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danhtruong5

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Posts posted by danhtruong5

  1. 36 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

    Maybe 730m by tomorrow night.

    At 20m already today 694m total.

    It has by far the highest PTA with 18% rev and 10% shows. New releases are close to flat rev% to show% or worse

    Bodes well for a good hold next week. 

    With a possible ext and holiday bump 800m+ still on table.  775m$100m floor for now

    How much can holiday bump can it get? When will the holiday start there? 

  2. 2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

    Was just  about to update. Thing will be at 650k end of the range I gave. 650-660 unless night pace or CGV ratio do something weird. Thinking FSS all about 45% weekly drop, for a 1.4M or so 3rd weekend. Hoping next week can be kind of soft, but we’ll see.

    :bourne:

    :whosad:

  3. 5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

    Walkups slightly beat that conservative estimate:

    1 Frozen 2

    Frozen 2

    U.S. 

    Nov 21, 2019 $1,645,041
    ($66,824,353)
    235,497
    (9,557,861)
    1,522 50.71%
    2 FORD v FERRARI

    FORD v FERRARI

    U.S. 

    Dec 04, 2019 $514,123
    ($1,317,839)
    66,934
    (182,570)
    934 15.84%
    3 A Little Princess

    A Little Princess

    South Korea 

    Dec 04, 2019 $256,829
    ($889,978)
    38,843
    (145,578)
    694 7.91%
    4 KNIVES OUT

    KNIVES OUT

    U.S. 

    Dec 04, 2019 $252,859
    ($721,932)
    35,634
    (108,622)
    668 7.79%
    5 Last Christmas

    Last Christmas

    U.S. 

    Dec 05, 2019 $217,647
    ($413,729)
    31,224
    (60,883)
    615 6.7%
    6 BLACK MONEY

    BLACK MONEY

    South Korea 

    Nov 13, 2019 $118,924
    ($16,830,833)
    17,165
    (2,377,382)
    465 3.66%
    7 Bring Me Home

    Bring Me Home

    South Korea 

    Nov 27, 2019 $84,623
    ($3,956,348)
    12,707
    (594,147)
    530 2.6%


     

    And F2 is back over 50% rev share. Should climb higher on Sat. Assuming it settles around 237k, this is a 45% weekly drop (and one of the  biggest 3rd Friday’s ever, let’s remember).  
     

    Sat PS are 138k. Same old song and dance by this point, but that is HUGE. Going to call for 680k admits (-42% weekly). When I try to extrapolate from KOBIS PS patterns the Sun I get doesn’t make any sense, so I’ll just wait for tomorrow before saying anything about it. 

    Any chance for 700k or a little more?

  4. Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

    Didn’t realize that in addition to the 3 openers yesterday we had 3 more today. Other than Last Christmas they’re doing negligible business.

     

    1 Frozen 2

    Frozen 2

    U.S. 

    Nov 21, 2019 $1,039,530
    ($65,083,105)
    161,206
    (9,321,989)
    1,409 45.13%
    2 FORD v FERRARI

    FORD v FERRARI

    U.S. 

    Dec 04, 2019 $343,849
    ($794,353)
    48,965
    (114,468)
    920 14.92%
    3 A Little Princess

    A Little Princess

    South Korea 

    Dec 04, 2019 $210,638
    ($627,173)
    34,560
    (106,013)
    702 9.14%
    4 KNIVES OUT

    KNIVES OUT

    U.S. 

    Dec 04, 2019 $187,571
    ($464,981)
    28,505
    (72,470)
    624 8.14%
    5 Last Christmas

    Last Christmas

    U.S. 

    Dec 05, 2019 $184,917
    ($192,509)
    28,173
    (29,176)
    618 8.02%
    6 Bring Me Home

    Bring Me Home

    South Korea 

    Nov 27, 2019 $80,334
    ($3,865,551)
    12,712
    (581,254)
    512 3.48%
    7 BLACK MONEY

    BLACK MONEY

    South Korea 

    Nov 13, 2019 $82,887
    ($16,689,333)
    12,564
    (2,359,998)
    453 3.59%
    8 The Truth

    The Truth

    France 

    Dec 05, 2019 $28,233
    ($39,957)
    5,926
    (8,001)
    109 1.22%
    9 The Good Liar

    The Good Liar

    U.S. 

    Dec 05, 2019 $25,873
    ($59,967)
    4,007
    (8,627)
    321 1.12%


    Still, Eggs of 

    FvF 99%!

    KO 97%

    LC 91%

    Little Princess 91%

    The Truth 92%

    TGL 92%

     

    CGV PS of just 37k for Friday, weaker than I wanted to see. Hopefully walkups pop a bit, but for now I’m forecasting about 225k, +40% daily and -47% weekly. That does mean more of the KOBIS PS are in SS again, so eyeing a better drop for Saturday.   
     

     

    -47% weekly

    :whosad:

    :bourne:

  5. 17 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

    I think that was the reasonable expectation. Still could happen tbh, if falls are a bit worse than typical for an Uber blockbuster in Japan. But I think at least ¥18B looks pretty solid right now.

    As long as China + Korea can cover the money drop in Japan, then its nice.

    The rest of Asia will join with Europe and Latin America for the job of increasing the OS gross over the first one. 

  6. From Corpse:

    For long-term predictions, such as earnings for next weekend, and the weekend after next, etc., be sure to follow this thread (and participate in discussion!). The Japanese box-office isn't one that can really be projected in the long-term for most releases, typically only annual franchise films that are released on the same weekend every year, so you'll have to wait and see. The Japanese box-office is like a long waiting game.

    As for Frozen II's possible final total... It's still too early to give an accurate number, but look for a finish that could approach ¥20 billion ($180 million) and 15 million admissions.

    Upcoming Holidays:
    The next holiday is New Year (Jan. 1st), and the subsequent bank holidays thereafter, resulting in what's simply known as "New Year Week". It's one of the three strongest weeks at the Japanese box-office, alongside "Golden Week" in late-April/early-May and "Obon Festival" in mid-August.

    Competition:
    The Japanese box-office isn't one where films really impact one another outside of competing for screens/showtimes, but even then it's pretty rare to see a noticeable impact outside of films competing for premium format showings (3D, 4D, IMAX, etc.). And with more theaters opening that include these formats, and older theaters being upgraded to support them, the competition for premium showings is also decreasing each year in the market. There's ample room (or ability, rather) at the Japanese box-office to support many big films at a time, despite potential audience overlap. In fact, you'll usually see the entire box-office thriving during weeks of heavy competition.

    Special Discount Days & Discounted Tickets:
    There are many, many ways to get discounted movie ticket prices in the market.

    For starters, female moviegoers always get 50% off every Wednesday, which is known as "Ladies' Day". As you can imagine, films with strong female support benefit greatly from this day. Plus females make up ~60% of the moviegoer audience in the market. And secondly, every 1st of the month is "National Discount Day". All the major theater chains offer tickets at 40% off nationwide, which significantly increases their business.

    In addition to those individual days, most chains offer a variety of ways to avoid paying the general admission fee. The major chains have one day of the week or month where their members receive discounted tickets. For example, Aeon Cinemas offer discounted tickets every Monday to their members; while Toho Cinemas offer discounted tickets every 20th of the month for their members.
    Aeon and Toho are the two largest chains in the country, making up close to 60% of all locations in the market.

    The order of biggest weekdays goes like this: Monday/Wednesday > Friday > Tuesday/Thursday.

    And finally, most theater chains offer discounted tickets to individuals if they meet a specific criteria. If you're a student, you'll receive a discount. If you're a senior, you'll receive a discount. If you're a couple, you'll receive a discount. Like to see movies after 8PM? You'll receive a discount. It's actually pretty difficult TO pay the general admission fee at most theater chains. The only demographic that is out of luck are males in the workplace that aren't of senior-age yet. Why? Well, simply, they're the group with the most money and most capable of paying full price.

    Theater Hours/Closure:
    Theaters never close in Japan, and those in Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures can operate close to 24 hours on the weekends (7/8AM-3/4AM). The majority of theaters nationwide open early with the first showings beginning at 7/8AM, but the theaters in and around Tokyo keep playing films up to midnight or later, and it's not surprising to see 2/3AM showtimes on the weekends.

    I hope this post answered most of your questions, but feel free to ask more of have me elaborate on anything above.
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  7. Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

    Evening was ever so slightly weaker than I thought, probably O/U 990k depending on CGV ratio. Should still be 2nd largest 2nd Sun ever.   Initial official estimates available in 40 minutes anyway.

    Anything bad sign for legs appeared yet???

  8. 5 minutes ago, Damien said:

    There are  6 Frozen 2 songs that are charting on Melon right now (including taeyeon's version) and both show yourself and Into the unknown are top 10. Some will drop out of top 100 till evening but still great performance.

    2 songs in top 10 melon. Wow

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