ThePrinceIsOnFire
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Posts posted by ThePrinceIsOnFire
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It's safe to say that out of all its international markets only in France this is outpacing Aladdin, right?
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On 5/27/2023 at 11:37 AM, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:
Yes but that had 2 days of previews already, while I guess the front loaded effect will affect friday here since it is the opening day. We shall see but I don't see it surpassing Aladdin.
On 5/27/2023 at 11:11 AM, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:Oh ok I guess the anglo world really is the saving grace for this movie. USA+ UK + AUS should be higher than Aladdin, while elsewhere it flops. France might be an exception but Aladdin's opening was dismal there so it's not really a good ground to work on.
EDIT:
https://www.screendaily.com/news/aladdin-wins-uk-box-office-battle-with-57m-weekend/5139938.article
I've found this article.
Aladdin's 3 day fri-sun gross was £5.7m. How big of a Jump is expected for TLM Sat-Sun? if it stays flat and does Friday X 3 it ends up at £4.7m.
Stayed flat in the UK with a £1.7M satturday. Won't match Aladdin, just as I expected.
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1.220M For TLM day 4 here in Italy.
Total gross so far : 3.090,144 M Euros.
Comp at day 4:
- 1M Euros VS Aladdin (ended its run with 15.5 M)
- 300K vs Dumbo (ended its run with 11M)
- 400K vs Maleficent (ended its run with 14 M)
Terrible day 4 for TLM. Faring worse than Maleficent and Dumbo at this point. A sub-10 milion total likely to happen. An utter flop.
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I can't speak for other countries, but here in Italy the "disney remakes fatigue" is real.
Each and every remake has had diminishing returns, with the exception being The Lion King, but even then that didn't break out as much as it did in our neighbour France or Spain.
Aladdin was just good here, despite the classic animated movie being one of the most beloved.
Actually, TLM does not have the same level of crossover appeal compared to TLK, BATB and Aladdin. They used to be broadcasted on national tv for Christmas holidays, and TLM used to get some of the worst ratings out of the bunch (which also included Cinderella and other). The main reason, I believe, is that over time TLM has been marketed as a little girls movie, or an exclusively female-targeted product, much like Barbie. Beauty and the beast, instead, was always presented as a more mature movie that had a love story at its core.
So speaking from my (southern) european perspective, there are many reasons for the underperformance. Of course, the changes have also drawn a very negative response online, but mostly out of the sake of "protecting" the european folklore (for as strange and absurd as it might sound). The fact that the movie has been shot in Sardinia yet set in the Carribean has also been heavily criticized (why shoot in our beautiful mediterran landscape when the carribean is closer to the USA where the production hails from?).
People have also been critic towards the actress, but that's more because of the beauty standards that are prevalent here rather than for any other racial issue.
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Let's just look at the numbers:
this is underperforming in every market when compared to Aladdin, except for:
-USA
-UK
-AUS (roughly on par with aladdin, it seems)
-France (it's playing slightly above Aladdin but that had a disastrous OW).
With Japan not being a factor yet and no reliable data on Brazil (though it looks like it could perform on par with Aladdin there)
Now, we can have whatever opinion on it, but it looks like, just analyzing the data, that "the little mermaid" is simply a much weaker brand than Aladdin, pheraps because it is very much a "girls only" thing.
The anglo world seems to be an exception to that.
Live actions remakes fatigue is also a solid argument given the diminishing returns.
Personally, nothing about this movie's performance is shocking to me. I've said months ago (years ago, even) that the international public is tired of these remakes because they really aren't good quality products and mostly exist just as unnecessary cash grabs.
Staying more faithful to the traditional traits of the characters, casting someone who is really famous or who has the conventional western/eastern beauty features might have helped quite a bit but I still don't think that there was enough in the tank for this remake to reach 1B.
Even though these remakes are all independent movies, they are perceived as one big franchise, so the horrible quality of Pinocchio, Peter Pan and Wendy and the other recent live actions does have an impact on TLM's b.o. performance.
Snow White IMHO is going to be the bigger bomb, to the point where I'm starting to wonder whether disney really wants to try a risky theatre release or simply dump it on disney+.
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1 minute ago, jedijake said:
Does your Asia number include China? And did you separate Japan from the rest of Asia? I can't understand the $50 million from Asia.
Yes it includes China, where it should have a total gross of about $2M, so non-relevant really. Japan is listed separatly as JP and with the high estimate of $50M. Based on the Japanese tracking, this should do more like $20-40M end run.
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12 minutes ago, jedijake said:
Assuming $375 million in NO, about $200 million in Europe, you're saying it will pull in less than $100 million in Asia, Latin America, and Africa combined??? (even though Aladdin made $500 million outside NO and Europe)
Even maybe slightly less in Europe (say $150 million total). That still leaves $305 million for the rest of the world and, if Japan makes this fictional number of $220 million, it leaves $85 million. Not saying Japan is making $220 million, but it's reasonable to think that it will spread out more evenly among Asian nations despite what numbers right now may be indicating.
The absoulte high bar for Japan is $50M. Even if it ended up playing close to Aladdin's record numbers,which is impossible, it would gross 100M there. So 150M Europe (which is a tough ask itself unless UK greatly overperforms) + 50M Asia + 50 M LATM//AFR/ARAB + 50 M JP + 20M AUS gets it to 270 OS.
300 M OS would be a miracle and it just won't happen.
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3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
It won’t stay flat though, Aladdin got that £5.7m from a £1.2m Friday. A 4.75x. Most of the other Disney remakes have a similar big multiplier.
Yes but that had 2 days of previews already, while I guess the front loaded effect will affect friday here since it is the opening day. We shall see but I don't see it surpassing Aladdin.
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12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
UK number from UKBoxOffice:
The Little Mermaid £1.57m Friday. Could beat Aladdin’s 5 day opening with just 3 or 4 days.
https://www.screendaily.com/news/aladdin-wins-uk-box-office-battle-with-57m-weekend/5139938.article
I've found this article.
Aladdin's 3 day fri-sun gross was £5.7m. How big of a Jump is expected for TLM Sat-Sun? if it stays flat and does Friday X 3 it ends up at £4.7m
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18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Nope. Aladdin opened with a 5 day, but none of its first 3 days were bigger than The Little Mermaid. TLM could get to Aladdin’s £7.06m 5 day with only 3 days.
Oh ok I guess the anglo world really is the saving grace for this movie. USA+ UK + AUS should be higher than Aladdin, while elsewhere it flops. France might be an exception but Aladdin's opening was dismal there so it's not really a good ground to work on.
EDIT:
https://www.screendaily.com/news/aladdin-wins-uk-box-office-battle-with-57m-weekend/5139938.article
I've found this article.
Aladdin's 3 day fri-sun gross was £5.7m. How big of a Jump is expected for TLM Sat-Sun? if it stays flat and does Friday X 3 it ends up at £4.7m.
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So this is running way behind Aladdin (in most cases even behind Maleficent and Dumbo) in every market except Brazil(we don't have clear data on what's happening there) and France right?
The first day in Uk is 1.6M pounds, is that acceptable? I can't find exact datas on Aladdin but it seems much lower...
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728K For TLM day 3 here in Italy.
Total gross so far :1.861,158 M Euros.
Comp at day 3:
- 400k Euros VS Aladdin (ended its run with 15.5 M)
- 300K vs Dumbo (ended its run with 11M)
= same gross as Maleficent (ended its run with 14 M)
Still playing like Maleficent (obviously the admissions are way lower due to 9 years of inflaction), but that had an impressive day 4 boost. It's running about 20% lower than Aladdin, which would put the total end run at about 12M, spot on my prediction range (9-13M).
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I have a feeling that Deadline's numbers are a bit too high.
The truth is that there are no reliable comps for this one beacause:
1) it is aimed at kids but is also overlong and quite "violent" at times; besides there are many moviegoers who are actually well into adulthood but nostalgic who have reserved a fair share of seats. This makes it harder to consider the preview number in the same way any other family movie would be.
2) it skews almost exclusively female: unlike BATB, Aladdin, TLK, TLM has been overused in merchandising, toys etc... as a "girls only" property. It's much more akin to Cinderella than Aladdin or Maleficent, but Cinderella was at the very start of the live action craze and naturally wouldn't be as front-loaded.
3) It has that whole "much talked-maligned about" movie going for it, that usually pushes people to rush to the cinemas as soon as it opens, may it be for the sake of supporting a black led movie or just out of curiosity.
Because of these factors, I just can't see a 12x Previews memorial weekend happen. I'm confident that this will go way lower than expected on sat, sun and monday.
The way I see it, this ends up with a 90 M 3 days and about 110-115 M 4 days, just behind Aladdin.
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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I think it will do $625M+ WW, which will give DIS $75M+ theatrical revenue surplus over its budget. so need not worry about it flopping.
I'm not completely sure about that. Deadline did this breakdown on BATB revenues and that had a total cost of marketing (175M) + net production (160 M) 350 M total. Assuming it is exactly the same for TLM (which we already know is not the case, since the budget is way higher) it needs about 700 M to get even.
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14 minutes ago, Royce said:
The lack of a globally recognized celebrity is definitely a weakness.
Maleficent without Angelina would've performed lower than Cinderella. Aladdin had Will, Beauty had Emma W. and Alice in Wonderland had Johnny Depp. TLK and JB had the "photorealistic CGI" gimmick.
Now I wonder what the hype and numbers would be like if the rumors became true and Zendaya and Harry Styles really played the lead roles.
As I said in another post, the lack of stars is indeed one of the reasons of the underperformance of this movie at the international B.O.
People here don't care about the singing abilities of an actor, since it gets dubbed by a good singer anyway; they care about the acting bits and wait for a famous actor to play the iconic role. People couldn't care less that Emma Watson wasn't a great singer, they wanted to see Hermione play Belle ever since that ball scene in HP:GOF.
I'm pretty sure that Zendaya+ Harry would have brought way more people in.
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It would be wise for you all to look at the international datas that we currently have before any absurd prediction like a billion or 800M, even.
This is playing more like Dumbo then Aladdin:
*In China, South Korea, India, Honk Kong the data is horrible. Way Worse than Dumbo's (which at least had 20 M coming from China) and not even comparable to the total 200M of Aladdin in the same markets.
*In Europe's big markets so far that's the situation:
- In Italy the first 2 days are significantly lower than Aladdin, the same as Maleficent (2014) and only slightly higher than Dumbo, which had an incredible third day jump (because it opened on a thursday)
- In France it's playing slightly above Aladdin, but Aladdin had a disastrous opening there (only 3 M) and good legs brought it to a decent total (16 M) still way below other live actions like BATB (20+ M) and TLK (75!!!M)
- In Germany it's bound to be slightly lower than Aladdin
Still no info on Spain and the Uk.
*In LATM:Argentina: Worse than Aladdin
Brazil: seemingly better than Aalddin, we need to see if the projections hold up
Mexico: Waaayyyyy worse than Aladdin.
Australia: might have a strong saturday per tracking, but shouldn't surpass Aladdin.
In Eu+Latm it's pacing better than Dumbo, but it's much lower in Asia.
Dumbo had 243M$ total. Little Mermaid MIGHT fare better thanks to UK+AUS+ JAPAN (though Japan seems poised to become yet another flop market) but there is no way that brings this to more than 300M$ OS.Now, even in the "miracle" scenario where this earns 400M DOM and 300M OS its WW total would get it about 700M.
But it is much more likely to end in the 550-650 M range. (i.e. a "quasi" flop given its massive budget).
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20 minutes ago, jedijake said:
I would say that TLM is the crux and apex of the live action remakes. Sure, Zegler may be a draw for Snow White, but SW doesn't scream NOSTALGIA since it was made in 1939. Nobody wants to see a shot by shot remake of it. Lilo and Stitch will be fun and games. I'd say that all the griping and moaning about remakes lives and dies with TLM and most others, especially after SW, will just float away in the wind. It always seemed to be about some of legendary movies (which are better left for D+) and the renaissance films, of which there were really 4 or 5 that truly lasted in people's minds as classics. One of those was remade without being a musical and never got its shot in the theaters (Mulan). The others will always be the focal point of the "controversy" because their animated counterparts were all legendary and their live action remakes will all have been super successful (BatB, TLK, Aladdin, and TLM). Disney won't generate a billion dollar remake ever again after TLM.
I agree, Snow White will suffer from a very botched retelling, with no prince charming and CGI creatures in place of the dwarves, plus a lack of A-listers and stars (Gal Gadot being a very weak draw). Zegler's ethnicity might also cause some uproar as it goes both against the very characteristic setting of the tale (Germany) and the name of the character itself (they will have to find a new spin to it, beacuse "skin as white as snow" won't cut it). Besides, there have been 2 big budgeted Hollywood versions of the Snow White story in the past decade, so the potential for a breakout is very low.
However, I would say that Hercules, if done well and with an all A-listers cast certainly has the tools to surpass TLM WW. Hercules is more of a four-quadrant story which could be liked by boys and girls alike, young and more mature. Moreover, the myths have a built-in fanbase and generate a solid interest in some Eu markets, and the Asian countries responded pretty well to The Rock's 2014 version. It also has the structure of a superhero tale, and while that genre looks to be on a declining path, its core elements might still be popular with the GA.
Tangled and Frozen both also have the chance of faring better than the projected 600 M WW of TLM. Though it is tough to anticipate when and how they will be adapted; Tangled might also be a very hard one to adapt beacause of the hair special effects and the very "cartoony" element it has.
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28 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
think its fine. a bit worse than aladdin is about par expectations imo.
problematic markets for this aren't really european ones but rather asian.
The problem here is that Aladdin underperformed in Italy. It didn't play like the big remakes (BATB TLK) but rather like Maleficent.
So getting less than Aladdin and probably going even lower than Maleficent is quite problematic, in the grand scheme of things.
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16 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
Dumbo's problem was that it tanked domestic. This one won't, so while the OS numbers are mediocre, it won't be a flop. But it won't be a big hit either.
Yes indeed, I meant that Dumbo was an international flop.
This one won't be a complete flop DOM+OS but will hardly recoup its mighty budget and great marketing costs. Deadline had a breakdown on BATB total costs and that had about 360M in expenses production budget+ Marketing costs, with a break-even point at 750 M, roughly.
650 M (350 dom+ 300 OS) should be the high end total WW gross of this one, so it is indeed in trouble. Also we have to consider that the money used for this film was mostly on hold for 4 + years, as it had a longer than usual developement cycle. That is rough on Disney's finances.
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22 minutes ago, vale9001 said:
you're talking like we are months ago and not with the movie already out in most international markets. Numbers are here and they are ok, in some market a little bit worst than Aladdin, in some a little bit better. It's gonna make good to great OS numbers.
No way. Maybe you're focusing on EU numbers (you're a fellow italian if I remember correctly, and here it is doing a bit worse than Aladdin, indeed) but you need to look up Aladdin's B.O., because that underperformed greatly in many markets in Europe, and earned more than half of its money in Asia. Asian markets numbers for TLM are a utter disaster.
This is basically playing like Dumbo, but with slightly better performances in Europe and a worse performance in China.
Dumbo was a flop.
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489K For TLM day 2 here in Italy.
Total gross so far :1.131,714 M Euros.
Comp at day 2:
- 200k Euros VS Aladdin (ended its run with 15.5 M)
= same gross as Maleficent (ended its run with 14 M)
+ 200K vs Dumbo (ended its run with 11M)
So far it's playing like Maleficent (obviously the admissions are way lower due to 9 years of inflaction), but I think it will not have the same legs.
My prediction: total cume in the 9-13M range, depending on the weather in the upcoming weeks.
Basically a flop.
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9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
It's impossible to quantify how much white supremacy played a factor but are we really going to pretend anti-black racism is a non-issue outside the United States?
I'm not saying that it isn't an issue, but I'm pretty confident that with a leading lady who ticked some or all of the boxes that I have talked about in that post, the movie would be way more succesful overseas.
Let's pick Zendaya: she has well known acting talents (Euphoria is huge in many markets), is very popular worlwide and has some facial and physical traits that conform to the beauty standards of many countries. I don't think that her skin colour would be a deal breaker.
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22 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
Ok then how does Halle not fit the role?
Because to me she nails the voice and innocence of Ariel.
I'm sorry but that's not up to me to say, if you read the italian reviews that were posted a couple of pages ago you might find out what some of them think about that. I don't mean to be unpolite, but I won't comment on Bailey's appearance or acting abilities beacause I don't want to end up in trouble with some "royalty" mod😅.
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29 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
What do you see for the weekend?
Anything from 4 to 6M Euros for the 5 days, depending on the weather. If it's a sunny and hot weekend, the numbers will be very low, otherwise there are some chances of getting near Aladdin's 5 days OW which was 6.5 M.
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THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Saturday stayed flat in the Uk with a reported 1.7M punds. It won't match Aladdin's 3 day weekend. This is particularly bad if you consider that Aladdin had a 5 day opening, so the previews/first day rush impacted wednesday rather than friday.
So far, it's playing way lower than Aladdin in every and each market with the exception of USA (though it looks like I was right and that deadline's prediction was way too high) France and, maybe, Brazil.
In Italy it's about 25% down compared to Aladdin, 15% down compared to Maleficent and 10%down compared to Dumbo. Basically DOA.