ReptileDysfunction7

I’ve got: 1. Toy Story 3 2. Toy Story 4 3. Toy Story 2 4. Toy Story It’s really difficult to rank them tbh.

Yeah Buzz was a little...odd in TS4, but still, great film! Wish Jessie and the OG’s had more screen time tho. But I predicted TS4’s gross pretty accurate ($120-130M OW, $420-440M DOM, actual $120.9M OW $434M DOM) not counting my $150M+ OW and $500M+ DOM projections during the crazy high tracking period before it all went back to normal levels.

I would say Frozen II, but for domestic. I know this might attract criticism but hear me out. Frozen made $400.7M back in 2013/2014 off of a $67.4M opening which was absurd legs. But Frozen II just feels like it should’ve done more domestically. I mean not that $477.4M is bad (it's not), but it just felt like an easy $500M+ grosser (Hype comparable to Incredibles 2, prime release date ahead of holidays, holiday boost like the first Frozen), especially after the 2nd weekend of $86M (higher than even Lion King’s 2nd weekend and almost reaching BATB’s $90.4M 2nd weekend). Its post-holiday legs were just all-around lackluster, and its multi (3.66x) wasn’t that much higher than TS4 (3.59x) which is a tad underwhelming considering it had holidays to help bolster its legs, and you would’ve thought it could’ve finished with Aladdin’s multi (3.89x). Overseas ($972.7M) and worldwide ($1.450B) wasn’t an underperformance imo, it did exactly as it should, but domestic it seemed locked to pass Finding Dory, I mean like I stated earlier the trailer views and hype were comparable to that of Incredibles 2, so Finding Dory’s OW ($135.1M) and 500M+ should’ve been an easy target but it missed the marks ($130.3M OW and $477.4M total, which was only $76.7M above the first one when it should’ve been doing close to $100M+ more domestic like it did OS and WW).

Why did Toy Story 4 have much worse August legs than Incredibles 2? Late July-early August TS4 was dropping in the 25-35% range and then mid-August it dropped a hefty 52.5% and then 42.8% the following weekend while Incredibles 2 did just 32.9% and 28.6%. Why is that? Overall drops for each weekend: Weekend 29 I2: -26.9% TS4: -25.8% Weekend 30 I2: -39.0% TS4: -32.8% Weekend 31 I2: -31.4% TS4: -29.7% Weekend 32 I2: -31.1% TS4: -38.4% Weekend 33 I2: -32.9% TS4: -52.5% Weekend 34 I2: -28.6% TS4: -42.8% So basically TS4 starts matching I2’s drops, sometimes even holding better, but then it drops significantly bigger compared to I2 in mid-August. Why is that?

I’m doubting Avatar 2 makes $2B. Sure, the first had such jaw-dropping visuals (some of the best, actually probably THE best, in cinema), but that’s about all that’s remembered about it. If you asked a person details about the plot or to name a character they’d go “huh?”. Avatar 2 might even be lucky to make $1.5B, and I think it just has to pull off something revolutionary to have a run even close to the first one.

The animation was stunning! Like when I first saw some of it I was like “uhhh I booked tickets for Frozen 2 am I in the right movie theater?” The water especially, probably rivaled even that of Moana’s water animation. I’ll just get to the basics: The good: -Animation -Songs (especially Show Yourself) -Soundtrack in general -Olaf recapping the first Frozen The bad: -Kristoff didn’t have much to do sometimes -I could see how Anna could come off as really annoying to some -That it didn’t outgross Finding Dory at the US box office (F2- $477.4M; FD- $486.3M) -That it didn’t reach $500M domestic -That Moana wasn’t the water spirit ;-;

I didn’t hear about the full 2019 film slate until like 2018. Back in early 2017, the only 2019 movies I knew were releasing were A4, TS4, and Frozen 2. Then in 2018, I learned they were remaking TLK, Aladdin, and Dumbo, and I also learnt of Captain Marvel and the Wonder Woman sequel (which got delayed, naturally). But 2019 is likely a year we will never see again for a long time. It looked like a bloodbath from the beginning. Like especially Disney releasing Aladdin, TS4, and TLK near each other. You’d think they’d cannibalize each other trying to each control the family market, but in the end TS4 didn’t dent Aladdin, and TLK didn’t dent TS4 (or Aladdin either). My original predictions back in Fall 2018 were something like this: 1. Avengers: Endgame- $260M OW; $700M DOM; $2.1B WW (underestimated all across the board) 2. The Lion King- $200M OW; $650M DOM; $1.6B WW (overestimated domestic by a little, while underestimating OS) 3. Star Wars: TROS- $200M OW; $640M DOM; $1.4B WW (overestimated by quite a bit, especially worldwide, I expected lower OW but better legs than Last Jedi on the domestic side) 4. Frozen 2- $115M OW; $450M DOM; $1.3B WW (I predicted bigger domestic, but relatively similar OS gross) 5. Toy Story 4- $125M OW; $430M DOM; $1.1B WW (I was actually fairly accurate with this one. The OW of $121M was off about 3% from my prediction so not too bad, but the multiplier was better.) 6. Captain Marvel- $140M OW; $380M DOM; $870M WW (I predicted a similar performance to GotG2; I was obviously off a lot worldwide) 7. Spider-Man: Far From Home- $120M OW; $360M DOM; $900M WW (I predicted slight increase domestic with relatively similar OS grosses, as well as it becoming the first CBM to finish in the $900M range, but this was before they moved the opening to a Tuesday) 8. The Secret Life of Pets 2- $80M OW; $325M DOM; $850M WW (Yep, I overestimated this one big time) 9. Jumanji: The Next Level- $70M OW; $300M DOM; $830M WW (I predicted bigger OW but worse legs) Since I had #10 different for domestic and WW, I’ll do both 10 (dom). It: Chapter Two- $135M OW; $335M DOM, $750M WW (This one was an overestimate; I had it narrowly edging out Aladdin for the #10 slot in the US, with Aladdin taking the global #10 slot for the year) 10 (worldwide). Aladdin- $80M OW; $315M DOM, $820M WW (Yep, I slept on this one, mainly taking into account the bad first few trailers, as well as competition. But this was perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the year, along with Joker and Endgame beating Avatar.) In the end, the results were: Dom: 1. Avengers: Endgame- $357M; $858M 2. The Lion King- $192M; $544M 3. Star Wars: TROS- $177M; $515M 4. Frozen 2- $130M; $477M 5. Toy Story 4- $121M; $434M 6. Captain Marvel: $153M; $427M 7. Spider-Man: FFH- $93M ($185M 6-day since it opened on a Tuesday); $390M 8. Aladdin- $92M; $356M 9. Joker- $96M; $335M 10. Jumanji: The Next Level- $59M; $317M WW: 1. Avengers: Endgame- $2.798B 2. The Lion King- $1.657B 3. Frozen 2- $1.450B 4. Spider-Man: FFH- $1.132B 5. Captain Marvel- $1.128B 6. Joker- $1.074B 7. Star Wars: TROS- $1.074B 8. Toy Story 3- $1.073B 9. Aladdin- $1.050B 10. Jumanji: The Next Level- $797M (sooo close to $800M, I blame it on COVID-19 halting grosses) I blame COVID-19 for halting grosses due to closing of theaters. Had there not been COVID-19, Frozen 2 would’ve likely stretched to $480M, Jumanji: The Next Level would’ve just crossed the $800M finish line like Coco did, and TROS might (I said might) have barely passed Joker.

I loved the 2nd film, not quite as good as the first one but pretty darn close. The animation was spectacular, especially the water scenes in Atohollan, and the forest was pretty well-animated. The soundtrack overall was better than the first, but Disney really had themselves in a bind because they marketed the inferior song (Into the Unknown) vs the better song (Show Yourself) but also because Show Yourself had some spoilers. But I liked the animation in particular.

That would destroy everything from Frozen 2, including Elsa. And Kristoff already proposed to Anna and she accepted.

1. Moana 2. Zootopia 3. Frozen 4. Tangled 5. Frozen II 6. Wreck-It Ralph 7. Big Hero 6 8. Ralph Breaks the Internet

For Thor 4 I could see anywhere from $1B-1.5B. If they have the GOTG in it, it will likely see a bump. So for now I’ll say: $155M OW $410M DOM $1.2B WW

Yeah domestic legs after the holidays were bleh. But it still did...fine I suppose, even if it’s only $477M compared to the $500M+ that people were saying.

The hell? It was more profitable than Lion King?

Yeah it was always going to have more walk-ups as opposed to Dory and I2. But it’s so weird a lot of people predicted sub-$400M before presales, then once tracking came everyone on Reddit jumped on the $600M train, then when tracking came back to normal (I think Deadpool 2 was over-tracked too), it (mainly the OW) was spun as an underperformance. But I think predictions were too high in the first place.

Yeah Star Wars: TROS didn’t necessarily flop but it was for sure a big disappointment. Frozen 2 on the other hand did well, even if it didn’t match the crazy high domestic predictions that people on Reddit had.

I think the problem with Toy Story 4 is it was super overhyped in terms of box office once presales hit. I mean, presales don’t mean jack shit anymore. Solo had bigger presales than freaking Black Panther. And the result? Mega flop. Before these presales I was saying about $120-130M OW and about $420-440M total, which I felt was reasonable. But then the presales hit and I jumped on the $500M+ train and upped my predictions to $150-170M OW and $500-550M DOM so I didn’t look like a fool on Reddit. I think Finding Dory’s OW of $135M was a reasonable ceiling, but $200M was just so obnoxiously unreasonable. Hell even the “reasonable” $140-160M forecasts were unreasonable. Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory just had years of hype, whereas Toy Story 4 was something nobody wanted. What people have to understand is presales don’t mean everything. But perhaps why Disney said $140M during the hoopla is idk maybe they didn’t want to be seen as way too conservative and get laughed at if they’d said like $100-110M. But still, remarkable run for TS4. I mean it started off concerning after OW (in regards to passing TS3), and then it held strong because of great WOM. It just boggles me that it only fell 25.8% when TLK opened, when most thought it would fall hard (probably like 50-60%). After the opening, it went from “oh no it’s a disappointment what a disaster for Disney” to “Wow it’s having strong legs this is a great run it will pass TS3”.

It’s a shame Frozen 2 couldn’t reach $500M. I’m actually shocked it didn’t at least outgross Finding Dory (if we’re being real tho, in terms of quality, F2>>>>FD). But I think after Incredibles 2, the box office forecasts for F2 on Reddit went crazy. Some predicting $200M OW (but let’s be real here, F2 had a much better chance at $200M OW than TS4. Those TS4 OW predictions were way too high and people need to learn that 1st day presales don’t mean jack shit, cus look at Solo. It had better presales than fucking Black Panther and it ended up being a flop.). I didn’t say $200M OW like some people, I was more conservative at $160M (I was saying $500M; $480M when TS4 had its super high tracking) but I think why its OW was sorta deflated is cus many families waited until Thanksgiving to see it, resulting in its strong $86M 2nd weekend. I think its legs were fine, but the post-holiday legs weren’t as good as F1 because F2 had more competition vying for the family audience, like Dolittle, Jumanji: The Next Level, etc, which resulted in...well decent legs but not as good as F1. Had it had a free run like F1, it would’ve made $500-520M probably. Maybe even could’ve challenged Rogue One/Dark Knight/Lion King. But $477.4M is still a solid gross. I don’t think the problem here was the audience reception. Everyone I talked to said it was good, and just as good, if not better than, the first one. I think the problem (as I mentioned above) was it had more competition than F1 (Saving Mr. Banks turned out too dark for families, Walter Mitty was more adult-skewing, and F1 basically had a free run until Lego Movie).