first one was. I expect it to be backloaded as hell, though I also doubt we'll see a repeat of the first one legs wise

The Xmas - New Years corridor is the most lucrative movie going period all year. Rentrak (now Comscore) ran a similar study but asking participants after the holidays how many movies they had seen. The average was just above 3 if I remember correctly, its really insane. If WOM builds for TROS, the skys the limit

Ant Man films do get a higher percentage of kids tickets. The thing is that under 25 isnt kids, in the MCU's case its most often the 18-24 set (though their audiences do skew much older than many suspect). The lower percentage for Ant Man and the Wasp partially reflects a higher family audience. Families made up a minority of EG's audience for example, which per deadline was ~20% (11% kids 9% parents) on opening https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-opening-weekend-box-office-record-1202602445/. Kids dont go alone, parents come with them, and those parents count as over 25s. EDIT: In addition, Ant-Man skews toward families: Similar to the original, the sequel brought in 28% of that demo. https://deadline.com/2018/07/ant-man-and-the-wasp-opening-box-office-overperform-marvel-1202422128/

Haha I think you're just trying to start some shit because I dont think youre much of a Disney fan, but yea let's leave Disney out of this. Let's enjoy this run, this will probably usher in a whole new era of darker, R-rated CBMs. Its going to be really really hard for future such movies to top this one though, Joker + festival wins (and Oscar buzz) + pent up demand for darker R-rated CBM fare + controversies + novelty of it all = an incredibly potent combo, not one you can really plan for

I mean, ER today is only about 1% off what Deadpool (2016) faced on OW, but yea ER in general is rough, 3% down since AEG and ER was super low at that point too

If it only hits 91M it'll be as front-loaded as Endgame. I think it'll do better than that, my guess is 95M, but if the younger demos come out in force it could surprise to the upside on Saturday (under 25s rated the movie the most highly by a big margin, but they were in the minority compared to 25+, there's room for them to come out given how strong the WOM is in that demo and push the film higher Saturday). Still quite front-loaded from an internal multiplier perspective but that shouldn't be surprising. Internal multis should not be compared to R-rated dramas/thrillers, this is first and foremost a movie about the Joker. All things considered, just normal CBM frontloading

For what its worth, I just completely shocked myself looking at seating charts for Joker in Switzerland (can be found on Cineman.ch). Joker doesnt release in the German part until the 9th, but most theaters across the canton Zurich are about 40% filled (there are seating charts for each theater). Switzerland may be one of the least presale heavy (most walk up heavy) countries in the world, in part because they never seem to get hyped about anything, let alone movies, but they are hyped about Joker. It truly is remarkable. Switz BO falls in line with Germany and France. I know this is very anecdotal, but I haven't seen such strong early sales since Endgame here in Switz (not that I expect Joker to do AEG numbers, but Joker is clearly going to be a box office force here)

Past Golden Lion winners have made a killing in Spain. It was the 3rd highest grossing region for both Brokeback Mountain and The Shape of Water and the 4th highest grossing for The Wrestler. The Venice platform will give Joker a very nice boost in Europe, Spain and Italy in particular (though in the examples of past Golden Lion Winners, Spain outgrossed Italy in each case). Its not a big sample to be sure, but it helps highlight the importance of Venice as a platform

Oh please. I mean technically yea, but at the end of the day this isnt just an R-rated character study. This is CBM featuring one of the most iconic CBM characters of all time. Between festival glory and controversies, its also one of the most talked about, attention grabbing movies of the year. Lets not pretend this is Taxi Driver, this is ultimately a highly marketable movie of which awareness and interest levels have been sky high since the film's announcement. Its aping the festival buzz and messaging that typically elevates even unknown movies to box office glory and combining it with the ravenous fan base and global awareness of one of cinema's greatest icons. To just compare this with true-to-form R-rated character studies does those movies a massive disservice

Idk about special day, but tomorrow is a national holiday, that must help

Aquaman is without a doubt an exception. Bumblebee, Spiderverse (despite a more frontloaded release date before the holiday kickoff) and MPR all outlegged it, hell Jumanji even pulled a 10x the year before. So yes, that 4.9x multiplier means nothing comps wise, its the only Xmas CBM release of its kind. Shazam had normal legs (though its opening was so low I would say thats an exception on its own in the DC universe) and WW, well WW had fantastic legs no two ways around it. So sure, WW and Shazam had amazing to normal legs. I dont think you can discount every other DCEU movie though, it'll take a win or two more before we can forget about DC's previous multipliers. I think, though, it speaks more to the proportionately higher fan rush component to DC movies. Prior to WW, DC films (Nolan trilogy included) had notoriously poor OW internal multipliers. There's an article about it I can attach, about how Marvel had more backloaded OWs since they played to a broader audience (another way of putting it is a comparatively lower fan rush component). That has obviously started to change for Marvel EDIT: Also I wouldnt call Suicide Squad's 2.43X multiplier in August normal legs, its one of the most backloaded months. Then again, given the hype for the film and resulting fan rush (as well as poor reviews) I certainly wouldnt call them terrible legs either all things considered

I know you're joking, but its conceivable they do a TDK style expansion in late Jan. That added low single digit millions (from 531M (earning sub 10k weekends prior) to mid 533M, not the 2012 re-release which pushed it to 535M). If Phoenix actually takes home best actor that might be worth a bit more who knows, but given the hype surrounding the film, I have a really hard time seeing this play out like other awards buzz films who were notoriously backloaded and released closer to awards season

Feel compelled to reiterate that DC films, especially those including Batman/Joker, are some of the least walk-up heavy/most advance sale (Thursday) driven CBM movies (Nolan films as well, since BvS and Suicide Squad had reviews to weigh them down even more, TDK was much much more presale and Thursday-driven than its time-and-genre appropriate peers Spidey 3 and Ironman 1 & 2). In this case though its hard not to see a perfect storm brewing. Ridiculous first choice tracking metrics, awards buzz and controversy (which stirs tons of free media + adds curiosity + throws social media into a frenzy (all of which duh, only helps the movie, and the huge added bonus that divisiveness sells in today's world)) make me feel like 100m+ is an eventuality. If that isnt yet borne out in the tracking info, then in some way I guess I agree with you.... Though I still think in the end it will be more presale or Thursday heavy than most CBMs

Not bad, not bad. I have doubts about this film's playability in China, but OS-China should be able to get to at least 120M - 140M. Factor in an alright China BO (they like Brad Pitt and space movies) I could see this film saving some face. Should be able to cut the bleeding and minimize loss. I think Fox did the right thing selling the China dist rights, would've been tough to be fully exposed to the 80M-100M budget

At least 8x I agree, even though its a beloved character we've seen before, I have a hard time seeing it play out like a sequel multi-wise WB did contend that the shooting had an impact in general, but they gave multiple reasons why it didnt reach Dark Knight numbers (I would argue no argument was needed, following up one of the most defining films of our generation would be a tall order regardless). Even if the shooting had a big effect, at the end of the day it played out like a typical massive blockbuster sequel to a massive breakout. Other fan rush films had even lower multis. HP8 a year before opened 4x from midnights (43m to 169m)