Inceptionzq
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Posts posted by Inceptionzq
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On 11/23/2019 at 3:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1623 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1668 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8255 74 22870 36.10% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1626 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1676 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8301 46 22870 36.30% 9 182 -
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34 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:
I am sure previews will be over $40 mil., from all comps I see maybe even from 44 to 46mil, if not more, but there are boxoffice masters we can ask
but I am SW optimist
what do you think?
@Porthos, @Thanos Legion, @keysersoze123, @InceptionzqWell this kind of tracking is new territory for me, so I’m not exactly sure how it will behave from here on out. I don’t think it will get close to doubling the ticket count from here on out, but let’s say it increases by 80%. That would give me a range of 37.8M-45M with some comps. Frozen 2 is the low end and TLK is the high end. And with the way Frozen 2 overperformed here, the low end is probably a low ball. So let’s say it’s actually 39M(which still might be a low ball). The median of the range is 42M. The average of the comps is 41.5M. So yeah, I think this is definitely clearing 40M. And personally I’m trusting TLK comp the most, which would give TLJ previews. I guess rn I’ll go with 41-47M for the range.
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8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
Can I do a club like Avengers Trilogy (ignorning Floptron) > Star Wars sequel Trilogy or it will come under fanwars? It will be sorta extension to @Porthos Civil War club.
Of course SW and Marvel fans aren't that bitter as DC and Marvel in my experience.
I don’t see why not. It’s essentially a TRoS O/U 600M club. And I don’t think there’s any like that rn. I don’t even see an O/U TLJ DOM club
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I’m kinda skeptical on it opening above TLJ, even if it matches or slightly beats TLJ’s Thursday previews. I think that the IM will be worse due to travel. So, travelers might opt to wait until the weekdays, especially Christmas, to go see it. But it could just end up being a little more backloaded with Friday and Saturday being slightly depressed, and Sunday being slightly boosted.
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1621 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1656 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8181 49 22870 35.77% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1623 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1668 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8255 74 22870 36.10% 9 182 -
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I echo captainwondyful about Knives Out. It is an A+ film. It will truly subvert your expectations.
Also my local theater decided to start doing movie trailer > ad > trailer > ad > trailer. I HATE it so much. Ruins the flow
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On 11/21/2019 at 3:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1615 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1650 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8132 55 22870 35.56% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1621 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1656 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8181 49 22870 35.77% 9 182 -
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19 minutes ago, HeadShot said:
It has to drop below 70% since it’s already certified
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5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
2014-02-07 Lego Movie Friday 0.40/ 17.1/ 69.1/ 172.6x
Obviously the best comp. 1.7B OW incoming
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On 11/20/2019 at 3:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 392 1798 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 497 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2391 323 13675 17.48% 9 97 Showings added: 19
Seats added: 1183
Lion King comp: 10.76M
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 556 1798 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 640 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 3502 1111 13910 25.18% 9 101 Lion King comp: 10.62M
Abominable comp: 9.77M
Addams Family comp: 10.16M
Maleficent comp: 9.93M
Because TLK was during the Summer, it probably makes sense to eliminate that comp and focus more on the other 3. Using the average of those, I get 9.95M. The late walkups for this will probably be slightly better than Abominable and Maleficent, but not Addams Family since that started at 4. So, I'll go with 10.1M
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Part A:
1. Will Frozen to more than $120M? 1000 Yes
2. Will Frozen Open to more than $150M? 2000 No
3. Will Frozen Open to more than $135M? 3000 Yes
4. Will Frozen increase on Saturday? 4000 Yes
5. Will Frozen make more than 75% of the total gross of the top 5 movies of the weekend? 5000 No
6. Will Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood open to more than $13M? 1000 Yes
7. Will Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood open to more than $16M? 2000 Yes
8. Will 21 Bridges open to more than $6M? 3000 Yes
9. Will 21 Bridges open to more than $9M? 4000 Yes
10. Beautiful day open to more than double 21 Bridges? 5000 No
11. Will Beautiful Day open in 2nd place? 1000 No
12. Will Ford vs Ferrari drop less than 50%? 2000 Yes
13. Will Dark Water Open above Charlie's Angels? 3000 No
14. Will Midway stay in the top 5? 4000 No
15. Will Playing with Fire stay in the top 5? 5000 Yes
16. Will Ford vs Ferrari's Domestic Total overtakeTerminator's by the end of Sunday? 1000 Yes
17. Will Charlie's Angels have the worst PTA in the top 10? 2000 Yes
18. Will Maleficent stay above Harriet? 3000 Yes
19. How many films will make more than $4M this weekend? 4000 Six
20. Will this weekend get back to normal, or is Frozen opening to $52,5M million because cinema is dead? 5000 Yes
Part B:
1. What will Frozen make for its 3 day OW? $146,730,000
2. What will Last Cheristmas's Sunday gross be? $935,000
3. What will Joker's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $2460
Part 😄
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
2. Ford v Ferrari
4. 21 Bridges
5. Playing with Fire
7. Last Christmas
9. Charlie's Angels
11. Maleficent
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1615 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1638 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8077 61 22870 35.32% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1615 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1650 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8132 55 22870 35.56% 9 182 -
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23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
40m OW for jumanji 2 would be a disaster. irrespective of holidays its 2nd weekend drop wont be pretty as SW9 will have a mega release taking away all the big screens. Great run after that will only take it to 150m domestic. So it needs to open 70m to have a reasonable domestic run. Let us see how PS goes.
That’s a low multiplier for this imo. Should at least be 4.5-5x
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29 minutes ago, PKMLover said:
Can it open to 150?
It definitely can, and I think it will. The presales data seems to support that, but that could change.
Menor laid it out pretty well
4 hours ago, Menor said:OD presales should finish in 15-17 million range using conservative estimates for ATP and extrapolation, following I2 or TS4 that will be 45-51 while following TLK that would be 34-39 million OD. I don't think this will be as PS heavy as TLK which played like an MCU film. So a conservative pure OD shall be ~40 million.
Sat PS should end up in 20+ range, should be 56 million+. Then 30% sun drop to 40 million range again. So conservatively I would say the OW should at least get in the 140-150 million range, with a good chance to shoot far higher if walkups and late PS are strong.
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6 minutes ago, PKMLover said:
from boxofficepro
*boxofficereport
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 352 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 432 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2068 187 12492 16.55% 9 78 Showings added: 9
Seats added: 614
Lion King comp: 10.89M
Barely an increase in tickets sold from yesterday. Presumably because there's not enough good seats from 6-7:30ish to meet demand. Highlands Ranch just added a bunch of showings which should help out a lot tomorrow. And other theaters should be adding more sometime today or tomorrow. So, we'll see if that gives a big boost to tickets sold.
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 392 1798 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 497 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2391 323 13675 17.48% 9 97 Showings added: 19
Seats added: 1183
Lion King comp: 10.76M
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1611 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1631 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8016 57 22870 35.05% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1615 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1638 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8077 61 22870 35.32% 9 182 -
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On 11/18/2019 at 3:41 PM, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 342 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 402 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1881 175 11878 15.84% 9 69 Lion King comp: 11.54M
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 352 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 432 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2068 187 12492 16.55% 9 78 Showings added: 9
Seats added: 614
Lion King comp: 10.89M
Barely an increase in tickets sold from yesterday. Presumably because there's not enough good seats from 6-7:30ish to meet demand. Highlands Ranch just added a bunch of showings which should help out a lot tomorrow. And other theaters should be adding more sometime today or tomorrow. So, we'll see if that gives a big boost to tickets sold.
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On 11/18/2019 at 3:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1596 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1631 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7959 36 22870 34.80% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1611 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1631 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8016 57 22870 35.05% 9 182 -
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 333 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 377 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1706 162 11878 14.36% 9 69 Lion King comp: 11.78M
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 342 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 402 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1881 175 11878 15.84% 9 69 Lion King comp: 11.54M
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1592 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1624 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7923 35 22870 34.64% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1596 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1631 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7959 36 22870 34.80% 9 182 -
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On 11/16/2019 at 3:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 315 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 340 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1544 146 11878 13.00% 9 69 Showings added: 3
Seats added: 488
Lion King comp: 11.59M
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 333 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 377 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1706 162 11878 14.36% 9 69 Lion King comp: 11.78M
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On 11/16/2019 at 3:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1587 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1620 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7888 53 22870 34.49% 9 182 The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1592 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1624 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7923 35 22870 34.64% 9 182 -
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
AMC Highlands Ranch 24