Alexdube
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Everything posted by Alexdube
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A2 is a 3+ hours long PLF skewing movie. I believe that gives the movie a soft cap on how much money it can make daily (see Monday). It also doesn't have the heavy fanbase Star Wars has, so how is A2 doing similar daily numbers to RO already? What edge does it have? Every demographic wants to see it (a true GA movie) + the PLF screens In other words, demand is burning off slower for A2 I also believe the storm is still having a lingering effect in some parts of Canada/US making it more difficult to have a clear picture on legs, but things are starting to clear up With that said, putting my chips down and making this prediction: whether or not Rogue One is above A2 on Monday, it will never be above it again -
Guys please stop downplaying Avatar's run with this admission talk...
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Alexdube replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
typical frontloaded sequel -
Jimbo did it again in SK, gravity defying numbers 1st Sunday $7,505,041 2nd Sunday $7,548,469 In France the 2nd weekend drop is 1% Some of you are drawing conclusions wait too quickly. Maybe because you've been tracking too many superhero movies where everything is decided in the first few days? We still have no idea what the legs will be like domestically because of the storm completely screwing with things.
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As I pointed out in the OS thread Certainly frontloaded in SK!! South Korea Saturday (17 Dec): $7,908,297South Korea Saturday (24 Dec): $7,907,026
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Alexdube replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
I mean that's almost no drop. Pretty amazing no? I thought everything was frontloaded these days, especially sequels -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Alexdube replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
South Korea Saturday (17 Dec): $7,908,297 South Korea Saturday (24 Dec): $7,907,026 Is this right? -
that's what I meant yeah
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At least 4 times and with 2 sequels T2 and Aliens both had exceptional legs relative to other sequels and for the time period
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meaning around 5M more per day. That would be pretty strong I guess I would be very happy with anything between 100M and 110M
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For me it's pretty simple. I'm expecting to see Avatar get convincingly better weekdays than RO between Christmas and the new year. If it's worst or equal, we're probably looking at a more "ordinary" run, but like Cameron said himself, we'll definitely know where this is going by the end of the 3rd week.
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Yeah I'm looking out my window and it's a fucking blizzard outside. Even in Canada that's "don't go outside" weather. And in some places authorities are actually telling people to stay inside. I think if you see 20M as just ok or bad, you might be in for a surprise in the coming weekdays once things go back to normal.
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Yeah it's pretty shit in Canada right now not gonna lie. Rain, hail, snow and strong winds... in some places authorities are telling people to stay inside... not good! Really hard to say how exactly it's impacting BO overall, but it's hurting it for sure. I'm thinking under normal circumstances Avatar would have a stronger Friday than R1. As is, above 20m would be amazing.
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True! I stand corrected
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Is that really a thing? If there is bad weather I prefer it be on a weekend where a lot of people won't go anyway because of Christmas. The proportion of people who go to the movies on Christmas as a tradition is relatively small (as demonstrated by traditionally smaller box office numbers), but you also have to take into account that some of these people are more frequent moviegoers. What's the % of people who only go to the movies on Christmas and will not ever report at a later date? I feel like that must be a pretty marginal group Obviously the storm is bad for business no matter what, but I feel like less damage is done on Christmas weekend which is already suboptimal
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Yeah that's what I'm getting at. Avatar performed better than Rogue One relative to other movies playing at the same time and considering the shit weather of this year. Avatar is obviously a tougher sell on week days because of the longer running time + It's a stronger family movie which should play much better on the weekends and the coming days between Christmas and January 1st. +the fact it's a PLF heavy movie and you still have to fight for the best seats +the fact Avatar is already matching Rogue One without the typical heavy Star Wars fanbase frontload Personally I think Avatar will smoke Rogue One in the coming days after the weather stops being frontpage news.
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Wednesday to Thursday 2016 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them +14% La La land +13.4% Moana +21.1% Rogue One +12.1% Wednesday to Thursday 2022 black panther wf: -1.8% violent night: -3.8% the whale: -60% Puss in Boots: -9.3% Avatar 2: +1.3%
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lol I know I'm erring on dangerous territory 😆 but at least I'm backing up my claims with a clear example
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Eh who cares... American critics have a soft spot for Superhero movies, it's different at the international level. For example French critic aggregator has BPWF at 2.9 out of 5. Avatar 2 is 4.2 out of 5 (also TGM at 3.7) Critics have all kinds of biases, they are not the ultimate authority on the quality of a movie. I'd say the critics have been good enough for Avatar not to hurt it too much (except in the UK maybe)
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I wouldn't normally use the weather as an excuse, but it really is a thing right now. Just look at news reports on it. If it can keep numbers similar to Rogue One under those circumstances, I'm more than happy. Next week is going to tell the real story.
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I don't normally pay much attention to the weather relative to box office performance, but the upcoming winter storm is described as a "once in a generation" type event. In Canada it's just another Wednesday, but in the US it seems like it's going to be ugly for the next few days. It'll be amazing if numbers can keep up with Rogue One in the next few days but no panic if they don't.
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Do you really expect me to believe that the release of LOTR wasn't influenced by the highest grossing movie of all time 4 years prior? Get real please...
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I said I would stop there, but since you wrote all that... How do you know what studios thought at that time, were you involved in the decision process? Listen I respect your opinion, but I think it's kind of outlandish, a big reach and pure historical revisionism to insinuate Titanic and Avatar had almost no influence on the release dates of movies that followed
