Inceptionzq
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Posts posted by Inceptionzq
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On 11/8/2019 at 4:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:
Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 18 434 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 36 738 SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST WEEK TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 74 49 3107 2.38% 8 19 Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.6M
Can't adjust for other comps I wanna use, so I'll just have Terminator for the time being
Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 29 434 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 42 738 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 105 31 3107 3.38% 8 19 Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.74M
Adjusted Ad Astra comp: 1.89M
Adjusted Rambo comp: 1.84M
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On 11/8/2019 at 3:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 208 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 185 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 958 81 9539 10.04% 9 55 Adjusted Lion King comp: 11.94M
Interesting that Highlands Ranch sold zero tickets the past 24 hours. Still a great day overall, and the Lion King comp is looking good.
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 215 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 207 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1022 64 10169 10.05% 9 59 Showings added: 4
Seats added: 630
Adjusted Lion King comp: 13.12M
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On 11/8/2019 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1543 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1599 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7614 48 22870 33.29% 9 182 Passed The Lion King's final total
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1555 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1601 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7647 33 22870 33.44% 9 182 -
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Utah Jazz to the finals
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8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
It should do at the least 2.8*5.6+1.5=17M. Basically what Deadline was saying. Room for better IM over the weekend of course.
Why 2.8*5.6?
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Wow Doctor Sleep just keeps nosediving. Will it even hit 13M with that number?
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Ouch, 1.5M including Oct 30? Seems to really overperformed in Denver. But I just realized that The Shining being set in Colorado probably caused this overperformance.
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Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 18 434 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 36 738 SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST WEEK TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 74 49 3107 2.38% 8 19 Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.6M
Can't adjust for other comps I wanna use, so I'll just have Terminator for the time being
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 177 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 185 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 877 95 9539 9.19% 9 55 I didn't do a count for TLK on the equivalent day, so no comp.
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 208 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 185 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 958 81 9539 10.04% 9 55 Adjusted Lion King comp: 11.94M
Interesting that Highlands Ranch sold zero tickets the past 24 hours. Still a great day overall, and the Lion King comp is looking good.
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1540 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1594 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7566 54 22870 33.08% 9 182 Only 21 tickets behind The Lion King's final total
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1543 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1599 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7614 48 22870 33.29% 9 182 Passed The Lion King's final total
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1. Will Dr. Sleep make more than $22M? 1000 Yes
2. Will Dr. Sleep make more than $30M? 2000 No
3. Will Dr. Sleep make more than $26M? 3000 No
4. Will Dr. Sleep make more than double Midway's total?4000 Yes
5. Will Terminator remain in the top 3? 5000 Yes
6. Will Last Christmas make more than $15M? 1000 Yes
7. Will Last Christmas make more than $20M? 2000 No
8. Will Dr Sleep's make enough to win the weekend from just Friday and Saturday? 3000 Yes
9. Will Playing with Fire make more than $10M? 4000 No
10. Will Mr. Toilet have a PTA above $5,000? 5000
11. Will Parasite stay above Jojo Rabbit? 1000 No
12. Will Zombieland drop more than 40%? 2000 Yes
13. Will Maleficent stay above Harriet? 3000 Yes
14. Will Addams Family have a bigger percentage drop than Joker? 4000 Yes
15. Will the Angry Birds movie crossover into Star Wars? 5000 Yes
Part B:
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points
2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points
1. What will Dr. Sleep's OW be? $24,667,324
2. What will Black and Blue's percentage drop be? 53%
3. What will be the difference in dollars between Last Christmas and Midway's OW totals? $3,475,235
Part 😄
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
3. Terminator
5. Joker
7. Harriet
9. Addams Family
10. Zombieland
12. Countdown
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PART A:
1. Dr Sleep $87.5M Abstain
2. Midway $45M Too High
3. Charlie's Angels $67.5M Too High
4. The Good Liar $37.5M Too Low
5. 21 Bridges $37.5M Too High
6. Queen and Slim $30M Too Low
7. Playmobil $15M Abstain
8. Cats $90M Abstain
9. Bombshell $37.5M Abstain
10. Black Christmas $33M Too Low
PART B:
Here are 10 questions:
1. Which film (excluding Playmobil) will be the lowest grossing? Black Christmas
2. Which film will be the highest grossing without making more than $75M? Charlie's Angels
3. Will exactly two films make the Domestic top 15? Yes
4. Will any film double its predicted gross? No
5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? No
6. Will the actual combined total gross for the films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? Higher
7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? Doctor Sleep
8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? 21 Bridges
9. Will 2 or more films open in the number 1 position? No
10. Will 3 or more of these films open in 4th or lower? Yes
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On 11/6/2019 at 3:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:
Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 83 780 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 73 539 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 283 76 5421 5.22% 9 32 Showings added: 2
Seats added: 434
Zombieland 2 comp: 1.76M
Gemini Man comp: 2.46M
Terminator comp: 2M
Adjusted IT 2 comp: 1.14M
Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 150 780 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 134 539 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 642 359 5421 11.84% 9 32 Zombieland 2 comp: 1.33M
Gemini Man comp: 1.91M
Terminator comp: 1.61M
IT 2 comp: 1.74M
I don't think Zombieland is a good comp. It seemed to have really bad walkups after previews started, or just severely overperformed here. But it crashed down to earth compared to Gemini Man and Terminator. I see this coming in on the lower end of the 1.61-1.91M range. Don't think the late walkups will be worse than Terminator because of Halloween. So, I'll go with 1.65M for today. And overall previews of 2.5M.
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 152 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 161 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 782 151 9539 8.20% 9 55 Adjusted Lion King comp: 9.87M
Barely decreased from yesterday, so the comp turned out better than I thought it would. Nowhere to go but up from here
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 177 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 185 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 877 95 9539 9.19% 9 55 I didn't do a count for TLK on the equivalent day, so no comp.
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1529 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1590 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7512 56 22870 32.85% 9 182 99% of The Lion King's final total
(Thanks for buying half of these tickets last night, @Porthos 😉)
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1540 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1594 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7566 54 22870 33.08% 9 182 Only 21 tickets behind The Lion King's final total
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43 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:
So do you think that Fandango’s report is incorrect?
He’s not saying the report is incorrect. He’s showing that even though Frozen has an advantage with presales because of Thanksgiving in America, he doesn’t think that’s the explanation of why it’s breaking records. It’s just doing very well overall.
And just btw, Fandango is the biggest movie ticket service in America. Their reports are from their data.
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33 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:
The comps are getting better at least.
Does this include fandango screenings?
I should add, the IT 2 comp was the day when my most popular theater was down. So I had to adjust for that, and with smaller movies, like Doctor Sleep, that theater has a larger share of overall tickets. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if in reality that comp is at least 1.3M.
This doesn’t include the Fandango screenings. I posted a few days ago detailing about how I think the range for those is 800K-1M. Probably at the lower end though. But it’s really hard to predict those with the limited data, so take it with an extra grain of salt.
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 105 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 139 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 631 165 9539 6.61% 9 55 Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 152 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 161 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 782 151 9539 8.20% 9 55 Adjusted Lion King comp: 9.87M
Barely decreased from yesterday, so the comp turned out better than I thought it would. Nowhere to go but up from here
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 63 346 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 50 539 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 207 52 4987 4.15% 9 30 Showings added: 8
Seats added: 1491
Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.42M
Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.7M
IT 2 comp: 1.13M
Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 83 780 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 73 539 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 283 76 5421 5.22% 9 32 Showings added: 2
Seats added: 434
Zombieland 2 comp: 1.76M
Gemini Man comp: 2.46M
Terminator comp: 2M
Adjusted IT 2 comp: 1.14M
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1527 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1588 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7456 52 22870 32.60% 9 182 Over 98% of The Lion King's final total.
The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver
AMC Westminster 24
Total 1529 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24
Total 1590 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7512 56 22870 32.85% 9 182 99% of The Lion King's final total
(Thanks for buying half of these tickets last night, @Porthos 😉)
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22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
This must be it, but I still don't really see the connection. Do some people get work/school off on election days?
I think it’s because some schools that serve as polling locations choose to have the day off so it’s not too crazy. Then a lot of parents probably take the day off along with their kids
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12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
What the absolute fuck!?!?!?!?
Over TLK's first week!? It was only 5 months ago that that opened to 190M.
It’s mind boggling. But I’m thinking that Toy Story 4 being out for only a couple days, and FFH right around the corner could’ve taken attention away from TLK. Frozen 2 has no obstacles that will draw attention away from it.
6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:This just doesn't match with what we've been seeing for Thursday. Until I hear an argument otherwise I'm assuming that F2's fans just don't see a huge need to see it in the first couple hours possible, and it may turn in some (relatively) medium previews but with a very strong IM and days 4-10.
Yeah I think the IM will be very strong. I did a quick check of the Saturday fan events, and there’s 352 sold between 3 theaters. Over half of Thursday’s overall sales as of yesterday. Haven’t bothered to check how all of Friday and Saturday is doing, but I may do that to see if it’s blowing previews out of the water here too.
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6 minutes ago, StarWarsMemer said:
For a single theater or?
For Fandango
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Not 100% sure, but I don’t think this movie will be preview heavy. I’d say low 20s looks safe right now.