Jump to content

Ronin46

Free Account+
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,032

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Ronin46

    Mar 24 - 26 weekend thread - John Wick ̶3̶ 4 opens - woke up to a 5.9 monday | Jonathan is in Majors trouble | Shazam 2 crushed the Ant |

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    DL

     

    FRIDAY MIDDAY: As of right now, Lionsgate’s John Wick: Chapter 4 will be north of its high-end $70M projection in the low $70Ms, after a $30M Friday at 3,855 theaters. That’s easily the best opening day ever for a John Wick movie, bound for a franchise record stateside debut. Amazing when you compare the opening day to the fourthquel to 2017’s John Wick: Chapter 2 which posted an opening weekend of $30.4M. There’s a lot of weekend left so it’s going to be interesting to see how high this goes in the late night hours and into Saturday. While John Wick 2 saw a +4% uptick between Friday/previews and Saturday, John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum saw an ease between its Friday/previews of $22.6M and Saturday of $19.6M. Rotten Tomatoes’ critics and audience scores just keep getting better every time you refresh the fourthquel’s page — how often do we see that? Rotten Tomatoes critics scores normally go down, not up. RT critics is at 96% certified fresh with an audience of 97%.

     

    Also, can we say: John Wick: Chapter 4 is the best opening for Lionsgate in the post Covid era.

    Rest of the box office is as follows per industry estimates:

    2.) Shazam! Fury of the Gods (WB) 4,071 theaters, Fri $2.4M, 3-day $9.05M (-70%), Total $45.6M/ Wk 2

    3.) Scream VI (Par) 3,355 theaters, Fri $2.5M, 3-day $9M (-48%), Total $90.4M/Wk 3

    4.) Creed III (MGM) 3,207 theaters, Fri $2.3M, 3-day $8M (-48%), Total $140.5M/Wk 4

    5.) 65 (Sony) 2,786 theaters, Fri $775K, 3-day $2.9M (-50%), Total $27.5M/Wk 3

    • Like 2

    Mar 24 - 26 weekend thread - John Wick ̶3̶ 4 opens - woke up to a 5.9 monday | Jonathan is in Majors trouble | Shazam 2 crushed the Ant |

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

    Also, a 4th film making twice the DOM total of the first film and nearly the total of the second in its OW is nuts. 

     

    They really had no idea the movie was going to be successful. The first test screenings went badly and Keanu apparently called his agent and thought his career was basically over. They did a few edits and the rest is history. 

     

    • Like 3

    Mar 24 - 26 weekend thread - John Wick ̶3̶ 4 opens - woke up to a 5.9 monday | Jonathan is in Majors trouble | Shazam 2 crushed the Ant |

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, stripe said:


    April will be quite solid. Mario should gross 250M+ through the month and there's D&D, that could hold very well to gross near 100M or even more. Add in JW4 sure to be solid run (90-110M), and late runs for Creed, Shazam! and Scream (easily combining 50M+). That's 500M before thinking in the rest of the schedule.

    There are many wide releases, and a couple of them look like 25M+ grossers to me: AIR, The Pope's Exorcist, Renfield, Evil Dead Rise. Watch out if just one of them overperforms.
    I don't get why there is a sentiment April has a weak calendar. It has 13 wide releases acording to the-numbers! The market needs to offer more variety of movies.

     

    I expect Renfield and Evil Dead to be 50M grosses.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Box Office Report

     

    Rank Film (Distributor) Weekend
    Gross     		Total
    Gross     		%
    Change     		Week
    #
    1 John Wick: Chapter 4
    (Lionsgate)     		$78.5 M $78.5 M NEW 1
    2 Shazam! Fury of the Gods
    (Warner Bros. / New Line)     		$11.2 M $48.0 M -63% 2
    3 Creed III
    (MGM)     		$9.0 M $141.5 M -41% 4
    4 Scream VI
    (Paramount)     		$8.5 M $90.0 M -51% 3
    5 65
    (Sony / Columbia)     		$3.2 M $27.8 M -45% 3
    6 Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania
    (Disney)     		$2.6 M $210.0 M -38% 6
    7 Jesus Revolution
    (Lionsgate)     		$2.3 M $49.3 M -34% 5
    8 Cocaine Bear
    (Universal)     		$2.2 M $62.3 M -44% 5
    9 Avatar: The Way of Water
    (Disney / 20th Century)     		$1.65 M $680.7 M -21% 15
    10 Champions
    (Focus)     		$1.35 M $13.4 M -57% 3
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    John Wick: Chapter 4 | March 24, 2023 | RIP Lance Reddick

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

    GAGGED these bitches.

     

    A lot of folks may be up in arms, but you clocked.

     

    Horrible people aren't deserving of any notoriety or platform.

     

    Your quoting someone from 2 years ago to bring up Mel?

     

    The movie is about to release, it looks great and is going to open huge. Talk about Mel another time if you have to (please dont, since it has nothing to do with this movie). 

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Box office pro

     

    Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 26 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
    John Wick: Chapter 4 Lionsgate $74,300,000 $74,300,000 ~3,800 NEW
    Shazam! Fury of the Gods Warner Bros. Pictures $13,800,000 $51,100,000 ~4,071 -54%
    Scream VI Paramount Pictures $10,400,000 $91,900,000 ~3,400 -40%
    Creed III MGM $7,700,000 $140,600,000 ~3,200 -50%
    Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Disney & Marvel Studios $2,800,000 $210,400,000 ~2,000 -34%
    65 Sony Pictures / Columbia $2,700,000 $27,300,000 ~2,700 -54%
    Jesus Revolution Lionsgate $2,500,000 $49,600,000 ~2,100 -28%
    Cocaine Bear Universal Pictures $2,100,000 $62,300,000 ~2,300 -47%
    Champions Focus Features $1,900,000 $13,900,000 ~2,300 -39%
    Avatar: The Way of Water Disney & 20th Century Studios $1,500,000 $680,600,000 ~1,000 -29%
    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation $1,300,000 $184,600,000 ~1,500 -16%
    • Like 5
    • Thanks 3

    Weekdays thread Mar 20-Mar23

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, harry713 said:

    Scream should collect about 6m mon-thurs this week, putting it around 82m. 

     

    wknd 3: 8.6m (-50%) - 90.5m

    week 3: 3m (-50%)

    wknd 4: 4.3m (-50%) - 97.8m

    week 4: 1.5m (-50%)

    wknd 5: 2.2m (-48%) - 101.5m

    week 5: 800k (-47%)

    wknd 6: 1.2 (-45%) - 103.5m total

     

    Barring a complete collapse it looks like 6 will surpass the 103m gross of the first film to become highest domestic total in the franchise. 

     

    Its tracking similar to the last Scream which had 41% drop 3rd weekend and 34% drop 4th weekend. 

     

     

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread - 3/17-19 | Weekend Est. - Shazam II $30.5M, Scream VI $17.5M, Creed III $15.4M, LXV $5.8M, #AintMan $4.1M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

    AM3 is scraping to get 2x and it’s part of the mighty MCU. You really think this movie no one cares about and the studio is dumping on streaming less than a month after release is going to beat that multi? No way it hit 2x. It’s just a matter of how low in the 1s does it go? 

     

    No way it gets to 60M? It will almost certainly get there. Its not going to be 1.7x and 51M as you think. 65-70 is the likely range. 

    Weekdays thread Mar 20-Mar23

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

     

    You're forgetting the 2 future weeks of more K-12 spring break around Easter...just like Ant Man got the "I'm bored and want a super" crowd last week, Shazam should get the same then, b/c Ant Man won't be around anymore...

     

    Mario will be taking up a lot of air, but not all the air...

     

     

     

    That will be after its 3rd weekend. Might gross 6M on that weekend and be doing less than 500k per day by those weekdays. 10% weekday increase from spring break is not going to do a lot by then. Wick will wipe it out this weekend and D&D after that.

    • Like 1

    John Wick: Chapter 4 | March 24, 2023 | RIP Lance Reddick

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

    One thing that I'm seeing pretty consistently is that pre-sales are strong THROUGHOUT the weekend, not just on Thursday. In fact, in many cases, Friday is twice as strong as Thursday, and Saturday is even above Thursday. I think legs throughout the weekend will be good.

     

    If this can manage 8M previews, I think 70M is a done deal, and even approaching 80 is possible.

     

    I think the long run time will mean a good multiplier from previews.

    • Like 1

    Weekdays thread Mar 20-Mar23

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

    Not so sure about that. The entire run would have to go under something like 75 mil for that. It could have horrible legs and still conceivably get 76 mil from a 30.1 mil OW.

     

    2.5x is not "horrible legs". 70 looks like the max at this stage.

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept