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Everything posted by Alexdube
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told you RO wasn't going to be a day over Avatar after Monday 😉. And I made that call before Monday, I knew it was going to be close on that day, the only one I wasn't sure. The last day where I see A2 will be the most vulnerable is on Wednesday, but pretty sure RO has lost too much steam at this point
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Alexdube replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
I agree A2 could have been better (I still love it), but I don't think Disney had much to do with the final product. It's more about the writing, it's the first big movie Cameron didn't write mostly all by himself. Not to throw stones at the writers, but nobody can write a James Cameron movie like James Cameron. They still did a good job though I think, and I'm really looking forward to the next one. Problem is they had so many characters to juggle, and even at 3hours+ of running time, not enough time to develop them at their full potential. Not to mention, A2 and A3 were initially one movie. So a lot of what was in A2 will pay off in A3. I think the next one has every reason to be even better -
Well you would have to show me data on that... But regardless, all I'm saying is don't underestimate the damage NYE did to A2, and consequently the bigger bump it might be getting on Sunday. Even if it's playing exactly the same as a family movie, the longer running time is still going to hurt it more on NYE
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I know that's not what you said, I'm telling you that's what it is. Avatar is playing well for families. Just because of the kind of movie that it is, the marketing around it etc. At least that's what I assume, considering how well it's doing, that must be one of the demographic it's hitting well with. And it's not a competition with PiB over which one skews younger... OF COURSE PiB skews younger... I also never said it played like a typical family movie, that was not my point No but it's probably playing better in later showings (to be clear I mean any evening showings and later) than the typical family movie. That's my point: it's something in between.
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Avatar is 100% playing well for families, that's not even up to debate. And PiB is playing well for families with kids too young to see Avatar (that's from BO pro). But it's not just a family movie either, it's a four quadrant movie. So it's going to play a bit like a "family movie", but not entirely. And it's definitely not playing like mcu/sw, way ahead of you there. Bottom line: it plays well in early showings but also later showing. And because of the long running time, NYE is definitely going to hurt it a lot. I correctly guessed 24+ for Friday but I didn't even try to guess for NYE, I just knew it was probably going to drop a lot. But I still expect a very good bump today.
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think 22M is too low - that would mean identical increase to R1 which was in a solid downward trend - I also think there might be some business recuperated here from the storm last week - I also think Avatar is much stronger on a Friday than a Thursday because of the running time (not a regular Thursday of course but relatively speaking) GIMME 24+
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550 is not happening. That's barely over R1, A2 is going to fly pass that, It's going to be over 600 easy For 3 straight days now R1 is grossing less and dropping harder than A2. It's a pretty brutal trend. R1 was already showing signs of losing steam, and A2 is going to have January aallll to itself.
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There is a bit of violence yes, but nothing that most kids can't handle. PiB is a better fit for the younger kids yes, but are we seriously trying to argue that no parents are taking their kids to see Avatar? There is definitely some overlap The movie is literally about family. Many of the parts are played by young kids. Of course it's aimed at families... let's be serious