Cheddar Please
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Everything posted by Cheddar Please
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really? I was expecting the same drop as JW -
Better hold than JW on the same day for DPW 👀
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Tbf he always goes very optimistic on his predictions so is projections are only extremely accurate if the movie is blowing up
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Based on the avg trade underestimation for big event movies lately, I predict the actuals will be quite a bit higher...
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BP: 176M > 111M (-37%)
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Wednesday would also likely be above 1M due to the Apple Pay promotion Assuming Sunday stays even with Friday, extrapolating from last Monday's drop would give a figure of 1.11M, so as long as Thursday can hold within 10% of Monday it would make it to 59 days above 1M, tying Finding Nemo and placing only 2 days behind TPM (which opened on a Wednesday)
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Also for context, counting only true FSS OW makes Deadpool's drop this week look even more impressive: JW: 190M > 106M (-44.3%) A1: 188M > 103M (-45.3%) DPW: 173M > 95M (-45.1%) TLK: 168M > 72M (-57.2%) I2: 164M > 80M (-51.2%)
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With this weekend looking to be 95+ I think it's a safe bet to say that 600M is locked and loaded, heck with strong summer weekdays I'd argue that The Avengers post-OW gross of 415M is practically the baseline at this point.
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PG rating isn't all great though, mostly because it leads to very family skewed audience, which means much lower ticket avg due to an abundance of kids tickets, like IO2 would've basically a 700M grosser if it had a more normal ticket price avg
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It'd be really funny if JW IO2 and DPW all ended up within 5M of each other, especially if IO2 were to kick JW out of the Top 10 and itself immediately get kicked out by DPW
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29M would make the chances of a 100M weekend very likely
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That's what I'm getting from this too, 28 M Friday would definitely imply high 90M range, 100M we probably only be possible if it jumped up to ~29.5M and that's assuming it has basically identical IM as IO2 from Friday
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Unlikely since it's still ~13m behind DM2, which finished at 368M, despite having gained on it very slowly. I think the best case for DM4 for at this point would be matching DM2/Minions 2. There definitely appears to be a hard cap on the series potential gross at this point
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Passion of the Christ 2 😉
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Toy Story 4 declined precipitously from its eighth week onwards so that's not exactly a fair comparison to make
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I'd say around SMB is realistically the modal outcome but also the lower end of the projected range
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Currently it's playing like an MCU Phase 3 movie, aka decent but not amazing trend, also July is when weekend jumps tend to be the weakest relative to the week, come back to me if Thursday ends up being over 20m
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my comparison for this movie currently falls between IW (2.63x) and TLK (2.83x), given that this movie seems to be trending right between those two comps rn we would be looking at a 55-60% drop this weekend, so about 85-95m, probably trending towards the higher end of that range given its decent Tuesday hold
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The funny thing is that TLK and I2 were pacing almost identically throughout the first 2 weeks. It was only when I2 hit July 4th weekend that it pulled ahead and didn't look baack
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Personally I'm seeing DPW doing about 90% JW, so I'd say 18m Thursday and ~90m weekend rn
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Barbie was affected by severe spillover due to Oppenheimer hogging half the screens, so it's not a great comp here, but at the same time MCU films pretty much all have strong spillover effect on Monday so I'm not expecting any notable holds in the coming few days UNLESS Tuesday happens to be up from today
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So it looks like DPW is on track to basically duplicate I2 overall gross DOM and OS huh
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Ideally, it should do 100m third week (63m weekend/37m weekdays) assuming DM4 doesn't hit too hard, and even if it does, July 4th stands a chance at temporarily blunting its impact
