Molek
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Everything posted by Molek
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Haven't all Mondays been quite bad this summer with Tuesdays seeing huge jumps?
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There was one live action scene hidden in there
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Nah the audience really hates it remember! Even the "All Audience" is currently 5% higher (85%) than BatB (80%) and that's with more backlash. Verified is steady at 89% with 18k+ ratings. Legs are going to be great. Not expecting anywhere near Aladdin's 4x but anything over 3x should be good.
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I know, I'm talking about tracking initial expectations for what this could or should make, not "actual" tracking. Disney was clearly targeting 200 themselves with this wide release so their 150 expectation (or even below BatB) was always BS. Anyway 185-190 is a fuzzy line and I'd say it's still on par as a performance, just at the lower end of what people expected. Still an #event no matter what, and beating out Incredibles 2 is fantastic.
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I would call 190-210 "on par" for The Lion King, but 175-189 would be a slight underperformance and under BatB would've been a definite underperformance. I don't care if tracking said 150-170, Boxoffice tracking originally had it right at 200 with 180-230 range.
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2nd for non CBM/SW film I can see 600+ in the horizon with 1.5-1.7 total with appropriate legs, can end up #7 or #6 of all time
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I'll go with the middle of Asgard est and -19% Sun drop 78.5 62 50 190.5 2.8x = 533 2.9x = 552 3.0x = 572 3.1x = 591 3.2x = 610 3.3x = 629 3.4x = 648
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Roar Simba roar to the 200!
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BOT with 200.0 opening vs BOT with 199.9 opening
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I'm guessing Incredibles 2 wasn't an event despite opening to 180+ million as well
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It's going to sell nearly 20 million tickets in a single weekend, of course it's an event, especially for families. I'm guessing you didn't think BatB was an event either? Because this is on the same level. Not everything needs to have mega fanboy hype to be an event, it's still doing well.
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It's better to think that it will do the worst so we can have a nice surprise
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The spoiler-free (ish) nature of it could be deflating the OW which will in turn result in a higher multi, so I kind of agree. GA doesn't feel the need to rush out, and the 23M previews were inflated a bit by fandom rush. That's my guess anyway.
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8.0 internal multi at best? Seems pretty rough in all honesty. Looks like CoolEric was right with 8.5 being the high-end.
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Based on AUS/NZ numbers I was expecting this to be well into the 200s domestically. It does kind of look like OS is performing stronger than domestic right now? I mean BatB is getting crushed OS yet this will only be a bit above it domestically, and it performed somewhat similarly in those markets.
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Some conflicting info.. underperforming OW but better than expected CS (was expecting A- with previous data). Seems like 500 is practically locked, 600 is somewhat possible. Basically a little better than BatB...
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It's performing literally in the middle of early tracking (from months ago) currently, neither underperforming or overperforming lol. So no one can brag or throw shade here Edit: k nevermind
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If Endgame could tap into my market and other ones it would've had a 500+ OW and 1.5B total
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Somehow, Aladdin lost 1 more point on RT, down to 56%... 👀
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Problem is when expectations get over-inflated. If we thought 70m OD, people would've screamed underperformance, but 80 would suddenly look great. But with 90 OD, 80 looks just "ok" in comparison. Anyway, BOP tracking might come true with $201,000,000 months ago, interestingly enough. I think Disney will use their power to get it over the line
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A- CinemaScore instead of A might happen then? I'm guessing it's quite scary for children due to the photorealism.
