Starphanluke
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Everything posted by Starphanluke
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2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
Starphanluke replied to The Wild Eric's topic in Box Office Discussion
I know I'm biased, but I still think y'all are pretty wildly under-estimating Transformers. That trailer generated a LOT of buzz (more than Guardians or Indy, which dropped on the *same day*), and massive trailer views. While trailer views don't always translate to BO receipts, it's at least promising. It also really took off on TikTok which, as you know, can really elevate stuff. It just hit me that the kids who grew up on the original 2007 movie are now entering an age to be a big demographic for movies like this. I think nostalgia could help it, too. If the movie can get a release in China, I absolutely think $800m is in play. -
2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
Starphanluke replied to The Wild Eric's topic in Box Office Discussion
There are some absolutely WILD predictions in here. I adore Dune (my favorite book and book series of all time) and am so thrilled it found success in a time when not a lot of movies were, but not a chance in HELL it gets anywhere close to a billion. I think it can definitely improve over Part 1 and get to $600m-ish, which is a great number for an auteur, heady Sci-Fi movie. The Marvels is defininitely hard to predict without the Endgame factor plus the fact that Ms. Marvel is low-key bombing on D+. Still, under $600m seems insane to me. We'll see. And Transformers opening to only $35m and grossing under $100m domestic just isn't happening. I think it will at least top The Last Knight domestically and worldwide (assuming Paramount can secure a Chinese release). I've heard good things about it--Paramount really just needs to find it a date where it can compete. I will agree with some of you that the Hunger Games prequel will bomba. The book is DREADFUL and has none of the qualities fans of that series would want in a movie. -
2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
Starphanluke replied to The Wild Eric's topic in Box Office Discussion
Honestly, I feel like Paramount should move Transformers to April. If it is even halfway decent, it could do fine there. Otherwise, it's going to get buried in June. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Starphanluke replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Interesting. I suppose that is a pretty good comparison. Maybe my hunch is wrong, then. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Starphanluke replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
The interesting thing about relying so heavily on walkups, though, is that there's another movie playing that still has incredible momentum and WOM. That could easily sway people into seeing Top Gun instead. Of course, we don't know yet how WOM will be for this one, but I'm not super confident in it. To use Fallen Kingdom as a baseline: was there another wildly popular/highly-regarded movie out at the time that was doing big box office? I genuinely can't remember. Anyway, theatres in my area are looking pretty empty (outside of the earliest premium screenings) so far for Dominion, but I didn't check before Fallen Kingdom, so I don't have a great point of comparison. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Starphanluke replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Basically, anything that can go wrong will go wrong... unless you're Disney -
What's interesting about DS2 next weekend is that Top Gun may not be targeting that exact same audience, but Stranger Things and Obi Wan are out next weekend, and those do target similar demographics. Will be an interesting test to see if compelling streaming content can actually sway people's theatre-going habits.
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Everything, Everywhere having some super good weekdays. Love to see it.
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Oh hell yeah. It's showing at my local IMAX--just grabbed tickets.
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I'm probably biased (love me some Transformers), but I'm not so sure of this. Hell, there's been a resurgence of nostalgia for the first Bay film recently. If it could hit just the right vibe, I think RotB could hit around $600-$700m (assuming it gets released in China).
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What time is Universal, again?