AlexMA

Here's your answer: Coming to digital tonight, Disney+ in April 3rd. They don't know when box office will reopen and by then it will be too late. So might as well get some new content on Disney+ from it.

Loved the trailer, have a good feeling about this one. Looking like it could be Warner's 5th $1+ billion DC movie (TDK, TDKR, Aquadude and of course Joker being the previous three). Once they stopped trying to fit them all together the DC universe thingy has become a lot better which in turn greatly improved their box office. With this they'll have 3 of their last 4 DC movies over $1 billion, which is getting into Marvel territory of box office consistency. Nope, wait, forgot about Birds of Prey, that definitely won't do $1 billion (although I'd like to be proven wrong), so it will be 3 of the last 5. Sure it's not as good as 3 out of 4 but still a major improvement over the start of this whole thing where they barely got the frigging Justice League to $650 million worldwide.

That's good for Spider-Man, even with Homecoming, and if it can stay level from here on out it could still crack $400 million (if it does exactly like Homecoming from this point on it will finish with $400.7 million, so seriously cutting it close there). It all comes down to next weekend and how much of an impact H&S will have on it. But seriously, it needs to stay at least even from now on, and if it doesn't the $400 million dream is over.

Before this decade you could count the 1 billion earners on one hand (Titanic made it there in 1998, Return of the King, Dead Man's Chest, The Dark Knight and Avatar got there in 2003, 2006, 2008 and 2009). Now we don't have anywhere near enough extremities to get up to the 41 we currently have, and that number will grow to at least 45 by the end of the year.

This is very important to keep in mind, as they can't really charge in India what they can charge in most other countries. So what do you think they'll charge in India when it gets there in 2020? Netflix are doing the $3 a month mobile only plan specifically for India, will Disney try to match that? With the cricket matches I think they could potentially ask for more, but also that would likely cut into the total number of subscribers they can get. So it ends up being a question of volume and do they want to serve a bigger audience but get less from them, or do they think they can charge a premium and get away with it without losing too many million potential subscribers.

So basically Disney will end up with over $10 billion worldwide in 2019 from just 10 releases (one of which was a documentary, by the way, and we're also not counting the Fox stuff). It will be a long time before another studio (even Disney) ever match this year.

It's another metric for viewer satisfaction, which can then lead to good or not so good word of mouth. The higher that score, the more likely that person is to recommend the movie to his friends, thus better legs for the film in question.

This right here, they've only committed to 2 seasons so only about half a billion would go down the drain if they pulled the plug early because maybe it sucks or something. Sure, it wouldn't be a 1 billion flop, but it's not like half a billion is pocket change, even for Amazon.

Well close to a third of the money goes to the Tolkien estate, so that's that, and the rest would be the budget for at least 4-5 seasons, which all things considered isn't THAT unrealistic when you think about what they're creating. And if it's a hit and they make even more seasons, oh it will go way past $1 billion. The $1 billion was a given since the start, when reports came that they'd spend over half a billion for the first two seasons alone (about 300 million went to the Tolkien estate for the rights). It will probably take at least 4 or 5 seasons (if not more) and who knows how many years for Amazon to even consider this a profitable endeavor. And that's only if it's actually good. The pressure on J. A. Bayona is going to be insane, would certainly not want to be that guy, potentially behind one of the most expensive flops in the history of entertainment. Would certainly dwarf anything Hollywood has ever done.

You're saying that like those two aren't some of the leggiest movies of the summer. Aladdin might end up with a 4 multi, despite opening on Memorial Day weekend while Toy Story 4 is looking to at least match Toy Story 3's multi. The Lion King will finish with around a 3, which is certainly nothing to cry about for a movie that opened to $191.8 million. Yes, it will be above a 50% drop, but that's what most realistically expected anyway.

This should become Tarantino's highest grossing movie yet, both in North America and worldwide. I've heard 50 OW, 200 DOM and I agree.

That's what I was thinking, it might already be there, either got there yesterday or today. And with Lion King and Toy Story 4 following very soon (the first obviously quite a bit sooner) that's 5 out of their 7 total 2019 releases over $1 billion worldwide. Not gonna check, but I'm pretty sure that's a record. Oh and one of the two that won't make it to $1 billion is a documentary (Penguins) while the other is Dumbo. They have THREE, yes, that's right, just 3 more movies left to release this year, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Two of those are guaranteed to also score over $1 billion worldwide, so that will be 7 out of 10 releases over $1 billion each. As for the other, well unless Maleficent 2 is some kind of masterpiece with incredible WoM you know that's doing Dumbo numbers. Mickey Mouse is pretty much DESTROYING the competition this year at the box office with just 10 things they're putting out in theaters, that's half or even less than the competition while making probably twice as much from ticket sales. How the hell did we get here?

Well based on those numbers I can definitely tell you it's not going to do the numbers Deadline was pitching a couple days ago (90+). Was hoping for 85 this weekend but I was also ready for 75, it is what it is, it will make the difference with weekdays. Next week will give us a much better picture regarding Lion King's legs. Toy Story 4 still over Toy Story 3 and Far From Home still just below Homecoming (but not by much) and Endgame, no idea what that's all about but I'm pretty certain Disney are going for that sweet round 2.8er. Oh and Aladdin being Aladdin once again. Did it make it already to 1 billion or is it this weekend? It's possible it could have made it yesterday, but it could also just as well be today. I wasn't ready many trades yesterday and today, anyone have any idea if it did it? (I know Spider-Man did it, that one I got as it was everywhere)

Oh he is DEFINITELY in it in some capacity, but personally I'd stick to Patton Oswalt for Remy. I know who would have been perfect as the food critic, but sadly he isn't with us anymore (Alan Rickman).

You know what would actually work as a live-action remake but will never happen for obvious reasons? That dude in my user icon, of course. Why would it be perfect? Look at how popular cooking shows are right now, this is just a great story that could tap into all of that. Why it will never happen? Because who the HELL wants to see an accurately rendered RAT cooking food for people in a real kitchen. Rat and kitchen really don't go together at all. It worked as an animation because kids don't really care and it was much easier to get over the whole rat in kitchen issue because he didn't actually look like a real rat. But at some point in a couple years Disney will run out of animated classics to turn live-action, so you know they'll start looking at Pixar's library, so if we ever do get a live-action Ratatouille (like 1% chance of it happening, realistically), I would certainly want to see what that looks like (as long as they don't turn Remy into Stuart Little, of course).

19-18 for Wednesday and 18-17 for Thursday sounds about right, which would lead into a most likely 80-85 million weekend, outside chance at 90 with a big Saturday bump and smaller than usual Sunday drop (which is slowly turning into the norm).

There's even a chance it ends up having a better multiplier than Toy Story 3, which I don't think anyone saw coming. For that it would need over $455 million in North America, which obviously won't be easy, but also far from impossible at this point, with the daily numbers it has showed so far.

You know, and I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but this 30 million Tuesday sure is awesome and makes Deadline's 95 million 2nd weekend prediction seem not as crazy as it did a day ago. Either way with this I think the weekend moved from 75-85 to 85-95 and I don't know about some of you but I'm very happy about that. Also Toy Story 4 really just amazing legs, keeps improving its lead over TS3 and Charlie's 455 number might actually end up happening. Oh and Far From Home beat Homecoming, which is great, but I think come Wednesday it will fall back behind, so 400 million might still be too tough an ask from this sequel. Aladdin just doing Aladdin things at this point, and if it keeps this madness up we might need to start talking about even catching up to The Jungle Book, which is just nuts considering where it all started.

According to Mojo Captain Marvel closed on the 4th of July and since Spider-Man opened on July 2nd, you are technically right, for 2 days Samuel L. Jackson had 3 movies in theaters that either made it over $1 billion or would in the near future.\ But I'll do you one better, he didn't have a weekend with those three, Favreau did, actually all three were within the top 11 for this past weekend in North America. Also by the time Endgame is out of theaters The Lion King will be well over $1 billion, so Jon will have multiple weekends with 3 of his movies all over $1 billion at the same time. Top that Mr. Jackson, top that! No but seriously, that's crazy for both, especially in Jon Favreau's case.

Oh don't get me wrong, I wrote 25 but I'm hoping for 28, and just imagine if it actually gets to 30. Notice no one is talking about 30, but secretly you know more than a couple here are thinking about it as a possibility for this movie. Edit: Also imagine if Favreau had a credit on Aladdin too, would have had 4 movies over 1 billion at the same time in theaters instead of "only" a puny 3. Also pretty sure that has to be a record, right? I don't think anyone has ever had 3 movies over 1 billion each at the same time in theaters.

That's the absolute worst case scenario, of course I'm hoping for 85+ too but I'm trying to stay level headed so it doesn't turn into a disappointment (for me) if it falls short of those lofty expectations. The 75 is in case Thursday drops to something like 15, which I doubt will happen, but I'm keeping my ranges open for now. Will close them down going forward, after this week, as more data comes into play.

If it keeps this up sure, right now $430 million is the absolute minimum if it stays with TS3, but if it continues to grow its lead $450 could be well within its grasp. By the end of Tuesday Toy Story 4's lead will increase to over $14 million through the same point, and Toy Story 3 finished with $415 million. So yeah, it's getting 430-440 with an outside chance at 450. But also we can't forget Toy Story 3 got a late push that got it past what many thought it could do at that point, and while Toy Story 4 might get a similar treatment, for now it's just an assumption, so we're not really dealing exactly with an apples to apples comp here. That push wasn't a huge deal, maybe $5 million extra than what it would have done without it, but it can mess with calculations towards the end there.

I expected 55% off for Lion King, we got 60, not bad by any stretch, as it will most likely go to 25 today, maybe 18 Wednesday, 17 Thursday (that would be the high-end), which would put it on track for $75-85 million or so 2nd weekend, so it is what it is. With that Monday for Far From Home I think we have to start accepting that $400 million is slowly turning into a pipe dream, so we'll probably have to settle for around $380-390 million, making this the 2nd highest grossing Spider-Man movie in North America. And of course it's already number 1 worldwide, so it all evens out. Toy Story 4 is again over Toy Story 3 so we're getting pretty damn close to locking down TS4 finishing over TS3 domestically, if it's not already there (maybe I'm just too conservative). Yeah, I think it's already there, looking at $430+ million in North America, which is probably more than many expected a week before it came out. Another Disney movie showing great legs, by now this shouldn't surprise us (especially coming from Pixar's track record). Aladdin is getting to $350 million, and yes that has been a certainty for some time now but I'm still not going to stop saying it because it's just so damn incredible. From maybe it gets to 200 million to oh it will certainly get to 250, 275, 290, 300?, 320??, 340???, what in going on here... 350???? Yeah, that was fun to watch these last two months. And lastly I'm pretty sure if they still have enough in the tank Disney might try to get Endgame to $2.8 billion.

Amazing example, and you are right, The LEGO Movie is considered an animated movie and when it comes to records is ranked among animations, despite having a considerably amount of live-action scenes in it (I have no idea what the live-action part of The Lion King is but I'm fairly positive it's nowhere near LEGO's in terms of runtime). So yeah, I call studio shenanigans on all of this. The Lion King is much more an animated movie than say The LEGO Movie, so it should be considered that for record purposes.

Was there? Then I guess it counts as live-action, but that's such a technicality, I bet they only did it so they can be out of the 100% animation circles. Whatever, so which one was it, if it's not a spoiler, thanks.