Cheddar Please

Tbf this is also Luiz Fernando we are talking about, his predictions are about as precise as me throwing a dart blindfolded after being told which direction to aim in

Honestly I wonder how much Barbie would have done if it had a normal PLF split for a movie its size

Yeah I think aiming for Titanic, AIW, or A2 would be more interesting comparison assuming its on pace to pass 650m once we know more definitively where Barbie is headed exactly

More like further proof that ERC is a non credible source

So far it's more or less been pacing identically to Black panther through the last 15 days (306.5m for Barbie and 304.4m for Black Panther), but keep in mind Black Panther had consistent drops in the low 30% range for the next 7 weeks, so on top of having to match that Barbie would need to make up the 40m deficit that Black Panther has over it's OW to hit 700m, which seems almost insurmountable unless it starts displaying TGM legs in the next few weeks.

Also, would you mind posting a table of your expected weekday weekend grosses? I'd definitely like to take a look at them

That would only be 2 days behind Jurassic World, with Labor Day weekend only a week away @Brainbug

Oh no I agree, I feel like a lot people here, myself especially, tend to miss the forest for the trees. I just don't like it when people frame box office performances in a way that really doesn't stand up

slightly

You do realize that drops don't happen in a vacuum right? How a movie performs is in fact impacted by the circumstances surrounding it, such as competition, lack of screens, etc. Barbie's first and second weekends had different circumstances surrounding them, not to mention that a 40% hold in the first weekend is much more impressive than a 40% hold in let's say the fifth weekend. Also, your tone isn't doing you any favors in this discussion

Barbie has more than a month of essentially no competition outside of Blue Beetle, so I don't know where you're getting the impression that Barbie's legs will suddenly start falling off a cliff. Also "Last week was 43%" is not indicative of a pattern. In fact, it's not indicative of much of anything other than that Barbie has very above average legs (better than The Avengers' 50% drop may I add), especially given that last week was the most competition Barbie will likely face in its entire run. The established trend, or "pattern" is that with a lack of upcoming competition, we would expect Barbie's holds to improve in the following weeks rather than decrease. As a final note you have also been guilty of consistently underestimating this movie, such as questioning whether 600m was locked far after most other people in the know had already accepted that to be the case.

Last week Barbie had to contend with two ~30m openers and it still held at 40%, therefore Avengers territory and 40%+ drops is currently the lower bound, as there is no reason to expect that Barbie would hold worse than Avengers going forward giving that it has held better thus far.

1. Juneteenth Monday 2. SMB had massive weekends and very underwhelming weekdays, it's first 4 weekends were on par with the likes of Black Panther even as it's weekdays fell under much smaller movies

9 10 8.5 8 I'm gonna be a bit optimistic this week as Barbie will not have competition until blue beetle going forwards

I was under the impression that it was due to special circumstances these last two weeks. 1st Tuesday didn't jump due to Mon spillover 2nd Tuesday didn't jump due to TMNT opening. I feel like this week should jump even with Monday being a holiday in Canada, Civic holiday in Canada historically has a negligible impact on Tuesday jumps.

Also as a final note to this debate: Here are some post OW comparisons to Barbie at this point in time (Days 4-15): The Avengers: $209.8m Incredibles 2: $225m Infinity War: $244.3m Black Panther: $249.7m Jurassic World: $251.7m Barbie: $261.4m 600m is LOCKED, end of story, and based on this trajectory, Barbie looks to make anywhere from 470m-520m post OW, which would imply a range of 630-680m, which means that while 650m is not locked, it is a very reasonable expectation at this point in time

Mario's 600m hopes basically required it to match I2s at the time record setting weekdays with near TGM level weekend level holds, which it did manage for its first 4 weeks, yet it still fell behind, with GoTG3 stealing its screens being the final nail in the coffin. Barbie on the other hand has handily matched JWs post OW gross in the last two weeks with killer weekdays, and with no competition on the horizon anytime soon, has a much better chance of matching the necessary drops than Mario did

Keep in mind these last two weekends are the most competition barbenheimer is gonna get for basically its entire run, last week we had Haunted Mansion stealing plfs and both movies still ended up with ~35% drops (subtracting Thursday previews). Meanwhile this weekend we had two 30m+ openers and yet Barbenheimer was still held to a mere low 40s drop. The upcoming weekends will be key in determining the ultimate trajectory of these movies, but I would not be surprised if holds only get better from here

It's never been more over than it is now

at this point the chances of it going under 600m could very well be under it's chances of passing TGM

@M37 It's so over for 24 days

12.7m for Barbie and 5.75m for Oppy from the unicode website

Disney should move The Marvels to December, given that Aquaman 2 is prob gonna bomb, which would allow it to rule Christmas almost uncontested

Tbf Cruise may have been forcing their hand on this one