FRIDAY 10 PM, 5TH UPDATE: Sources are giving me this early Top 5 rundown. Refined numbers and full analysis later:
1. Breaking Dawn Part 1 (Summit) NEW [4,061 Theaters]
Friday $73.5M (including $30.2M midnights), Estimated Weekend $139M
Yowza! Summit Entertainment is cautiously optimistic now that this fourth Twilight Saga installment Breaking Dawn Part 1 will match or beat the biggest one-day and Friday and weekend opening in the franchise’s history. Despite the worst reviews, this pic is besting the Twilight sequel New Moon. In any case it’s shattering the four-month old domestic box office slump. Also, the penultimate pic based on Stephenie Meyer’s vampire romance novels is off to a great start internationally as it started its roll out in 54 markets around the globe with Wednesday screenings from select territories totalling $8.9 million. Hollywood should thank females young and old for keeping the box office afloat this weekend. Seriously, give thanks.
2. Happy Feet Two (Warner Bros) NEW [3,606 Theaters]
Friday $6M, Estimated Weekend $22.5M
Given how well family fare is doing at the North American box office these days, the real test for this 3D sequel to George Miller’s beloved 2D toon will be over Thanksgiving weekend. But for now Happy Feet Two is grossing only half of the 2006 original, which opened to a $12M Friday and $41.5 weekend. “One word: disaster. Despite being in 3D,” a rival studio exec snarked to me tonight. Pic is releasing on the anniversary of the original. Hollywood expected a weekend opening in the high $30sM. Nope. And next week The Muppets movie debuts so more competition for the tots and their parents. On the other hand, singing and dancing penguins are darn cute.
3. Immortals (Relativity) Week 2 [3,120 Theaters]
Friday $4.5M (-70%), Estimated Weekend $13M
That’s a big drop for a 300-clone that underperformed last Friday. Immortals is not the Hail Mary that Relativity hoped it would be.
4. Jack And Jill (Sony) Week 2 [3,438 Theaters]
Friday $4M (-60%), Estimated Weekend $13M
This Jack And Jill won’t have the usual gazillion multiple of most of Adam Sandler/Happy Madison comedies.
5. Puss In Boots (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 4 [3,415 Theaters]
Friday $3M, Estimated Weekend $12M
This toon cat Puss In Boots still has a lot more than nine lives left.