JFox

So depressing.

I wish. That would be the biggest box office surprise in some time.

I think people are just sort of thinking out loud here. There's no hard data out there that's making anyone officially change course one way or the other. The only actual data that gave me pause was presales numbers from @charlie Jatinder

That would be pretty early to end Phase 4. I'm terms of actual years gone by but that's because covid delayed everything. Narrative wise that would only leave these titles in Phase 4: Black Widow Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Eternals Spider-Man: No Way Home WandaVision The Falcon and the Winter Soldier Loki What If...? Hawkeye I don't know, maybe given the shows that's enough content to be considered a full phase but for some reason it doesn't feel like a lot has happened. I guess that's because the shows are smaller scale and self contained. Same for the film's outside Spider-Man and Doctor Strange.

Is there going to be a live stre on YouTube for the premiere? Usually there's a placeholder thumbnail hours before but I'm not seeing anything right now....

I will say I hope they get a teaser out for this earlier than usual. Like in April sometime. Might be good for Marvel Studios to get something out there to get people hyped and shake off all the angst that seems to surround it ever since the unfortunate passing of Chadwick.

Really?? I think this whole thing will blow over, as it should. There's not a lot of chatter out there about Letitia's vaccine beliefs. At all. Just scoopers trying to make something a story to rile up the most easily riled up. This is going to be massive next November (hopefully) and I guarantee you Shuri will be a big part of it.

This should be to Spider-Man: No Way Home what Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was to Star Wars: The Last Jedi but sadly the market clearly isn't ready for that level of business (and there's the HBO Max issue to boot). I'll definitely be in theatres on the 22nd for this! Sing 2 will probably be my Boxing Day movie. Maybe the other way around, IDK.

Well however it shakes out, appreciate all the work you guys do. Like I said, best in the world!

P.S. I know this contradicts my earlier statement that I had this just under $200M based on charlie jatinder's presales numbers but when I actually do the math I just can't seem to get to that number based on expected preview numbers.

Fair enough. I mean I could be way off and believe me, I'd be happy to be way off. I guess what I'd like to know is what different people are seeing for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For me that's the indicator.

Right now this is what I have for OW: Thurs 47 Fri 56.4 (2.2 OD multi) Sat 58 Sun 48.1 Weekend 209.5 It's a shame because based on that preview number the OW should be a helluva lot bigger.

Again, this is a pre-pandemic mantra. I mean if a Star Wars movie opened now then yes it would probably be even more frontloaded than an MCU film today but the way theatre going trends are headed maybe MCU films are now going to play out like Star Wars films did.

Well that's a good sign! I may be asking the obvious here, but do you see the holiday legs booming for this? Despite how the OW plays out?

Long time lurker here. With all due respect (and I mean it with the utmost respect because you guys are the best in the world this and I'm just some guy) I don't think there's been enough attention paid to tracking for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday for this film. I don't know about y'all but, anecdotally, my biggest local theatre isn't screaming $200M opener when I look at seating for the true weekend. I also had this just missing $200M (despite all the signs pointing to obvious over the mark) when I saw Charlie jatinder's latest presales numbers. Extrapolating from those when comparing to others have me around $198 million. I think it's safe to say that patterns are changing. For awhile now we've been able to track for previews and have a decently reliable set of "rules" to use to glean a basic framework for the OW from that (ie. With most Marvel movies you could give an OD multi of 3, Saturday +20% of true Friday etc etc). I don't know if that's going to be the case anymore. Of course the coming preview number points to an OW well over $200M but that is based on pre-pandemic rules. Of course having said all this I can still easily see it going over $200M. Not preaching gloom and doom here. Just trying to adjust my internal box office calculator if you will. I've got to throw all the old equations out the window at this point.