[Brazil Box Office Thread]

Unfortunately I don't have the time to track right now 😕

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

3 hours ago, upriser7 said:

(summer holidays or not)

We are in the height of winter here, so no summer holidays over here...

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

6 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

Evolution of Exhibition Rooms - 1971 to 2022*

 Year      Screens
1971       2.154
1972       2.648
1973       2.690
1974       2.676
1975       3.276
1976       3.161
1977       3.156
1978       2.973
1979       2.937
1980       2.365
1981       2.244
1982       1.988
1983       1.736
1984       1.553
1985       1.428
1986       1.372
1987       1.399
1988       1.423
1989       1.520
1990       1.488
1991       1.511
1992       1.400
1993       1.250
1994       1.289
1995       1.033
1996       1.365
1997       1.075
1998       1.300
1999       1.350
2000       1.480
2001       1.620
2002       1.635
2003       1.817
2004       1.997
2005       2.045
2006       2.095
2007       2.160
2008       2.278
2009       2.110
2010       2.206
2011       2.352
2012       2.517
2013       2.678
2014       2.833
2015       3.005
2016       3.160
2017       3.223
2018       3.347
2019       3.507
2020       1.860
2021       3.266
2022       3.401

 

Source: ANCINE

That is very low if you think about it

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

2 hours ago, divesyn said:

thought barbie had showings on wednesday too, i've seen many people on social media that day talking how was the experience

But were just a few, not enough to make a difference unlike NWH.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

22 hours ago, Flamengo81 said:

“Oppenheimer” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-01

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
23	4481	1195	26.67%

 

TOTAL SEATS SOLD

1195

 

COMPS T-01

The Little Mermaid – 1.326x

The Flash – 1.921x (3.44M)

Into The Spiderverse – 1.853x (3.26M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 1.192x (3.71M)

Fast X – 1.224x (6.12M)

 

Absolutely crazy numbers for Oppenheimer too!
The ATP is going to be much higher than everyone else too as this is getting more than half of it's shows at premium screens, the 3 IMAX sessions are absolutely packed. I took a look at the weekend sales and it's also very good. This is going to be an all-time great weekend over here for sure.

“Oppenheimer” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-00

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
23	4481	1246	27.81%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY

51

 

COMPS T-00

Into The Spiderverse – 1.483x (2.61M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 0.946x (2.94M)

Fast X – 0.724x (3.62M)

 

This might sound like a bad day on the surface, but remember it's Thursday release and no Wednesday, so it's 5 hours~ less of tickets solds. The allocation is also a big factor, since it has basically half of the other movies showings. The comps should definitely be a underindexing too, since this has a much higher ATP than the rest. Given the Thursday vs Wednesday release, the big difference in allocation and in ATP, It's definitely very tricky movie to predict. If I had to guess, I think this is probably doing around 3.8M with a 0.5+/- margin.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

23 hours ago, Flamengo81 said:

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-01

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
91	19088	10144	53.14%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

2074

 

COMPS T-01

The Little Mermaid – 11.258x

The Flash – 16.308x (29.19M)

Into The Spiderverse – 15.727x (27.68M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 10.123x (31.51M)

Fast X – 14.65x (51.97M)

 

Here are the insane final numbers. But this comes with a little caveat: the biggest theater basically reseted the showings and so the numbers are lower than what it should be with the previous showings. But it might be a bug (probably is?), so the numbers in reality could actually be a lot bigger. How much bigger? Well, if we use the numbers from these showings at T-03 the total tickets solds would be at 11.214, that is a pretty big difference and it would be even more at T-01. But I decided to use the numbers I am seeing right now and not conjectures, so these are the final results. I will TRY to track tomorrow before shows starts, but it's a tiny possibility. I will definitely take a look to see if the showings remains the same though, just out of curiosity.

 

Analyzing the numbers we have, the only thing I could say is that anything could happen. I could definitely see actual numbers being much lower than what comps suggests, but I would no be chocked with the comps turning out to be accurate either (except for Fast X), Barbie is simply a phenomenom here in Brazil and you can hear it being talked about everywhere, so no matter what the actuals turns out to be, this will 100% be a performance for the ages regardless.

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-00

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
103	21878	13502	61.71%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY

3358

 

COMPS T-00

Into The Spiderverse – 16.073x (28.29M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 10.252x (31.91M)

Fast X – 7.850x (39.25M)

 

It's here! Final mindblowing numbers for Barbie.
I will say it again: I just can't see a scenario where this is not a top 3 opening of all time. Going even further: I think this is beating NWH for the 2nd spot and I would not be shocked to see this actually dethrone Endgame for the number one spot, I think it will depend on the WOM throught the weekend. I don't think we will see such a phenomenon like this in Brazil anytime soon at all. 
 

Ps: I am going Sunday with my girlfriend to see it because she forced me to and because she is going to Oppenheimer with me Saturday 😁

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

13 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer have an audience score so far of 4.1, excelent for both.

 

Looking around the release in several cities, it seens that at least for this first day audiences are vastly feminine (and pink). Even to this day I am still hearing of chains opening more screenings in the last minute to suply audiences.

 

I saw SEVERAL women on the street today wearing pink and everywhere you could hear people talking about the movie. This completely captured the zeitgeist.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

Showings will start in less than 2 hours. Oppenheimer finished tracking with 1.246 tickets solds, that is only 51 since yesterday, but we have to remember that most other comps are Wednesday previews, so showings starts 4 to 5 hours later. Anyway, it's low number today is also likely due to people wanting to watch it at premium screens (that are already packed), so it's expected.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

So guys... I actually managed to track it 😁

 

The theater that reseted the showings and seemed to be bugged came back to normal today, so the T-0 numbers are the real accurate numbers.

Unfortunately, I don't have the comps right now since I am not at home, but I will post the complete final numbers and comps tonight. 

But to the numbers: Barbie sold 13.502 tickets at 103 showings. I don't see any scenario where this is not a top-3 opening of all time and honestly: I am not saying it will happen, but I won't be shocked if this beats Endgame. This is going to be a mind-blowing weekend for sure!

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

“Oppenheimer” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-01

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
23	4481	1195	26.67%

 

TOTAL SEATS SOLD

1195

 

COMPS T-01

The Little Mermaid – 1.326x

The Flash – 1.921x (3.44M)

Into The Spiderverse – 1.853x (3.26M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 1.192x (3.71M)

Fast X – 1.224x (6.12M)

 

Absolutely crazy numbers for Oppenheimer too!
The ATP is going to be much higher than everyone else too as this is getting more than half of it's shows at premium screens, the 3 IMAX sessions are absolutely packed. I took a look at the weekend sales and it's also very good. This is going to be an all-time great weekend over here for sure.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:42 PM, Flamengo81 said:

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-03

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
67	15079	8070	53.52%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

3817

 

COMPS T-03

The Little Mermaid – 24.234x

Into The Spiderverse – 21.293x (37.47M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 13.961x (43.46M)

Fast X – 14.65x (73.23M)

 

I mean... the numbers are the numbers. I don't even know what to say, what the numbers are suggesting is an opening for the ages. Are they "wrong" and this is actually an insane frontloaded movie? Don't know and won't even try to respond that question. 

 

Note 1: By the way, this is with one less Theater since Cinepolis Bela Vista closed this month.

Note 2: The Flash comp will return at T-01, I missed T-03 😕.

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-01

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
91	19088	10144	53.14%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

2074

 

COMPS T-01

The Little Mermaid – 11.258x

The Flash – 16.308x (29.19M)

Into The Spiderverse – 15.727x (27.68M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 10.123x (31.51M)

Fast X – 14.65x (51.97M)

 

Here are the insane final numbers. But this comes with a little caveat: the biggest theater basically reseted the showings and so the numbers are lower than what it should be with the previous showings. But it might be a bug (probably is?), so the numbers in reality could actually be a lot bigger. How much bigger? Well, if we use the numbers from these showings at T-03 the total tickets solds would be at 11.214, that is a pretty big difference and it would be even more at T-01. But I decided to use the numbers I am seeing right now and not conjectures, so these are the final results. I will TRY to track tomorrow before shows starts, but it's a tiny possibility. I will definitely take a look to see if the showings remains the same though, just out of curiosity.

 

Analyzing the numbers we have, the only thing I could say is that anything could happen. I could definitely see actual numbers being much lower than what comps suggests, but I would no be chocked with the comps turning out to be accurate either (except for Fast X), Barbie is simply a phenomenom here in Brazil and you can hear it being talked about everywhere, so no matter what the actuals turns out to be, this will 100% be a performance for the ages regardless.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

Unfortunately the two Cinepolis theaters are offline. Will try to access them later today, but we might not have T-01 numbers 😢

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

Updates later today. But a sneak peak: the showings went above 90 lol

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Yeah I mean, not trying to say it won't still crush all these films, just that those comps are bound to converge down big time without more shows because it looks like Barbie's just going to basically sellout and spillover onto the next days instead

We are on the same page, but even if the opening day get's limited by the allocation the spillover over the weekend will be insane.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

25 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Amidst all the craziness, aren't these comps bound to hit a wall unless theaters really expand this? 53% sold at t-3 is ridiculous, doesn't leave a ton of space for walkups to be big at this rate even with how crazy ps are

The thing is that I don't have the numbers of showings of movies like NWH to compare with. But 67 showings is already much higher than what Fast X had (52) with one less theater available (that would give an additional 10~ screens) and I don't know how much higher it could possibly be, it's already reaching the showings cap IMO. It would be interesting to see numbers in a city like São Paulo which has a gigarnomous number of theaters to see if that is a big issue.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

2 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Compare Mario Bros movie and Barbie movie. Otherwise, you get skewed results . But I get your point haha

Whatever comparisons you make the results are the same, I did this too. If you just compare "Barbie" with "Mario" you get the same results too...

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

Just now, Bobzaruni said:

(what is the limit for this, Avengers record in threat? Does it have the showings for that?)

I started tracking this year, so no Endgame or NWH previews numbers. But with that level of occupancy and this number of showings, unless Salvador is overindexing like crazy and this is somehow even more frontloaded than both, I don't think it's impossible for this to become the highest opening of all time, it might sound madness to say that, but it is what it is.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

Just now, Bob-omb said:

And this is just for the OD isnt it? 

Yes.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

1 hour ago, Bobzaruni said:

I'm trying to do some analysis around Barbie's INT opening, idk what to even put for what I project here. Is 17M~ USD (80M lc) a decent number for OW or double? just roughly

Have no idea, my friend. This movie can't be predicted...

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

On 7/15/2023 at 3:15 PM, Flamengo81 said:

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-05

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
65	13757	4253	30.92%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 4 DAYS

430

 

COMPS T-05

The Little Mermaid – 13.126x

The Flash – 15.298x (27.38M)

Into The Spiderverse – 14.146x (25.37M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 8.697x (27.07M)

Fast X – 10.445x (52.25M)

 

So... The """bad news """ is that Barbie slowed down significantly compared to the previous days and the comps came down to a more realistic, but still mindblowing level. There is an excellent news though: the allocation increased significantly and there is now enough room to accomodate a very likely big final push in these last few days. I probably won't dare to predict a final number on this, but whatever it makes it's 100% going to be phenomenal.

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-03

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
67	15079	8070	53.52%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

3817

 

COMPS T-03

The Little Mermaid – 24.234x

Into The Spiderverse – 21.293x (37.47M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 13.961x (43.46M)

Fast X – 14.65x (73.23M)

 

I mean... the numbers are the numbers. I don't even know what to say, what the numbers are suggesting is an opening for the ages. Are they "wrong" and this is actually an insane frontloaded movie? Don't know and won't even try to respond that question. 

 

Note 1: By the way, this is with one less Theater since Cinepolis Bela Vista closed this month.

Note 2: The Flash comp will return at T-01, I missed T-03 😕.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

My eyes cannot believe the numbers I am seeing. This is crazier than the first update lmao

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

On 7/11/2023 at 9:50 PM, Flamengo81 said:

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-09

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
46	11744	3823	32.55%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 5 DAYS

1964

 

COMPS T-09

The Little Mermaid – 18.379x

The Flash – 20.335x (36.40M)

Into The Spiderverse – 22.356x (39.35M)

Fast X – 16.622x (83.11M)

 

COMPS T-09 x T-01:

The Little Mermaid – 4.243x

The Flash – 6.146x (11M)

Into The Spiderverse – 5.927x (10.43M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol.3 – 3.815x (11.87M)

Fast X – 3.917x (19.58M)

 

 

Just let that sink in...

 

 

 

Note: Added "normal" comps since it's now entering the final stage of the cycle and to give a notion about the pace of this pink monster.

Note 2: In contrast to many other markets, this is getting PLFs around here. No IMAX, but IMAX in Brazil are not too many and make just a small share of PLF screens in it's totality.

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-05

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
65	13757	4253	30.92%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 4 DAYS

430

 

COMPS T-05

The Little Mermaid – 13.126x

The Flash – 15.298x (27.38M)

Into The Spiderverse – 14.146x (25.37M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 8.697x (27.07M)

Fast X – 10.445x (52.25M)

 

So... The """bad news """ is that Barbie slowed down significantly compared to the previous days and the comps came down to a more realistic, but still mindblowing level. There is an excellent news though: the allocation increased significantly and there is now enough room to accomodate a very likely big final push in these last few days. I probably won't dare to predict a final number on this, but whatever it makes it's 100% going to be phenomenal.

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

Will bring updates soon. Both """"bad"""" and good news coming...

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

13 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

is actually similar to the Fast X comp DOM in USD (R$83.11M = $17.12M) 

[Brazil Box Office Thread]

On 7/6/2023 at 8:30 PM, Flamengo81 said:

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-14

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
43	10433	1859	17.82%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

580

 

COMPS T-14 x T-01:

The Little Mermaid – 2.063x

The Flash – 2.999x (5.32M)

Into The Spiderverse – 2.882x (5.07M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol.3 – 1.855x (5.77M)

Fast X – 1.905x (9.52M)

 

 

Well... What about two full weeks more to go? lol

 

How high can this thing go? I think it's in the kind of performance where there is simply no ceilling to it and the momentum could carry it to historic levels. I imagined it would definitely generate some hype at the opening weekend and perform really good for a Greta Gerwig movie, but at this point this is doing all time numbers just based on opening alone even if it collapses after that with bad reception (which is certainly possible).

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-09

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
46	11744	3823	32.55%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 5 DAYS

1964

 

COMPS T-09

The Little Mermaid – 18.379x

The Flash – 20.335x (36.40M)

Into The Spiderverse – 22.356x (39.35M)

Fast X – 16.622x (83.11M)

 

COMPS T-09 x T-01:

The Little Mermaid – 4.243x

The Flash – 6.146x (11M)

Into The Spiderverse – 5.927x (10.43M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol.3 – 3.815x (11.87M)

Fast X – 3.917x (19.58M)

 

 

Just let that sink in...

 

 

 

Note: Added "normal" comps since it's now entering the final stage of the cycle and to give a notion about the pace of this pink monster.

Note 2: In contrast to many other markets, this is getting PLFs around here. No IMAX, but IMAX in Brazil are not too many and make just a small share of PLF screens in it's totality.