1. If the movie recoups its budget+marketing in theaters then everything that comes after that (PVOD, streaming, home video) is more or less pure profit.
2. Villeneuve is not walking away. And he himself is in no rush to make Messiah so does it really matter if the movie gets announced now or in a couple of months?
Blu-ray sales are a pittance at this point and there's really not a lot of money in streaming if the movie goes to a streaming service owned by the same company that produced the film (no money from a licensing deal).
Which is interesting because they actually got this into production fast (the movie was ready to go just 2 years after the first released) and the budget is not substantially bigger (especially if you consider that all the leads probably got a pay rise).
He really wasn't in this one though. A very subdued performance form him. Not sure if it's because of VIlleneuve's direction or because Walken is getting up in years (correct me if I'm wrong but I haven's seen him in anything in quite a while).
Really don't think that conflict will be determined by a single battle. At the end of the film Paul unleashes the war that will kill billions. The movies are going their own way with this.