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Justin4125

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Everything posted by Justin4125

  1. Endgame box office fans, buckle up, the keepers of the Avatar flame are about to kick it even further into overdrive. This will be an even rougher couple of weeks now that the record is sure to fall Stand fast
  2. Its pretty damn simple Avatar fans - don't downplay exchange rates, they essentially nullify any inflation adjustments at the OS box office for Avatar Endgame fans - Yes, "market growth" is often overestimated in LatAm and Europe (in the latter markets have more likely contracted). But as we all know, the story of this decade in terms of box office has been China, and as Alexdube mentions, there is no point in trying to downplay it. While adjusting Avatar for inflation does little to increase its OS gross (since ATP in dollar terms has actually fallen in several majors) adjusting for market growth, mainly the explosive growth in the Chinese market, would make Avatar's box office, with all said adjustments included, larger than that of Endgame, no doubt about it
  3. Screendaily reported prior to the weekend that EG was actually around 1.928bn OS As many have said, actuals were incorrect last weekend I think this was the article, Ive used up my 6 free articles with them so I cannot verify https://www.screendaily.com/box-office/can-anything-touch-spider-man-far-from-home-at-international-box-office-this-weekend/5141156.article
  4. These Endgame numbers are insane. Screendaily reported that EG was around 1.928 OS going into the weekend, I didnt think it was true, but I guess the record is assured now
  5. Highly doubtful for TROS. Not even TFA hit 100m USD and TLJ finished at around 66m. Then of course there was Solo, which though not a fair comparison, certainly makes a case for diminishing returns in Japan for the brand (again, probably a bit unfair though). Phantom Menace seems to have been the peak for SW movies in Japan I am also a bit skeptical about TLK. OG Aladdin outperformed OG Lion King in Japan, and the Jungle Book (similar in terms of the technology) didnt get far at all in Japan
  6. Yea, but I would argue any One Piece fan worth his salt knows One Piece isnt amazing because of Luffy, if anything its amazing in spite of Luffy, its the incredible world and the characters around Luffy that make it unparalled when it comes to long-running battle shonen. No disrespect to Luffy, I love him, but he's certainly not the reason why One Piece is so great But hey, it probably comes down to what you watched growing up more than anything, if Naruto was your gig that's fine, it was also pretty damn great EDIT: Sorry for going so off-topic. Great numbers from TLK. I too was hoping for huge numbers, but I think I've been getting ahead of myself in expecting big numbers for Hollywood movies (like for Detective Pikachu and KoTM) after Venom, Aquaman and EG blew the doors off the Chinese box office. 150m finish for what is essentially a Disney animated film would be fantastic Also huge grats and thanks to ZeeSoh and others for nailing the OW so well early on in tracking
  7. TFA isnt a good comp for Endgame based on release date Comparing IW to EG I think yes, EG traded a bit of its legs for a higher OW. This is not the case in general, but Endgame was probably one of the most hyped movies ever, which in conjunction with the no spoiler rush and theater operators working overtime, led to massive OWs around the world. So big in fact, I would argue Endgame tested the limits of its audience. EG is, after all, the 22nd movie, and its following IW which itself was a break-out of sorts. For it to make so much more money than IW means that people who never watched Marvel movies watched EG. In general, however, the MCU has given audiences plenty of time to determine whether or not they are fans. EG tested the limits of the MCU audience across the world, and I believe it literally ran out of audience, resulting in lower than normal legs despite fantastic audience reception across the world Legs generally come from a movie surpassing expectations and finding a broader audience as a result. Not sure how much bigger of an audience Endgame could have found and lets face it, it wasnt the most accessible movie to those who have not seen the previous Marvel movies. Imagine watching Endgame without understanding any of the story or emotional beats, not quite the A+ cinemascore film that it was for MCU fans Long-winded way of saying that I would agree a bigger OW resulting in lower legs applies to Endgame, but not many other movies (except perhaps Harry Potter 8, another conclusion to a long running franchise that overperformed on OW and ran out of audience despite terrific reception (at least in the US)
  8. I hate to be nitpicky, but I have seen this statement a hundred times on this thread regarding SW7's presales. Fandango reported that Christmas day was the 3rd highest presale day after Thursday and Friday. However, this must have been by a very slim margin, because independent samplers noted that 94.5% of those who prebought tickets to SW7 did so for opening weekend https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-opening-weekend-box-office-audience-1201667970/
  9. I can't let this slide either. You can absolutely stand fast in your personal views, and you will find no ridicule or disrespect from me on account of those views, but you cannot speak for "everyone". Ratings websites and box office grosses are surely imperfect measures of a film's quality or audience reception, but at the very least I believe they provide enough of an indication for me to tell you that you are clearly in the minority. It's funny, in the course of two months I went from a casual MCU fan who enjoyed Endgame to someone who, more often than not, staunchly defends the movie. It seems a small but strong contingent of people believe they are entitled not only to their own opinions, but also those of "everyone". As a member of "everyone", I find this at least a little bit offensive .
  10. Woah woah woah, are you trolling or being serious? Do you have any idea how many re releases Avatar had? They also had their special edition and sporadic re releases across many countries. But, I have a better idea. Would you agree we shouldn't count these special edition, poster giveaway, re-release cash grabs? Perfect, let's not count those, they are very embarrassing as you say. Well in that case Endgame beat Avatar handily. No giveaways, no t shirts, no second marketing pushes. Avatar's initial run totaled at 2.749bn, it was only with a slew of special edition re releases that Avatar got to its current heights. Before the re release Endgame had passed 2.75bn and was still earning money domestically and internationally. I'm happy we agree on that, now we don't need to be kept in suspense any longer, Endgame already has the record
  11. So let me get this straight. IW was such perfection as a finale you lost all interest in comic book movies? So your preferred ending for the MCU was that the heros lose miserably and half of all life is destroyed across the universe? I havent seen Far From Home, but aside from TS4, what else is there in theaters? Im not a comic book movie fan per se, but I like going to the theaters to have a good time and who doesnt love action movies with comedy and teen romance mixed in. Im fairly certain the film will at least be a good time at the movies, isnt that enough? I mean, seriously, does it really matter that its a comic book movie? I mean absolutely no disrespect, you should do whats right for you. Just seems like a strange rationale, from my perspective genre is just the packaging a movie comes in, it hardly plays a role for me if the movie is good
  12. Which is exactly one reason why the film has been so leggy. I think a not insignificant part of the GA shared your sentiment, and this skepticism (as a result of those trailers (genie-gate), a general apathy towards the whole live action trend and the film's mixed reviews) fueled the film's legs. Those who skipped the film on OW came out later following great WOM. Legs are all about how a film is perceived relative to expectations and Aladdin leapt considerably above a pretty low bar I also think its strange that so many theaters discounted Spidey tickets. Many who showed up on opening day likely would have regardless of discounts, they definitely left some money on the table. Tuesday discounts have become almost absurd in the last few years, I know at cinema con many exhibs were talking about curtailing discounts
  13. Oh come on. This is a little too hyperbolic. Its not like it rained every day April - May. Plus it was Spring, a period in which, on average, it rains more. Its not like every Spring release grosses significantly more than do summer releases, which additionally benefit from summer vacation. In any case, you're suggesting a few extra rainy days/weekends resulted in an over 50% swing at the box office. For a massive frontloaded fan film like Endgame and IW, there's just no way the effect is so large (or any film for that matter). EG almost outgrossed IW in its OW alone, I think its safe to presume it would have outgrossed IW regardless
  14. Warner bros had a record breaking year last year with 5.6bn at the global box office MCU alone may hit 5bn this year.... Crazy doesnt even begin to describe it. 4bn last year, ~5bn this year, its almost nauseating haha. The MCU is top notch but it sucks the oxygen out of the BO for other movies. I hope going forward some deserving up and coming films/franchises get a little room to shine as well
  15. My blood pressure spiked when I read this NCsoft post. I didn't think I had a dog in this fight, but this just really rubbed me the wrong way. I am posting just the first sentence below. I think this is the first time someone wrote something that really irritated me on this forum (I invite you to comb through my posts). Congrats poster, you pulled it out of me In this post you preach objectivity, yet you provide an incredibly one-sided defense of Avatar. You try to hide behind a veneer of level-headedness, but your tone fails to mask your blatant biases. Additionally, many of your points are circuitous and even approach contradiction. Now I could forgive all that, but you chose to attack the poster directly. You question his integrity and attempt undermine his legitimacy. This post, this very post, has pissed me off more than any other snide retort or insult, precisely because you attempt to take some kind of box office moral high ground. You start by questioning Charlies integrity!! You're not even discussing numbers here, you go in straight for the kill? What the hell are you doing. FIrst of all, Charlie wouldnt be dictating numbers to us. We would be working as a community to find these admissions numbers, and if you've been on this thread any length of time, you would know that every number will be cross examined. Charlie's own objectivity is immaterial for the purposes of this thread, which, just to repeat one more time, is to collectively gather and verify admissions numbers. These comments were completely unnecessary and simply mean-spirited. Was it really worth it to you? Charlie has contributed so much to this forum, and you, simply over the prospect of an admissions count, attempt to drag his integrity through the mud. Even your grounds for doing so are dubious. Ok, so, someone wants to start counting admissions to Endgame and Avatar, you start by doing your best to undermine that person's integrity, what's your second move? You suggest admissions number are irrelevant for a movie's success, yet you follow that up with a laundry list of every possible disadvantage Avatar faced and why, in fact, it was far more successful than Endgame despite what the admissions numbers may suggest. This paragraph is rife with issues. In essence you're saying the following: admissions numbers don't matter, especially if Endgame has higher admissions than Avatar, BUT admissions do matter, and Avatar was way more successful because we should be implicitly discounting all of Endgame's admission numbers. The purpose of this thread is to count numbers. These numbers would not in themselves tell us which film was more successful. Once we have the numbers, we can perhaps have such a discussion, but you're trying to frontload the discussion, nay the gathering process itself, with the forgone conclusion that Avatar was more successful. I have a Master's degree in Economics and I work in investment management. As a result I have a strong appreciation for metrics. You gather data first, which should be untainted with the biases you seem to want to bake in. Then, once you have reliable numbers, you use them as tools in more qualitative discussions. These numbers would NOT tell us which film is more successful. Their interpretation and their significance relies on context and all the factors you mentioned (and all the factors in Endgame's favor which are conspicuously absent from your comments) would adorn the numbers. The numbers are just numbers. They are pure and unbiased. For someone seeking an objective data gathering process, you are fervently arguing for biases to taint the numbers themselves. You, my friend, are completely undermining the very objectivity you claim to want. For someone who wishes the "people involved in this exercise has a history of objectivity" you certainly seem to fail your own criterion more so than most others on this thread.
  16. I would push back against that. Box office pro first pegged it at 113m and first tracking numbers were 115 - 130m. Between a lack of a father's day boost (which Dory and I2 both benefited a bit from) and lower unaided interest for TS4 than both I2 and Dory (I think BOP also cited the whole "older fans felt TS3 was the perfect conclusion") TS4 has always had a bit of an uphill challenge. Also about the reviews. I am always wary of the impact of great reviews on OW expectations and even more so for this particular franchise. The Toy Story franchise has always been buoyed by top level reviews and I think it all becomes relative after a while. I feel that bad reviews could have dropped this film quickly, but I dont think amazing reviews propel it much further upwards. Perfect reviews are almost expected of the franchise, and perhaps anything less (currently sitting at a 98%) may make the film seem a "lesser" Toy Story film. In any case, the franchise set the bar dangerously high OW numbers always get pumped up so quickly following positive reviews and one or two good presale days. If you accept that reviews may not have the biggest impact for this franchise. and that there are some legitimate factors working against it, I think 150m is too high bar for disappointment. Under 130m we'll see, but we're talking a big increase from TS3 which itself had everything going for it
  17. This has to be the zaniest comparison I've ever seen lol. Obviously even with all the inflation and 3d adjustments you can muster, S2's opening was not the equivalent of a 400m 6 day. You're just referring the magnitude with which Spiderman 2 increased over S1 (although its worth noting it fell short of S1's domestic total) You're saying the degree to which Spiderman 2's 6 day OW beat the previous OW record (S1), would be the equivalent of a film today doing doing 400m in 6 days? Comparing this to FFH obviously does not make much sense since Homecoming was far from the OW record holder. Much more appropriate would be comparing AEG to IW, as the former is a sequel to the latter and both were OW record holders. Anyways here is the only relevant comparison I can see using the same logic. The degree to which AEG's 6 day OW beat the previous 3 day OW, would be the equivalent of Spiderman 2 having done 200m in 6 days! Applying the magnitude of S2's increase in 6 days over S1's 3 day gross to FFH's potential 6 day gross makes no sense whatsoever
  18. You are absolutely right, we cannot ascribe WW's success to her gender and no one should go so far as to say that that was the primary reason for the film's success. However, I do think it undeniably helped the film at the BO, but this has nothing to do with any kind of disbelief that the DCEU can succeed on this level (the DC films have performed very well even without WW, potential is sky high as far as Im concerned). Rather it is simply that women overindexed and female demos increased even more after OW helping to fuel her legs. From Deadline A lot of this box office momentum can be attributed to the strong turnout by female audiences who have been waiting for this classic superhero’s big screen debut. With any four-quad superhero movie, there’s never any concern about guys showing up; it’s typically the females who trail just a tad behind. She hit those demos even more so than Captain Marvel. I think both WW and BP benefited from a "first of its kind" cultural event status, which in both cases hinged on the movie being good (both films were hailed by critics as the best of their respective franchises). They received a ton of free advertising from supportive news stations, newspapers, social media frenzies etc and as a result also pulled in an unusually high proportion of non-CBM fans. Crazy Rich Asians falls into this category as well, and for all three movies mentioned so far, that the target demos overindexed so significantly helped to fuel the box office Again, not a dig against the film in any way. I agree that the high multiplier (together with huge after market success) suggests the potential of WW may actually be much higher
  19. Since that first 59% drop, it was right at 50% for two weekends and the last two weekends it dropped sub 50 (-28% and -44.5% in USD terms) and held better than Pikachu last weekend. Based on Pika's drop I think better that sub 50% is very feasible. That said, its at the end of its run, its not like great or poor holds matter much now. Those first few drops took it down fast, after that solid holds are just trivia
  20. Oh Im sorry, I meant JW2 in context as Jurassic World 2, I was comparing last year's summer biggies to this year's summer biggies, pointing out that while we may only have 2 non-Disney titles to beat JW3 domestically this summer, we only had 2 non Disney flicks to do so last year (Jurassic World and MI5). Again, I do think Hobbs and Shaw can beat JW3 domestically, but just not by that much. Im expected a 20/80 DOM/OS split like with Fate Isnt the film produced by Marvel studios? Disney participates from the film's success in 2 ways. First it could expand the MCU, strengthening the brand adding more fans etc and it has a financial connection through toy sales. Spiderman is one of the best (1 and 2 with Batman) merch seller of all the superheros. In short, the more success FFH the more Disney profits. Between Spiderman with Sony and now owning Fox, I honestly feel the FTC should have stopped the Fox merger On the other hand, I think it would have helped Disney to be able to end Phase 4 on Endgame. I feel like another MCU movie so soon could really stretch the franchise. Then again theyve released so many movies in such quick succession without tiring audiences, so maybe not (honestly the most impressive part of the MCU, 4bn from MCU last year and another 4bn this year (~5bn with spiderman). LIterally mind blowing, hate them or love them, the Marvel studios on its own could be a major Hollywood studio and there's something perverse about that much box office success)
  21. Twice as profitable domestic? That only applies to Furious 7, while Fate of the Furious was only about 35% above JW3 domestically. My logic is that the franchise will follow its downward trajectory domestically (assuming Furious 7 represented the franchises top potential domestically) and that as a spinoff it will struggle even more so domestically compared to the last "main" entry. Yes, the Rock and Statham are very popular movie stars, but I also believe their drawing power domestically is not as high as it is internationally I still expect it to pass JW3, but I really dont think itll blow by it. I also think itll come in under Fate of the Furious domestically. Interest across social media/youtube has trailed Fate of the Furious by a considerable margin, but those are not solid indicators so who knows
  22. I think Hobbs and Shaw and JW3 could be pretty close domestically Not much worse than last year though, and that's mainly because JW2 is bigger than Hobbs and Shaw. Last year (if we exclude Deadpool 2 which is now Disney) JW2 and Fallout were the only non-Disney 200M+ dom grossers until the fall (and the only ones above 150M were HT3 and A Quiet Place). It then took until the end of October for a non-Disney film to cross what JW3 will gross domestically EDIT: We can cancel out A Quiet Place and HT3 with Us and HTTYD3 respectively. So basically its like last year, with JW2 and MI5 stronger domestically than Hobbs and Shaw and Once Hollywood will be, but still the latter 2 films are the only non-Disney summer flicks with domestic potential above JW3
  23. Although it appears Shaft might be the bigger flop, which is surprising to me. Film rights to Netflix were only around 6-7m, which means WB is on the hook for around 30m production and domestic P&A without any money from international. WB can't catch a break, though to be fair this applies to all non-Disney studios right now. At least WB has Joker and IT2 which will more than make up for the first half of the year Though New Line only spent around $35M before P&A, and sold off foreign to Netflix for what we hear now was only $6M-$7M, some film finance sources literally believe this film could bleed more money than Men in Black: International at the end of the day. We’ll come back to that point
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