Danilo018

I did a sort of a little data analysis about 1h ago. I clicked on the random over Fandango AMC theaters to check how Endgame fairs in ticket(s) reservation numbers. I was checking AMC theaters in Los Angeles, Dallas, Boston, New York, San Francisko, Miami, random small cities... I've checked about 15 theaters maybe even 20(so a random sampling of about15-20). I was doing that over my phone. But I tried to have 50:50 relation between major cities and small ones(towns) . About let's say 70% of theaters happend to have Endgame projection and screens were ranging from smaller one to really big ones. But they were almost always more than half full. In other words for majority of screen more than half of the seats was already reserved. Smaller screens were basically already full. To repeat myself again, this wasn't an in-depth analysis I basicly did it on foot without any paper 🙂 . Compared to similar time screening of Aladdin, Child's Play, Man In Black (who by the way all have over 3000+ screens) Endgame absolutely wastes them in amount of seats already reserved. I will be bold enough and say Endgame will outgross them(for MIB is obvious, Aladddin might not be 100% sure if I want to be conservative). Also considering Anabelle was projected for 30-35 millions 5-days gross (Wed-Sun) and it already did 7+ million on Wednesday(including Tuesday priview) should be similar on Thurdsday which should result in 14-20 millions weekend for Anabelle without Wednesday and Thursday . Given the above being bold 🙂 I say that Endgame is sure to finish 3rd for the Weekend and might even finish 2nd depending on Anabelle's performance and of course it's own. Also I don't think that number of people attending it today and Sat and Sun will increase dramaticlly from the amount of people who already reserved their seats, but I hope so 🙂 . I don't want to bombard you with calcs again but with the quick calc I did Endgame should do around 15 million for the weekned given the current trend. I certanly hope for the higher number, to be honest 🙂 . Given the data I've seen 10+ weekend is locked(and I'll be bold enough to state it without furthere in depth analysis 🙂 ) . If I did more in depth analysis I could come up with more precise number, but I won't bother with that. I also want to be surprised 🙂 . Still for the WW crown at least 25+ million weekend should happen and that's if we talk about photo finish. Nevertheless I still hope for the 30+ global 🙂 , so that we could have some difference, at least marginal one. But this 30+ now seems unlikely since not all markets(and major one like Brazil) will have the expansion from today or this weekend.

Yea, that's another possibility.

It will have IMAX projections in Russia. I don't see a reason why it won't have in US then. It appears based on recent data that I wasn't going ballistic with my projection at all 🙂 . I see that this guy Scott Mendelson was using data (extensively) from this thread 🙂 . It's kind of too much of coincidence, since this thread was basically the only place on internet where you could find such projections and mentioning of the "first run WW crown" . Not that I have anything against it . It's very welcoming that a major and extremely important institution such as Forbes has recognised this achievement of Endgame which got largely unnoticed over the web(like there is some conspiracy created by James Cameroon 🙂 ) and many sites like Screen Rant don't even mention that Avatar's WW gross is due to a re-release. So not to sound like douchebag, I thank Mr. Mendelson very much, but he should at least mentioned his source in my opinion. Anyway maybe he has an account here 🙂 or I'm simply being absolutely wrong about this theory of mine 🙂 . That's very nice.

Let's round up those 1950+ screens to 2000 for easier calc. Now not all of those 2000 screens will be equal in size, as we all know. Some will be small other big, third average ... As far as internet info goes average number of seats in US screens is 225 . I've found info that some multiplexes have screens with over 400 seats. And by seeing US theaters program, Endgame can still be seen 2 times per day in large(est) auditorium in multiplexes and theaters. Correct me if I'm (absolutely) wrong on any data. Anyway let's continue Given all of that let's make assumption that the average attendance will be 300 (lower end) to 400 (higher end) people per screen(average screen has 225 seats in US and I'm fully aware about small screen, but as far as I have seen they are in minority and large to very large screens can have 2 times per day showing of Endgame) . And for the calc I will use average theater price in US of 9.01$ per Mojo for lower end and average price of 13$(when I was checking, tickets for Endgame were in range of 11-16$) for higher end. Also I'll use rounded 2.27 multiplier for weekend. I'm assuming the exact same performance like opening weekend(Friday was 157mil and total was 357mil; 357:157=2.27) Let's do the math. 2000x300x9.01x2.27 = 12 271 620 2000x300x13x2.27 = 17 706 000 Higher end 2000x400x9.01x2.27 = 16 362 160 2000x400x13x2.27 = 23 608 000 So going by my calc absolutely safe bet is 12 271 620 - 23 608 000$ . Note that average price for Endgame will be 13$ and probably more (when Imax is included) but average theater price of 9.01 for 2019 per Mojo would compensate for underperformance. When adding some common sense also, this can't go lower than 10 million for 28-30th weekend in US and in my opinion it's safe to say this is doing at least 20 milion. As I mentioned before I'm seeing opposite performance for 28-30th June than OS:US=70:30 in other words for 28-30th my opinion is that US will contribute with 70% of total gross. Summa summarum of 10mil and 20mil US performance is 14mil WW and 28mil WW. Going by the current trend by Thurday Endgame will be around 2.752b so gross on 1st of July should be in range of 2.766b-2.780b . And I'm leaning closer to 2.780b. In my optimistic scenario I see 2.780b+ or to be more precise close Avatar's gross 🙂 . If this extension only had some Phase 4 revelation 🙂 ....

A beacon of hope 🙂 !!! I'm becoming an optimist again 🙂 .

Well this will severely impact the performance in a bad way. My projection is now basically a fanboy's dream. With only this added content there is zero chance that this will touch 30 millions for the weekend of 28-30th in US if they don't increase the number of theaters dramatically(at very least over 2000) and said theaters have several hundred people per day attending . With current situation (985 screens) absolute theoretical max in US is around 15 millions for the weekend. We can only hope that fans might go to see it several days after 30th June out of emotions (because of the deleted scene which might feature Tony Stark seeing his daughter) . But given the above dethroning Avatar isn't a done deal and is more likely to miss it by 5+ millions ... Damn it and I was projection some insane numbers 🙂 . Anyway hope dies the last 🙂 . Anyway, when I think about it, what the hell was I thinking 🙂 . Endgame wasn't supposed to have any mid credit and after credits content. And it's not like they can film it out of sudden in several days. Fact that slipped through my mind is that, even Disney wasn't expecting this to come so close to Avatar, in other words this expansion is decision made in a haste, cause opportunity for claiming the WW throne presented itself. And I totally haven't thought about that. Actually Disney made and excellent job. They first created a hype and were ambiguous about the content of this expansion, to attract as many as possible hardcore fanboys tickets pre-orders for 28-30th June . Than were slowly revealing what will this be about. So they couldn't done it better and didn't have a better time than the date above. And I ignored those simple facts and came up with locked bold 30+ millions 🙂 . Well I correct myself. My absolutely hardcore optimistic projection would be around 15 million weekend in US and more realistic(still leaning towards optimism 🙂 ) around 9 millions . And that's in case 985 screens stays, which seems at present. But I still hope for some major increase in screen numbers and 30+ millions US weekend 🙂 . C'mon Feige you can do it 🙂 !

In my opinion all of you are underestimating the performance that Endgame will achieve on next weekend. What I mean is that you're overlooking one important fact. This is not you're regular expansion . Post credit scenes in MCU movies were/are almost as important as the movies itself, sometimes they were even more important actually. The concept of "post credit scenes" is something unique to Marvel and we can't compare directly the achievement of other movies which had expansion or re-release( not counting old movies like Gone With The Wind, Snow white...) to the potential achievement Endgame will have. Endgame is actually the first MCU movie to have expansion. So this is uncharted territory by all means. And I firmly believe post credit scenes will prove to be a major factor when it comes to money earnings next weekend. Many MCU fans are desperate to know something considering the Phase 4 and there is high possibility that we will have the revelation for Phase 4 will come with this expansion. So we will have something new and important for the future MCU entries . Unlike for example Avatar: Special Edition which had something new and absolutely unimportant for the future of franchise(at that time we didn't even know if there are going to be any sequels). In other words MCU fans will be in the mood "I must go to see this, cause they might reveal next major villain (like Kang, Galactus etc...) or show some new important characters(Fantastic 4, X-men, Adam Warlock...)" compared to the mood regular moviegoer had when he/she went to see Avatar:Special edition(for example) and their mood was more like "Ok I don't have anything better to do, so let's go to see how this Special edition differs(what content was added) from regular" . So that's important thing which is overlooked. Summa summarum every MCU fan is eager to know what will this be about and earliest he can find out is the June of 28th. Compared to that is that some of the fans of past movies which had been re-released or had and expansion were interested to see re-released version or expansion . Like I said this has potential to be absolutely massive on the next weekend. That of course depends on two factors. First is number of theaters that will have this expansion and second is the quality of marketing to create the hype(to be honest hype was already creted with tons of videos and fan theories considering the future of MCU and for the first time in movie history I think, many fans were basicly demanding and expansion or re-release with added material). Call me crazy but with those two factors at their best, in theory we can have even opening weekend numbers . Also to repeat myself, US is the key factor this time, since majority of money will come from US. And from 1st July we will see a sharp drop compared to weekend of 28-30th June. Considering the weekend of 28-30th, Friday will have the greatest gross, followed by Saturday and Sunday. So exactly the same like on the first weekend, since this would be a premier, sort off. Last but not the least i don't see this expansion going less than 30 millions in US alone for the weekend of 28-30th June. Considering the above factors that seems logical to me. I'll be even bolder and say that Endgame is topping Avatar's WW on 30th June . My projection is 35+ millions US weekend and after that a major drop on 1st July coming down to last week numbers or even lower, but then if we have some important revelation than drop might be less harsh. Another option is stronger legs for the above 30 million more total thanks to expansion (less impressive weekend but strong legs in the next week with increased Mon-Sun grosses compared to last week) . Anyway if I prove wrong than I'm absolutely willing to accept the bashing and fact that I will need to learn more about box office projection 🙂 .

Is the bolded part official ? To make it more precise, do we have an official statement that it's post credits scene to promote FFH ? I'm asking this cause I've red the opposite. Text below is simply me expressing my opinion and predictions and not adressed to you(to prevent any confusion who am I adressing 🙂 ). Now to express my opinion about this expansion. Let's be realistic here, this expansion will be most successful in US. I'm willing to bet that it would be opposite of WW total 30%(US):70%(rest of the world) with vast majority of money coming from US . By the way I don't think that this expansion will be worldwide. Only major markets like Brazil, UK, South Korea will have it. Evidence for this so far is the fact that my country Serbia won't have the expansion. Things might change during the week, but I'm not optimistic. Media mentioned that Endgame will have an expansion, but so far no news about expansion here. Also important thing to note is the fact that this will be a one weekend boost, at best we could see some week to week growth (fro example growth on 1st July compared to 24th June). So good marketing in the upcoming days will be crucial. Cause depending on the quality marketing we might get weekend gross which will bring Endgame slightly below Avatar to some absolutely astonishing and ridiculous numbers. And by ridiculous I mean truly ridiculous 🙂 . Somebody mentioned here 3b again, theoretically it might happen 🙂 . But for that to have even 0.00000000000001% of a chance number of theaters in which it will have projection must increase to early numbers. And for a single weekend(might go a full week following 28th June) it's an achivable thing. Since competiton except Aladdin is very week (basicly every blockbuster movie flopped), and even Aladdin is exausting it's engine and it's a Disney film. So there is time and space and possibility for Endgame to make one last trick(pun intended) and show 🙂 . Call me crazy, an idiot and make any other insult you can come up with, but if Disney(the current Juggernaut and Behemoth of movie industry) manages to make a dramatic screen number increase to a first week levels in US even 350 million weekend might have a chance(I know it's an you_should_get_help , you_should_be_banned_from_box_office_projection_profession_for_a_lifetime, but in theory it could happen) 🙂 . To repeat myself again, US expansion will be the main driving force here. About projection my wild guess was 30 million weekend in US and when I did some calculation it proved that it wasn't that wild after all. Let me show you but only for the US. By Box Office Mojo Endgame is currently being shown in 1450 theaters in US. If we asume that the number won't drop due to expansion next week and stay the same(also no increase in screen numbers) and asume it will show in one lounge/room/auditorium(which I asume is the current situation around the world) for 2-3 times a day during 28th, 29th and 30th June we can get following numbers. I also use the size of largest movie room/lounge/auditorium/screen(I don't know exact word) in Cineplexx multiplex in my city which has 301 seats and let's round it on 300 seats. I'll asume that each theater out of 1450 will have a projection atended by 300 people(so full auditorium/screen/room/lounge) when Endgame expansion premiers. Given the sizes of some screens in US my calc might even be a lowballing, cause I asume that for the period of 28th-30th of June Endgame will at least be transfered from smaller screens to larger (even if number of screens stays the same) and have full multiplexes of people going to see Endgame. Also I'll use an average tickest price(by Mojo it's 9.01$) in US so no Imax prices, which again might be a lowballing. Ok let's make the calc. For 2 showing per day we get: 1450 x 2(number of showings) x 3(for all 3 days) x 300 x 9.01 = 23 516 100 $ For 3 showings per day we get: 1450 x 3 x 3 x 300 x 9.01 = 35 274 150 Since Friday, Saturday and Sunday won't be all equal let's round it up on lower end 20 millions for 2 showings per day and 30 millions for 3 showings. Even if increase in number of screen is unlikely i think it's safe to asume that screen number won't drop the following week and since we will have a sort of mini premier 2-3 daily showings are very plausible. Since later night you can have 2 showings in separate screens and one more before the earlier of the two. Or in 3 screens per multiplex in same time. There are many scenarios. Anyway 3 screens garanties the WW crown for sure and i think Disney won't go lower than this, this asuming my projection and not counting possibly (far) more people per theater. So on the 1st of July, by mine scenario we can have 2754b(by 27th of June including also international, since number will probably be lower by Mojo and other for having only US values) + 30 million weekend (3 showings) + 10 million for the rest of the world = 2794b and second scenario 2754 + 20 million + 7 million = 2781b by July the 1st. Anyway disregarding my scenario as complete nonsense I still asume over 2780b by July . Closer to 2785b than to 2780b. And I think US alone can push it there. Rest of the world added, well as I said, for that weekend probably US will cotribute with majority, so 10m from the rest of the world. Even if everything of that flops and US underperforms from my projection I still see gross close to 2785 by July. Cause numbers add up and number of screens won't decrease, might even increase and auditoiums will probably be full of people for that weekennd. It's obvious that this, even with current marketing, will skyrocket for the 28th-30th June weekend and I bet that Feige and Disney are also counting on that. Since it's obvious this only has one weekend chance to give a "little or big" push . To everyone sorry for the wall of text 🙂 .

Given that The Last Jedi from this point on US market made 10 millions more and it had (much) weaker daily grosses (during it's entire run) and Infinity War 23 millions with stronger late legs than Endgame. Safe bet is 14-16 millions more for Endgame with current trend and if this week has good legs maybe even 18 millions. Point is US tank alone is bringing Endgame close to 2.75 billion even in worst case (only 14 millions for 2.745) . At this point I haven't done some analysis for OS (since Endgame opened on all markets simultaneosly, we can't have direct comparison with Infinity War and need to do more work 🙂 ), but somebody mentioned 10 millions. In worst case I don't see OS falling below 5 millions. So 2.75b is locked, and with currents trend 2.755-2.758b is the celling, leaning more towards 2.755b. Anyway that's with the current trend(s). It's highly probable that we might see some late legs in the US market which might push it towards 2.76 and slightly north of it. So in theory 2.76 and slightly more for example 2.762 is the max. And this is obvious just from the simple look at Box Office Mojo Endgame vs Force Awakens table. Anyway since some people are still mentioning Avatar I can't resist but join 🙂 . Avatar's original gross of 2.749b is going down I mentioned that in my first post in this thread(which was also my first post on BOT forums). And that's absolutely independent of worst case, best case scenario for Endgame legs. Endgame is going 2.75b+ and that's and axiom by now. Anyway I see that people are mentioning some other first run gross for Avatar, which is about 2.754b I don't know how accurate is that, since all official numbers i found are 2.749b. But even in case of 2.754b Endgame still has high chance of surpasing it(although it will probably be the tighest photofinish in history of box office 🙂 ) . I firmly belive that in it's first run Endgame is grossing 2.755b+ so in some case WW crown will be taken 🙂 (going by first runs). Considering potential re-release for absolute taking of the WW crown I can only say that it would be even more uncertain race than first run vs first run. Now to say something about Avatar's sequel, which people also bring up and still have extremly high expectations. As I mentioned in my first post Avatar 2 will gross no where near 3b let alone 4b. Also in my first post I mentioned that Godzilla 2 will break 1b WW (🤣), and I haven't mentioned in the thread but expected Aladdin to be another 1b WW (which was far more plausible than Godzilla), so anyone is free to downplay my projection skills as much as he wants 😎😁 . I'm mentioning this because in my failed projection(Godzilla 2 ) and expectation(Aladdin) I was making asumption based on emotions and not by checking the actual empirical data (in case of Godzilla) or pop culture phenomenon power those two movies had. That same mistake(s) are being made by Avatar fans. Let me make some obvious things clear. 1. First. Avatar hasn't left any pop culture footprint even if it was the highest grossing movie of all time. Titanic left far greater pop culture footprint than Avatar, not to mention Star Wars or MCU. And in case for making a film series which are going to break every record you need a strong pop culture base(especially nowdays) 2. Second, Avatar revolutinised 3D, but more importantly made 3D popular again. We have been promised that Avatar 2 will also revolutinised 3D, but point is it won't make it more popular than it is. And making "3D popular again" was one of the main driving forces behind Avatar's impressive run and the primal thing which helped Avatar have week to week rises instead of drops for some time and stayed number 1 for a very long time. And mark my words Avatar 2 when released will have only week to week drops. 3. As I mentioned in my first post now is the time of expanded universe blockbusters(for furthere info you can check it). Avatar sequel only has 10 years gap, the fact it's another James Cameroon movie and sequel to the (currently) highest grossing movie of all time. That's far less "wind in the back" that Force Awakens had and it barely passed the 2b mark. Like it or not the era of Jim as the box office king is over, now comes the era of Expanded Cinematic Universes. And in this era MCU will reign, DCEU could follow if it stands on it's legs. Star Wars will be some minor royalty and Avatar will lose territory 😃 . Case could be made for Duneverse(if 2020 entry proves succesfully and they decide to adapt all books). Elric of the Melnibone verse could become massive(Doctor Who is part of Elrics Multiverse/Omniverse) if done in the right way and more importantly in the right time. Some of the most famous and popular anime and manga series (if done properly and in the right time), Silmarilion or simply franchises joining forces , for example having expanded universe with: James Bond, Jason Bourne and Ethan Hunt... Uff I've gone off-topic again 🙂 . To make it short. Avatar 2 is going no where near 3b let alone 4b 🙂 . Me saying that Godzilla 2 will break 1b WW was more plausible than Avatar 2 breaking 3b. Four billies I won't even comment. Just for the record, to repeat myself(from first post) Avatar 2 celling is around 2b. Personally I see it between Infinity War and Force Awakens, with domestic:OS similar to Infinity War but slightly more, maybe even surpasing slightly FA. But it surely won't surpass Titanic. And all of that is in case Avatar 2 is a good movie. If not, slightely more than Jurassic World. Also sequels will go lower . Will be similar to Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. But if all Avatar sequels are good movies then Avatar 5 breaking 2.5 billion is very likely.. Also about 3b barrier. It will be long time until it's broken. And another MCU entry is candidate number 1 for breaking it so far. For people who think that 2b is becoming a new norm. Well think again. 1b WW barrier still isn't 100% norm for 5 out of 10 highest grossing movies per year. In matter of fact it only happened last year and in 2015. Should happen this year also, but in 2020 is not certain. So we still can't say that at least 5 movies per year are grossing over 1b WW with certain. And then there is 1.5b which needs to become a norm. Surely from time to time there will be some 2b barrier breaking but we are at least 2 decades away from it becoming a norm. Sorry for the wall of text and off topic themes, but interesting themes were opened and I wanted to adress them.

2014 Godzilla made almost 530 millions WW. King of the monsters has much more hype on it's side, resulting in more people eager to see it. Even people who weren't interested in first one or aren't interested in sci-fi especially kaiju genre were excited by trailer and will see it in theaters. Anyway we will see in several days will it go on the path to 1b ww.

Just a random post from a guy who doesn't have an account, but follows this topic, before mods ban words Titanic, Avatar and juggernaut. Endgame is locked to beat Avatar's original gross of 2 749 millions. About taking the WW crown, seems impossible now, but we will se. Comparing Endgame and Avatar they both have advantages and disadvantages compared to each other. For example, Advantage of Endgame over Avatr is bigger market nowdays, more platforms for marketing and inflation. And in Avatar's case it's exchange rates, lack of blockbusters(competition), longer run, revolutionizing 3D for that time(which was the main driving force), less piracy(even before US premier of Endgame you could find it online) ... I'e mentioned those examples just for the record, since pretty much all of them are familiar to all of you. Anyway the main reason I'm posting this is the fact that people here tend to overhype the future performance of Avatar's sequel. That movie won't break any records, mark my words. It's top gross will be somewhere around 2b. It will probably fall short of Infinity War. And breaking the 2b barrier won't be 100% done deal. And it's sequels will fall behind 2b. It would be the same as TFA and The Last Jedi. Or FF7 and FF8. Reason for that is simple. All those advantages Avatar had won't translate to it's sequel. Face it people we are now living in blockbuster era. Competition is much more harsh than in 2009. We have blockbusters in every season of single year. No movie can remain on top of the charts for more than one month, period. More importantly it's not just simple "blockbuster era" . It's an "expanded universe blockbuster era" . MCU changed everything. It has revolutionaside the cinematic expirience with the concept of expanded universe. Avatar doesn't have such expanded universe. It can certanly be made, but it will pale in comparison to the 60+ years rich library of Marvel. And main driving force behind Avatar 2 is the fact that it's the sequel to the highest grossing movie and another Jim's entry after long time. On the other side many people followed MCU because of expanded story, not cause those were an excellent movies(most of them are awfully bad, but telling a story via many movies was interesting) like Titanic or ROTK. And many more are desperate to know that happens in Phase 4. Also the main driving force behind behind Avatar's impressive run "it's impressive 3D"(for that time), won't be on the side of sequel. Heck MCU will be the new Avatar considering the 3D. The reason behind that is the fact that when they introduce characters like Silver Surfer and Galactus we will be seeing action on a cosmic scale. And not just some random action, but planet destroying, star destroying and possibly galaxy destroying feats of that characters(like in the comics). That would be cinematic expirience without equal in the history of cinema. It would have far greater effect that revolutionising 3D and special effects of Avatar in it's era or Titanic in it's era. In shorts words this Infinity Saga of Marvel is simply a snack before breakfast. And pales in comparison to what we can expect to come. For example Godzilla King of the Monsters has probably the most spectacular special effects in cinematic history so far. Giant monsters having battle with city wide destruction is the driving force behind all the hype for that movie. And that will help it break the 1b ww barrier. Mark my words Godzilla KoM is breaking 1b ww. Cause people are going nuts over the fights seen in trailers. No other movie in history so far has offered such detailed and impressive fight scenes/special effects. I'm betting that we might see some minor "Avatar word of mouth effect" with Godzilla 2 which could result in rise instead of drop in second or third week in some markets. Now imagine what impressive and grandiose things Marvel has to offer with it's Cosmic-centric characters. Face it the only other franchise which can compare to Marvel juggernaut is DCEU if the manage to finaly put all pieces togather. For considerable time in future only Avangers/ other MCU titles will top Endgame and Avatar and break some other barriers like 3b. James Camerron can't offer anything to compare MCU having impressive cosmic fight in it's future entries. Sure he might direct another 10+ Oscars movie, but his reign ans box office king is finished. Unless Kevin Feige hires him 😃. Considering MCU, if they do several more arcs in following decades like Infinity Saga we could very likely have the first 100+ billion dollars movie franchise in history of cinema. And that's not something farfetched. It's certanly far more plausible than some 4b+ predictions of Avatar sequels. On the side note. I don't consider myself a prophet. Predictions I made here are my opinion which I consider to be extremely highlikely. Of course I could be 100% wrong, but considering the reasearch I did, my predictions will be very plausible. Sorry for the wall of text and if it contains grammar mistakes. English is not my first language, I was writing on the phone and grammar mistakes are companions to the esseys 😃.