Liiviig 1998

Moana has post TG Monday drop of 57% . Which is literally steeper drop that all the comps you have used . Sub 40% drop seems optimistic. Wish was pretty much dead by third weekend, same for strange world . Numbers for those were already small to begin with. Ralph didn't exactly light the box office either. Moana 2 was a very huge opener with OK WOM so it's still kind of dropping off. Expect Mid 40s drop pretty much In line with frozen 2 Will see but don't think it's getting to frozen 2 numbers Dom. Mufasa /sonic is going to affect this.

Well I thought this was going to do 100m dom Then just saw the first trailer and it looked like the most boiler plate thing I've seen. Original LOTR is one those projects in time where everything aligned . Passionate director ,creative team,cast . All three films concurrently shot . Big risk at the time . It all paid off so beautifully. Hobbit was mediocre effort,same for the Amazon show. Can't wait for the gollum film to suck. Don't think it will ever be replicated.

Honestly have no problem with the 5D tessarect . Wouldn't call it fantasy . It's more based on elements of string theory(10 dimensions existing) . Yeah the movie is grounded but we also have them going through a wormhole (theoretical) . I do agree it just feels a little too convenient and should have been place in a little better. But the whole love monologue by Hathaway felt forced and so out of place especially that they had to make a logical decision to choose which planet to go to . Then the ending showing she was right all along based on " love" was kind of annoying and forced as hell. Still an 8/10 movie.

Using the wish comp . Gets it to 58m . So definitely wouldn't rule it out . Expect later updates for number to be closer to 13. If it comes in the 11 range .see like 11.5-11.7ish which should still be good for at least low 50s weekend.

Wait for charlie numbers. But even Moana getting to 60m off 11-12m Friday is ehh. Using sat sun comps. Moana 48-52m weekend. Frozen 2 - 50-55M weekend Ralph2. - 49-54M weekend Frozen 2 and Ralph 2 jumped a little over 100% on Sat and sun drop range was 30-33%.

This opened big . So shouldn't really worry . Still think it will do around low to mid 50s. And get past 500m. Never saw those 70m+ predictions. Especially with it's reception.

Using Moana 1 as a comp seems like setting up one for disappointment. It jumped like 240% on Friday and almost 100% on Saturday. Don't see that kind of jump esp for Friday. and it was coming off like 85m five day. This had a gigantic splash. Happy with 55-60. For 70m weekend. Will need to see that fri number. Wicked 48-52m

Pretty solid and dug the whole goonies and pirate vibe and setting. Opening scene was ANH type good. Ending to second episode was ehhh. Don't know how to feel about it , will see where it goes.

Nah . It's not opening that big . Domestic should be around Cinderella or a little more (220ish) if Wom falls in line. OS will be below Cinderella. Even with poor wom . Think it will be 100m+ domestic grosser. 300-500m

Frozen 2 was pre COVID . When tue jumps were large. Post COVID not Soo much . Wed drop will smaller than frozen 2 . So should just about even out.

See a 3 day of around 70-75m. Even an A- is not exactly best for MCU these days( black widow). OS can go as high as 300m but even low as sub 200m. TLM had Europe to help it out . Don't think This has that advantage. Really needs WOM especially OS. Domestic side is what will prevent this from being marvels/ flash type run. Will go 185/400m.

2023- The year of unexpected epic bombs. 2024 - unexpected over performances. 2025 just about feels like how 2024 felt at the start of the year. All the sure fire hits are in the fall, summer just about looks the same , Lilo and rebirth are expected heavy hitters, F4,elio,superman,final reckoning we don't know what we are quite getting. March kinda sucks compared to this year . 2026 is a fucking leviathan.

Frozen 2 did gangbusters OS. But domestic was just good (19% increase). Personally found 8.5m/130m OW ehh for the kind of sequel it was even with just fine WOM. Moana is just around the same WOM but that's not detering it's OW from just exploding. IO2 ,Super Mario exploded on OW . Expect Zootopia and Shrek to do so. For some reason despite all that massive hype frozen 2 just didn't take off as expected domestically.

So predictions for upcoming animation. Moana 2 -225/550-600/1.2-1.3B Bad guys 2 - 45/150/400m Elio -50/175/500M Zootopia 2 - 200+/600-650+/1.3-1.5B Super Mario 2 - 175/500/1.2B TS5 - 120-135/375-425/975-1.02B Shrek 5 -200-250/550-750/1.4-1.7B BTSV - 145/435/800M+ Frozen 3 -175-190/475 -550/1.3-1.4B Frozen 4 - stays flat or moderate increase from 3. Minions 3 - 350/900M+ Incredibles3 - 175/580/1.2B

TS5 is not in the same category as inside out 2,Shrek 5 or Zootopia 2. Should perform in line with TS3/TS4 or less depending on how strong Shrek is. Expect frozen 3 to perform much the same (TS3 to TS4 % type increase) . Incredibles 3 is going to drop from 2 domestically.