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Justin4125

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  1. This is a very common misconception. People see the performances of the MCU and the Fast Franchise and believe that its normal for sequels to increase. Maybe some high profile ones do, but the break out sequel is rare Now, in the past (70s, 80s, 90s) it was almost guaranteed that a sequel would make less than its predecessors. Nowadays with streaming (legal or otherwise) and the internet in general, there are so many more ways to grab an audience after the first film. This helped to improve a sequel's box office prospects In the early 2000s, we saw tremendous market growth in EM, further helping sequels to outgross their predecessors worldwide (though domestic declines happen ~90%+ of the time) Since the financial crisis, EM market growth has slowed outside of China (to a lesser extent Indonesia, but its a small market by comparison). That said, China is big enough of a market that it still helped many sequels to save face, or even gross a bit more, than their predecessors Market growth in China is slowing now as well, and as it does, the built in OS bump will have less of an effect. Sequels to recent films dont have other factors, such as a 3D bump or inflation working for them, and I believe this will further impact the performance of sequels (inflation has moved at a snails pace last few years, even slower in premium formats, and this has happened globally (EM ATP bumps have slowed as the moviegoing markets mature) Long story short though, even with the help of the above factors, it has been relatively rare to see a sequel outperform the original. For every out performance you have multiple declines
  2. I totally agree. Considering the cast + Tarantino and my own feeling that the market is starving for an adult drama (a sorely underserved market given that studios increasingly make their event films pleasing to all four quadrants in order to hedge themselves financially) I have high hopes for this movie. I think even if it doesnt hit that chord itll do just fine box office wise, but if it does we could definitely see $200M+ EDIT: 200M+ domestically, it will surely perform well in some OS regions as well
  3. Check out Xmen first class, DP is playing very similarly (Xmen day 25 monday was higher (though it was later in July) and it was running about 2m higher as well, so about 145m is probably the ceiling for DP Again, this has just been a really competitive May/early June. DP started in the vacuum left by AEG and will end in the midst of one or two tentpoles releasing every week. A more accomodating release date and normal international exchange rates, DP could have easily been a 500m-550m grosser. WB will definitely take this into account when thinking about sequels
  4. Exactly, plus its demos skew older than those of DP and Shazam! Still, I'll take tiny sliver of solace in the fact that its Sun-Mon drop was on par with that of Rocketman
  5. If it can cross Avatar's original run Ill be ecstatic, but yes, its too bad it doesnt have months of zero material competition like Avatar one or two event movies per week, disappointing or otherwise, makes it pretty difficult to keep gas in the tank
  6. Most of us follow the box office because we want to see the films we enjoy succeed. Can you relate to how bad it feels the film youve been so excited for disappoints in a potential franchise killing way? Maybe you can give us kaiju fans a break. Some of us have left the forums entirely to avoid snide commets from users who want to rub our noses in our previously optimistic box office projections or seem to get some satisfaction from ragging on the film. Its not enough that critics disliked it and that its box office prospects look dimmer by the minute, but now a bunch of people are jumping on the thread just to give hyperbolic reviews (like "worst movie ever", "toilet trash" etc). Of course there is denial, this whole thing is actually kind of emotional for some people. As longtime fans, the film's rejection somehow feels personal. I know its ridiculous to root for a studio film and hope it makes money, but if you can get over that maybe you can empathize. Give us a little time to get some distance, then we can start doing a more objective analysis
  7. Highly doubtful. I would argue its more in their interest to keep Avatar as the top grossing movie. Listen AEG is done now, they can pick up their big bags of cash and be mighty happy with the film's crazy overperformance. But there is little additional value in having AEG be the biggest of all time worldwide. Its unlikely we will see an MCU of this scale for years now, on the other hand, there is another Avatar coming down the pipes. How much better for marketing would it be to have Avatar as the biggest movie of all time when A2 is being released? Sequel to the highest grossing movie of all time is much better marketing than sequel to the 2nd highest
  8. It didnt need to double JW2 in order to equal its profit. JW3 added about 35M to the budget, though I doubt marketing increased much from 2 to 3 (TV spend certainly didnt, plus awareness of the brand is much stronger this time around. P&A is largely a fixed cost, Ill almost guarantee you it barely changed from JW2 to JW3). In any case, grossing an additional 100M will more than cover the additional production costs. Trust me, the multipliers are misleading, a 40M film grossing 200M is more profitable than a 20M film grossing 100M The only thing that might skew this are participations and home entertainment. A big part of the profit story has always been home ent, which went up from JW1 to JW2 (very rare for sequels) and in both cases was very strong relative to the size of the gross). With these factors JW3 might be a little less profitable than JW2 (since Home ent normally decreases for sequels), but not by much. In any case, the studio definitely prefers the higher WW gross, even if it cost them more to get there
  9. I mean, they clearly do care. They wouldnt want to tarnish the Xmen brand and on top of that they have a financial interest in the film. Disney absolutely cares, its in their interest to care
  10. I'm holding my breath with KoTM, hoping it wont be as frontloaded as its predecessors (potentially solid WOM vs tough competition, we will see....) AEG took a big theater hit this weekend, but it suffered an even more significant loss of screens (seems like it lost more screens than Pikachu across the board despite still outgrossing it stateside). Im not sure about how much control Disney has over the release of DP given legacy Fox moneymen have the biggest stakes in the film, but if they can somehow minimize screen/theater loss despite DP's release, it could help stem some of the bleeding with AEG. Its memorial day hold was still very solid compared to the other big films during the same period, MD has never provided much of a cushion compared to other holidays In any case, all of these wide releases are crowding each other out, very reminiscent of 2014 (when, interestingly enough, we had a Godzilla, Disney live action and an Xmen movie). All films during the same period were fighting for screens and losing them fast, with steep week to week drops until the competition thinned out a bit later into June. I just hope KoTM and Dark Phoenix can save some face (and for DP to leg it into solid profit territory)
  11. X3 has become like the epitome of movies that do not get critically acclaimed, though I personally had a good time watching it, still it was an especially tough blow following the great X2. I see it akin to XMA, if it weren't for the trajectory of the Wolverine films, I would say Xmen has a third movie curse I like that you included First Class up there, I still feel that movie is criminally underrated
  12. While disappointing, I think $450M would be a moral victory at this point, especially if the film builds some goodwill. At the very least, $450M will make any losses minimal (potential breakeven further down the road) and wont jeopardize the MonsterVerse, sub $400M and we have a bigger problem
  13. Im actually seeing slightly higher base case. I think competition somewhat compressed OW (plus the crater still left by success of previous titles). Now it has summer play (and some holidays) in many markets. I see 130M China, 167M OS-China (slightly higher multiplier and adding in about ~5M from remaining territories) and 125-130M Dom, for a 422M - 427M finish. Again, with good WOM, a flat Dark Phoenix and a lucky break over Dragon Boat holiday in China, 450M - 475M is in the realm of possibility. With those numbers it might eek into breakeven, and if it builds goodwill for Godzilla v Kong, could still be chalked up as moral victory 500M though is a long shot, hard to see a path to it right now, but lets see how it holds up EDIT: Timmy Riggins, check out Ready Player One's crazy multiple in China and solid multiples in US, Japan, UK, France, SK and Australia. KoTM will likely be more frontloaded given its fanbase. However, in general I am with you, this film could leg it out, I just don't think great legs are a reasonable assumption for a base case
  14. I know its really too bad. Again, people really seem to like the film (its very highly rated on our local cinema websites and social media from the countries I mentioned has been very positive). Purely anecdotal, but audiences at my theater were very animated (highly unusual for a Swiss audience). For a franchise with plans beyond this film, building goodwill is very important. Despite the lower than expected OWs in Europe, I think this film is helping the franchise to gain momentum. This film was always facing an uphill battle between competition and reception to G2014, but I think we can put stock in those fantastic exits and various audience scores and take some comfort knowing that for audiences, this film has started to rebuild interest and trust By the way, I have yet to find a film with such great exits on PostTrak and yet a B+ Cinemascore. For what its worth, KoTM's exits are in line with, or better than, those of Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman, both of which scored solid As on Cinemascore
  15. This really is a fantastic OW for the market (keep in mind Pikachu opened on that super moviegoing holiday and AEG is AEG). This is a very meaningful number to me, if the Japanese are enjoying the film I think that speaks volumes about the film's quality since the GA there is in the aggregate more aware of/closer to the Godzilla franchise compared with US audiences. I firmly believe this makes them better able to understand (and even judge) the film (though of course cultural barriers and their adoration for their own versions of Godzilla may also make them more critical). I had heard (not sure if this is true) that many Japanese Godzilla fans were turned off by G2014, with complaints ranging from the film's tone and story to the design of the monsters (fat Godzilla). I was fully expecting a steep drop from G2014, and that they have so embraced the film (based on online reactions and BO numbers) gives KoTM a much needed win For the record, WOM over here in Switzerland/Germany/France continues to be strong (especially compared to G2014 and KSI). Sad that it isnt breaking out, but the weak OW numbers seem to have little to do with the film itself and more with GA appetite for such films in general (which I guess is worse....)
  16. Hahaha, yes of course, I feel like people dont give Disney enough credit for their cutting edge algorithms. They are years ahead of the US and Russia in AI, to the extent that you cannot tell if you're talking to a real person or a bot. There is only one tried and true method to discern a bot.. if the user shows any kind of support for Disney bingo, its a bot. Its getting harder nowadays, bots have become very subtle, even feigning support for other films to hide their true nature. Between the bots, paying off hundreds of critics simultaneously (and threatening their families to ensure not a single one of them speaks out in frustration), and buying out hundreds of theaters, Disney has been able to create the illusion of success. Just don't be so naive to think any of it is real
  17. Yea after Captain Marvel betting against the MCU right now is baseless. Look all we have are precedents, and no franchise has better precedents than the MCU (launching both core characters and unknown/spin off type films). When the MCU makes a bomb we can start to question the BO potential of their films. At the moment, there is no reason aside from silly speculation to think Black Widow will at least do well. For heavens sake Ant Man did those numbers at a time when the MCU's profile was lower (relatively speaking) than it is now, and he wasnt an Avenger! Writing off Black Widow is akin to the internet believing its own bullshit and thinking Cap M would tank, clearly the GA will carry the MCU wherever it wants to go. If Black Widow disappoints, then we can have a different conversation, until then, you cant ignore the track record
  18. Doing a live action remake of Zootopia before Zootopia 2 is the dumbest thing Ive ever heard. They can just franchise Zootopia, a live action reboot wont make sense until they can bank on intergenerational nostalgia and that will take around 20+ years after the last Zootopia film (if they do in fact franchise it and release sequels, which is not entirely clear). Creating a live action film is very expensive, and until they have a new generation to introduce the film to, its too risky a proposition
  19. Not only was 600M absolutely achievable looking at G14 and KSI's runs, but given the budget they shelled out it was definitely a target. If Godzilla was never a 600m movie, they wouldnt have kept investing so much in the Monsterverse. AEG was a better movie than IW, but I respect your opinion. Monsterverse would do well to take a page out of Marvel's book regarding restraint and character-driven narratives (if not the humans, develop the monsters into fully formed characters), the spectacle they already have covered I am just getting increasingly disappointed with blockbuster movies. I know its not cool to stand up for Disney on the internet, but their track record of delivering on their biggest movies really is bar none, rarely do the most hyped Disney movies disappoint (sure, maybe you personally are disappointed (you can never please everyone), but not the vast amount of audience members and critics) The Legendary/WB partnership has been pretty great so I hope it continues. I really liked KoTM and it seems so did many others. As a side note I dont think its fair to hang this underperformance on Dougherty or Legendary, they tried their best and sometimes it doesnt work out. This is certainly not a reason to scale back. People seem to get way too hung up on a studios short-term performance (one or two year lookback period). This industry is fickle, you cant just look at the most recent performance of a studio....
  20. I take some of that back, just checked Maoyan Pikachu's hold is pretty decent this weekend all things considered, wonder how much that has to do with Children's day. \Still, not bad, though doesnt make up for a so-so run
  21. Its not really impressive though. My understanding was that Charlie was not pointing out how impressive it is that Aladdin is performing better per screen, but more so pointing out the degree of screen loss it suffered. When screens are shed so rapidly, its natural for attendence per screen to go up (especially since non performing theaters/showtimes are cut the most). HIs point was more that Aladdin took a bigger hit in screens than its perfomance alone would dictate due to competition As a % of total gross, screen loss isnt such a big deal for DP anyways so not really worth mentioning. It may lose ~2% of its total potential gross had the screen loss not occured, but in its fourth weekend its run is winding down anyways. For Aladdin the impact is much higher, it didnt get much room to breathe, unlike Pikachu which had three weeks of minimal competition helping it to leg it out better than expected given its WOM
  22. Not a great comparison though given where it is in its release Plus it had next to no material competition for 3 whole weeks Very different than Aladdin facing Godzilla in its second week
  23. Lol Facebook activity has been notoriously bad at predicting BO But still, TLK has a better release date and intergenerational appeal/nostalgia compared to AEG so that helps. Ultimately though there are too many variables and things that can go wrong, predicting anything above 700m is just too speculative until the film opens
  24. Although in all fairness many monster movies have bucked that trend even with poor Maoyan scores and I have faith in the holiday boost despite losing screen count, I still see something higher than 115m though you guys have far more knowledge and experience than I do
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