For long-term predictions, such as earnings for next weekend, and the weekend after next, etc., be sure to follow this thread (and participate in discussion!). The Japanese box-office isn't one that can really be projected in the long-term for most releases, typically only annual franchise films that are released on the same weekend every year, so you'll have to wait and see. The Japanese box-office is like a long waiting game.As for Frozen II's possible final total... It's still too early to give an accurate number, but look for a finish that could approach ¥20 billion ($180 million) and 15 million admissions.Upcoming Holidays:
The next holiday is New Year (Jan. 1st), and the subsequent bank holidays thereafter, resulting in what's simply known as "New Year Week". It's one of the three strongest weeks at the Japanese box-office, alongside "Golden Week" in late-April/early-May and "Obon Festival" in mid-August.Competition:
The Japanese box-office isn't one where films really impact one another outside of competing for screens/showtimes, but even then it's pretty rare to see a noticeable impact outside of films competing for premium format showings (3D, 4D, IMAX, etc.). And with more theaters opening that include these formats, and older theaters being upgraded to support them, the competition for premium showings is also decreasing each year in the market. There's ample room (or ability, rather) at the Japanese box-office to support many big films at a time, despite potential audience overlap. In fact, you'll usually see the entire box-office thriving during weeks of heavy competition.Special Discount Days & Discounted Tickets:
There are many, many ways to get discounted movie ticket prices in the market.
For starters, female moviegoers always get 50% off every Wednesday, which is known as "Ladies' Day". As you can imagine, films with strong female support benefit greatly from this day. Plus females make up ~60% of the moviegoer audience in the market. And secondly, every 1st of the month is "National Discount Day". All the major theater chains offer tickets at 40% off nationwide, which significantly increases their business.
In addition to those individual days, most chains offer a variety of ways to avoid paying the general admission fee. The major chains have one day of the week or month where their members receive discounted tickets. For example, Aeon Cinemas offer discounted tickets every Monday to their members; while Toho Cinemas offer discounted tickets every 20th of the month for their members.
Aeon and Toho are the two largest chains in the country, making up close to 60% of all locations in the market.
The order of biggest weekdays goes like this: Monday/Wednesday > Friday > Tuesday/Thursday.
And finally, most theater chains offer discounted tickets to individuals if they meet a specific criteria. If you're a student, you'll receive a discount. If you're a senior, you'll receive a discount. If you're a couple, you'll receive a discount. Like to see movies after 8PM? You'll receive a discount. It's actually pretty difficult TO pay the general admission fee at most theater chains. The only demographic that is out of luck are males in the workplace that aren't of senior-age yet. Why? Well, simply, they're the group with the most money and most capable of paying full price.Theater Hours/Closure:
Theaters never close in Japan, and those in Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures can operate close to 24 hours on the weekends (7/8AM-3/4AM). The majority of theaters nationwide open early with the first showings beginning at 7/8AM, but the theaters in and around Tokyo keep playing films up to midnight or later, and it's not surprising to see 2/3AM showtimes on the weekends.
I hope this post answered most of your questions, but feel free to ask more of have me elaborate on anything above.